ATL: BERYL - Models

[ColdMiser123]

[Kingarabian]

I feel like the TUTT is one of those things amateurs love to talk about, and in seasons where it sticks around they are 'right' but not because they are right. A major hurricane is it's own system, we'll see how much of an effect it has down the road and how the models handle it.

Agreed.

[Javlin]

CMC is bad bad ignore it it’s worse than navy

IT IS NOT, there is verification to prove it. This is the second time you've been corrected.

I remember Mark weras CMC was the most accurate with Ivan 2004 I think if memory serves me right ?

[tolakram]

CMC is bad bad ignore it it’s worse than navy

IT IS NOT, there is verification to prove it. This is the second time you've been corrected.

I remember Mark weras CMC was the most accurate with Ivan 2004 I think if memory serves me right ?

2004? Most certainly not. It's been much better since a recent upgrade just a few years ago. It's now tied and sometimes beats the GFS within 5 days according to verification. Now, in my opinion, longer than 5 days both are mostly entertainment. When they are correct it's hard to say they are actually correct vs lucky.

[tolakram]

I can't post any GIFS to imgur at the moment, uploads fail. Hopefully it gets fixed soon.

[Javlin]

IT IS NOT, there is verification to prove it. This is the second time you've been corrected.

I remember Mark weras CMC was the most accurate with Ivan 2004 I think if memory serves me right ?

2004? Most certainly not. It's been much better since a recent upgrade just a few years ago. It's now tied and sometimes beats the GFS within 5 days according to verification. Now, in my opinion, longer than 5 days both are mostly entertainment. When they are correct it's hard to say they are actually correct vs lucky.

Not comparing then to now so much just that "the blind squirrel found a nut" I have always used the CMC once a storm gets a little more N for upper air patterns.

[3090]

https://i.imgur.com/ItUz0Bq.png

Yep this is what I was talking about BEYOND 5 days. We do not want to grasp this and run with it because it is still beyond 5 days! Now come beginning tomorrow 11am if the forecast track begins showing a bend that reflects these trends then it will be something to get concerned about.

[tolakram]

I had not looked at the latest CMC. It hits New Orleans, lol, it's been a while. Both the CMC and the GFS have a more northerly and weaker track, I'm not buying either of them.

Here's 120 hours from each of the globals.

[tolakram]

120h from the hurricane models

[3090]

I had not looked at the latest CMC. It hits New Orleans, lol, it's been a while. Both the CMC and the GFS have a more northerly and weaker track, I'm not buying either of them.

Here's 120 hours from each of the globals.

https://i.imgur.com/Ydc1N2o.png
https://i.imgur.com/9Ocgysq.png
https://i.imgur.com/6J80BXN.png
https://i.imgur.com/YSi0fcn.png
https://i.imgur.com/jkVZmuG.png

Too far out for any of that nonsense! Now tomorrow? That would be a different story if the forecast track begins bending in that general direction.

[tolakram]

I had not looked at the latest CMC. It hits New Orleans, lol, it's been a while. Both the CMC and the GFS have a more northerly and weaker track, I'm not buying either of them.

Here's 120 hours from each of the globals.

https://i.imgur.com/Ydc1N2o.png
https://i.imgur.com/9Ocgysq.png
https://i.imgur.com/6J80BXN.png
https://i.imgur.com/YSi0fcn.png
https://i.imgur.com/jkVZmuG.png

Too far out for any of that nonsense! Now tomorrow? That would be a different story.

That's 5 days. In 2024 I expect models to be able to make a reasonable forecast in 5 days. Except for the NAVGEM that uses secret navy intelligence to display exactly where the storm won't be.

[StormPyrate]

I had not looked at the latest CMC. It hits New Orleans, lol, it's been a while. Both the CMC and the GFS have a more northerly and weaker track, I'm not buying either of them.

Here's 120 hours from each of the globals.

https://i.imgur.com/Ydc1N2o.png
https://i.imgur.com/9Ocgysq.png
https://i.imgur.com/6J80BXN.png
https://i.imgur.com/YSi0fcn.png
https://i.imgur.com/jkVZmuG.png

Too far out for any of that nonsense! Now tomorrow? That would be a different story if the forecast track begins bending in that general direction.

Not really, comparing all of these at 120 hours shows some consistency, that has some value

[Tireman4]

I had not looked at the latest CMC. It hits New Orleans, lol, it's been a while. Both the CMC and the GFS have a more northerly and weaker track, I'm not buying either of them.

Here's 120 hours from each of the globals.

https://i.imgur.com/Ydc1N2o.png
https://i.imgur.com/9Ocgysq.png
https://i.imgur.com/6J80BXN.png
https://i.imgur.com/YSi0fcn.png
https://i.imgur.com/jkVZmuG.png

Too far out for any of that nonsense! Now tomorrow? That would be a different story.

That's 5 days. In 2024 I expect models to be able to make a reasonable forecast in 5 days. Except for the NAVGEM that uses secret navy intelligence to display exactly where the storm won't be.

Now what a minute. Now wait just a doggone minute, youngster. I trust the NAVY. How dare you disparage that model. ( insert serous sarcasm). The only other model I trust more is LBAR! LOL

[tolakram]

FYI the GIF upload issue only seems to be gif's made from tropical tidbits. I might have to screen2gif them if it doesn't get fixed.

[jlauderdal]

I had not looked at the latest CMC. It hits New Orleans, lol, it's been a while. Both the CMC and the GFS have a more northerly and weaker track, I'm not buying either of them.

Here's 120 hours from each of the globals.

https://i.imgur.com/Ydc1N2o.png
https://i.imgur.com/9Ocgysq.png
https://i.imgur.com/6J80BXN.png
https://i.imgur.com/YSi0fcn.png
https://i.imgur.com/jkVZmuG.png

Too far out for any of that nonsense! Now tomorrow? That would be a different story.

That's 5 days. In 2024 I expect models to be able to make a reasonable forecast in 5 days. Except for the NAVGEM that uses secret navy intelligence to display exactly where the storm won't be.

Yo, this is the place to discuss models in a family-friendly way; no rip job need, lol. God Bless the Navy NOGAPS.

[ColdMiser123]

The Euro has recently been too strong with mid-latitude ridges - it showed a 600+ dm ridge for the heat across the east a couple weeks ago, when something closer to 598 dm ended up verifying.

The GFS was also too weak with the ridge in the medium range.

So if something similar happens, a blend of the current Euro & GFS solutions could be reasonable, since the erosion of the ridge to the north will help drive steering in the Gulf.

[3090]

I had not looked at the latest CMC. It hits New Orleans, lol, it's been a while. Both the CMC and the GFS have a more northerly and weaker track, I'm not buying either of them.

Here's 120 hours from each of the globals.

https://i.imgur.com/Ydc1N2o.png
https://i.imgur.com/9Ocgysq.png
https://i.imgur.com/6J80BXN.png
https://i.imgur.com/YSi0fcn.png
https://i.imgur.com/jkVZmuG.png

Too far out for any of that nonsense! Now tomorrow? That would be a different story.

That's 5 days. In 2024 I expect models to be able to make a reasonable forecast in 5 days. Except for the NAVGEM that uses secret navy intelligence to display exactly where the storm won't be.

The New Orleans landfall is CERTAINLY NOT within the 5 day forecast! Which was your opening statement.

[Javlin]

Only casually look at it not sure of accuracy?NO LA

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 912&fh=192

[tolakram]

Only casually look at it not sure of accuracy?NO LA

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 912&fh=192

https://i.postimg.cc/Zn4pKNhH/jma-z850-vort-us-9.png

JMA has been interesting for overall trends, but not accuracy. Good to post so we can look back and see if this was even in the ballpark.

[Javlin]

Too far out for any of that nonsense! Now tomorrow? That would be a different story.

That's 5 days. In 2024 I expect models to be able to make a reasonable forecast in 5 days. Except for the NAVGEM that uses secret navy intelligence to display exactly where the storm won't be.

The New Orleans landfall is CERTAINLY NOT within the 5 day forecast! Which was your opening statement.

Disclaimer::roll: Both the CMC and the GFS have a more northerly and weaker track, I'm not buying either of them.