ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Teban54]

From St Elizabeth, parish in SW Jamaica that endured part of Beryl's eyewall:
 https://x.com/floydgreenja/status/1808696512471245249

[Tailgater33]

The satellite and radar show its regaining better structure attm. Could change quickly either way

[zhukm29]

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/haron_f/status/1808653407055389038

[Teban54]

[Stratton23]

Almost looks more like a NW movement toward the caymen islands, i wonder if its gaining a little more latitude quicker than anticipated , maybe starting to go more north and west of where guidance currently initiates it to be

[Blinhart]

Looks like the main core is staying compact and strong, just got to get the rest of the storm to stay with it.

[3090]

Almost looks more like a NW movement toward the caymen islands, i wonder if its gaining a little more latitude quicker than anticipated , maybe starting to go more north and west of where guidance currently initiates it to be

Well her forward speed slowed pretty significantly yesterday eveing so it is POSSIBLE. Maybe the ridge is starting to break down? We shall see.

[kevin]

Beryl does seem to have a more pronounced NW movement the last few hours. It's difficult to see exactly since it isn't always easy to see where the center is exactly at the moment. But it looks like it gained about 0.4 deg latitude during its last 1 deg of longitude. Extrapolating that would put it almost out of the cone at the Yucatan landfall, almost missing Yucatan altogether. But I wouldn't make any conclusions right now, let's see what the trend is over the rest of the day.

[Teban54]

Beryl does seem to have a more pronounced NW movement the last few hours. It's difficult to see exactly since it isn't always easy to see where the center is exactly at the moment. But it looks like it gained about 0.4 deg latitude during its last 1 deg of longitude. Extrapolating that would put it almost out of the cone at the Yucatan landfall, almost missing Yucatan altogether. But I wouldn't make any conclusions right now, let's see what the trend is over the rest of the day.

NHC's 11pm advisory has the first forecast point (for 8am) at 18.5N 81.9W. The 5am advisory has the current location at 18.5N, but only 81.0W. It appears that Beryl is indeed moving further north/east than forecast, though NHC's 5am forecast track is identical to 11pm's.

[Teban54]

[aspen]

It’s interesting how Beryl’s evolution has been the complete opposite of what you’d expect for July. Usually the East Caribbean is a shredder while the West Caribbean is where systems this early tend to find more luck. Beryl instead RI’d in the ECar and is getting shredded in the WCar.

[LSU Saint]

Most recent GFS looks like a ton of rain coming up to east Texas after landfall around the border

[ColdMiser123]

Extrap 964 mb.

Assuming the dropsonde pressure is reasonably close, it seems like the short-term intensity guidance will once again be too weak with Beryl over the next 6 hours.

The 0z HWRF for context had 978 mb in an hour and a half.

[Nimbus]

Almost looks more like a NW movement toward the caymen islands, i wonder if its gaining a little more latitude quicker than anticipated , maybe starting to go more north and west of where guidance currently initiates it to be

The trough split and there is an ULL rolling west into Mexico, the models were already showing this happening though. I think the HWRF had a pressure close to the current 965 MB recon finding for this morning but by 8 PM tonight most of the models have Beryl shredded down to the 980's. Will be an easy thing to verify.

[GCANE]

Miss Piggy's latest eyedrop tags Beryl significantly north of forecast track

[ColdMiser123]

You can see the 0z HWRF 12 hour forecast eroded the inner core too much compared to what the plane just found, which is why it was too weak with forecast intensity.

On the south side of the storm, recon just found hurricane-force flight level wind. The HWRF had winds barely at tropical storm strength on that side of the storm at 8 am EDT today.

[GCANE]

Miss Piggy's latest eyedrop tags Beryl significantly north of forecast track

At this point. Beryl should be at 18.4N.
Miss Piggy tags it at 18.6N

[jlauderdal]

Beryl does seem to have a more pronounced NW movement the last few hours. It's difficult to see exactly since it isn't always easy to see where the center is exactly at the moment. But it looks like it gained about 0.4 deg latitude during its last 1 deg of longitude. Extrapolating that would put it almost out of the cone at the Yucatan landfall, almost missing Yucatan altogether. But I wouldn't make any conclusions right now, let's see what the trend is over the rest of the day.

Be very careful XTRAPing anything, these systems wobble. The NHC has enough recon out there to know where the ridge is and how strong it is, is the track going to move North, maybe, but not enough to satisfy some people. NHC is too good on track inside of 5 days for any major changes, 75 miles on either side of the tx/mx border is a good bet. Cheap Tecate in Matamoros, park your car, walk across the bridge, walk back. Cheers from SOFLA where we are getting crushed with heat advisories. FLORIDIANS-the ridge isn't going to be this strong forever.

A RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 83 DEGREES WAS OBSERVED AT FORT
LAUDERDALE YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 82 DEGREES SET
IN 2022.

[GCANE]

That ULL at 24N 87W has a nice spin to it