ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[StPeteMike]

Organizing faster than expected, not good for the northern track.

[Category5Kaiju]

Can’t believe Iam back on here seeing another possible major hitting Florida. This has to be the worst season ever. If it stays south of Tampa it’s still going to destroy a populated place like Ft Myers, Sarasota, and possibly even Naples. North will be horrible for Tampa and Pinellas which is a double blow. This is just nuts.

People want to "play the odds," meaning they figure if it has just happened to us, then it won't happen again.

Many people won't leave for exactly that reason...they'll figure they've HAD their "turn," and there won't be another.

That is what makes this so nuts. Because "it's happening again!" IN THE SAME SEASON.

If there was anything we could learn from 2004 and 2020, sometimes Nature simply doesn’t care about one-two punches.

[ConvergenceZone]

Tropical Storm Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1225 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM MILTON...
...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING
IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NEXT WEEK...

Recent satellite wind data indicate that the depression has
strengthened into Tropical Storm Milton. The maximum sustained
winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.


SUMMARY OF 1225 PM CDT...1725 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 95.3W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

wow that's crazy considering they previously mentioned it becoming a tropical storm tonight or sunday.

[mantis83]

Tropical Storm Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1225 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM MILTON...
...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING
IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NEXT WEEK...

Recent satellite wind data indicate that the depression has
strengthened into Tropical Storm Milton. The maximum sustained
winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.


SUMMARY OF 1225 PM CDT...1725 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 95.3W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

wow that's crazy considering they previously mentioned it becoming a tropical storm tonight or sunday.

yup, making the more northern stronger solutions more likely imo...

[Pasmorade]

Just a day ago, most people in this board, for good reason, thought that this'd only be a weak, disorganized mess...

[underthwx]

Looks to be organizing to me:

https://i.postimg.cc/KzyBvLLd/goes16-vis-swir-14-L-202410051532.gif

Yeah, and FAST. Definitely NOT your typical baroclinic frontal low. The last 12 hours have been a blur and I cannot fathom that we suddenly have a TD on the verge of being named, with the prospect of a major hurricane to threaten South or Central Florida in just a few days I'll need a couple hours just to catch up on the umpteenth Discussion pages from this a.m. while at work. I'm sure the topic has already come up but, I'm guessing TS (or Hurricane) Watches will need be issued by tomorrow morning?

Im thinking hurricane watches will be up overnight tonight...or by the morning as you are saying....Milton just may be an overachiever....I hope that Milton will encounter shear...or something over the gulf to keep it from this intensifying like it has been this morning....

[ROCK]

Just a day ago, most people in this board, for good reason, thought that this'd only be a weak, disorganized mess...

Because that what the models showed. They basically changed in the last 48hrs. Just goes to the fact how fast things can change in the tropics.

[cycloneye]

There is one person who is a voice that many here follow his comments and it is wxman57. We need his imput on this situation.

[Beef Stew]

The word about this will get out quickly now that it’s a tropical storm. But right now, I don’t think many in FL are paying attention, based on what I’ve seen personally. Hurricane watches will likely be issued soon, and that will set off the frenzy. If you’re between Perry and Naples, and have the means to, finalize your preparations today if you haven’t already!

[Blown Away]

[CrazyC83]

Probably the best case scenario right now is a far southern solution, through the Everglades, although it still brings significant impacts to the Keys.

[ConvergenceZone]

Just a day ago, most people in this board, for good reason, thought that this'd only be a weak, disorganized mess...

yep I was one of those people, and I own up to it.

[869MB]

Link: https://youtube.com/watch?v=TtnKC7M7h00

[Michele B]

Can’t believe Iam back on here seeing another possible major hitting Florida. This has to be the worst season ever. If it stays south of Tampa it’s still going to destroy a populated place like Ft Myers, Sarasota, and possibly even Naples. North will be horrible for Tampa and Pinellas which is a double blow. This is just nuts.

People want to "play the odds," meaning they figure if it has just happened to us, then it won't happen again.

Many people won't leave for exactly that reason...they'll figure they've HAD their "turn," and there won't be another.

That is what makes this so nuts. Because "it's happening again!" IN THE SAME SEASON.

If there was anything we could learn from 2004 and 2020, sometimes Nature simply doesn’t care about one-two punches.

For sure! Ian nailed us, big time. We had moved and our current residence wasn't as safe as our Charley home was, so for us, 2004 was as nuts as it could get! FOUR storms just back to back to back.....I'd blanked that out of my mind, but you are right.

[underthwx]

Can any of you in the Tampa area share what your local emergency management officials are saying?....I understand that this event has been rapidly evolving this morning....but is there a notable sense of urgency there?....my youngest sister lives in Tampa....I tried calling her to talk some sense into her....but no luck....

[Fancy1002]

Before you ask if I’m crazy hear me out. It seems the stronger the storm is the more north it will go , so I hope the storm is as strong as can be because if we end up with a strong category three or weak to mid category four, Tampa is screwed and we might end up with a worse disaster than Katrina in cost and possibly even Jeanne in death toll. I know that’s an extreme view, but I just have a really bad feeling about this and I don’t see it coming in as a weak storm

I don’t want anyone getting hurt, but a Tampa landfall would be the worst case scenario and I don’t think we as a state or a country could handle that right now.

[StPeteMike]

Can any of you in the Tampa area share what your local emergency management officials are saying?....I understand that this event has been rapidly evolving this morning....but is there a notable sense of urgency there?....my youngest sister lives in Tampa....I tried calling her to talk some sense into her....but no luck....

They have posted being aware of the storm, but nothing more besides that. I live just outside downtown St. Petersburg. I hope the message is more urgency along the beaches. I still don’t think sandbag fill locations have been posted around here.

[tiger_deF]

Before you ask if I’m crazy hear me out. It seems the stronger the storm is the more north it will go , so I hope the storm is as strong as can be because if we end up with a strong category three or weak to mid category four, Tampa is screwed and we might end up with a worse disaster than Katrina in cost and possibly even Jeanne in death toll. I know that’s an extreme view, but I just have a really bad feeling about this and I don’t see it coming in as a weak storm

Barring something like a New England/Mid Atlantic landfall of a massive major cane, I doubt that we’ll see a CONUS impact bring a death toll anywhere near Katrina (which was ~3,500). Even Helene, which has wiped entire towns off the map and impact a dozen states, likely won’t have a final death toll anywhere near that. The Katrina disaster was a function of the levee failures following the storm (initially people thought New Orleans had avoided the worst after the storm weakened prior to landfall) combined with the relative poverty of impacted parishes and many failing to evacuate. Warning systems have improved dramatically especially with the rise of smartphones.

[NDG]

Probably the best case scenario right now is a far southern solution, through the Everglades, although it still brings significant impacts to the Keys.

Unfortunately only if it stays weak the ensembles show.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/CC_StormWatch/status/1842624576452501830