ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

Who is predicting cat 5? Ever? High cat 3 or low cat 4 is all that was ever reasonable.

IMO the bigger the storm is the lower the category will be and the higher the damage. This is why I think Saffir Simpson is useless for large storms, except to say that is this beast actually reaches cat 4 the damage will be extraordinary just from the surge alone.

Joe Bastardi is predicting Cat 5.

https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1839070525273870548

Who on this forum?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Question...I'm in Pinellas..storm shutters are up all ready to go.... but it looks like the storm is really pushing east shouldn't it even moving more than the north....?? or is there still high confidence in the track?

Confidence in the track is extremely high at this point. Smaller details like exactly where in the Panhandle will hit are up in the air, but we can say confidently it's not coming to Tampa. There will still be impacts due to wind and surge though.

It isn't hitting the panhandle, its hitting the big bend

I consider the Big Bend in the Panhandle, sorry not sorry

[lovingseason2013]

Confidence in the track is extremely high at this point. Smaller details like exactly where in the Panhandle will hit are up in the air, but we can say confidently it's not coming to Tampa. There will still be impacts due to wind and surge though.

It isn't hitting the panhandle, its hitting the big bend

I consider the Big Bend in the Panhandle, sorry not sorry

But it's not. Do you ever grab a pot where the handle is attached to the pot? No, you grab the handle And really, we quote Bastardi's opinions on here??? Come on, we can do better. This thing is so darn big, and still has some tricks up its sleeve I believe. Once they get this big and start to get strong, they somewhat control and bully the steering currents

[NDG]

NOAA's center looks NNE, of course the vortex can bounce around in a dynamic storm

That's why is good to calculate the heading in between the fixes over a number of hours vs just 1.5 hours.

Which by the way, entering the last NOAA fix compared to the one from the AF recon at 1:30 AM still gives me a 29 deg average heading.

Edit: On the last fix by the NOAA recon I used the extrap fix before the Dropsonde came out which splashed at 25.9N instead of 25.75 which I used from the fix. It gave me a 26 degree average heading during the past 6.5 hrs, but definitely is not 20 degree heading that the NHC had it on their last advisory.

[caneman]

Confidence in the track is extremely high at this point. Smaller details like exactly where in the Panhandle will hit are up in the air, but we can say confidently it's not coming to Tampa. There will still be impacts due to wind and surge though.

It isn't hitting the panhandle, its hitting the big bend

I consider the Big Bend in the Panhandle, sorry not sorry

Facts are facts

[GCANE]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 684
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
830 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0684.html

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Eastern Georgia
Central and Southern South Carolina
Coastal Waters

* Effective this Thursday morning and evening from 830 AM until
900 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
Several tornadoes likely

SUMMARY...A long-duration and gradually increasing tornado threat
will exist in association with the increasingly strong low-level
winds on the northeast periphery of Hurricane Helene.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
east and west of a line from 35 miles south of Savannah GA to 30
miles north of Columbia SC. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

[beachnut]

Actually, it was Mike Seidel who was videoed struggling with the winds while the two boys walking normally in the background with no troubles standing up


Well Dang!!!! in my mind it was Cantore! Still liking the new channel discovery for coverage.

I never watch TWC but I might check out FOX weather, I like to watch the local news of the affected areas, videos from webcams, and especially those crazy storm trackers. Trackers really get some incredible videos of the storms as they come inland. Hope they are extra cautious in the low-lying areas of the Big Bend, and probably need to stay out of that area.

Local news apps on your tv is the way to go...WINK-Fort Myers/Naples, ABC for the infamous Denis Phillips-Tampa...24x7, no commercials with local coverage

WINK is the best and the one we watch. NBC2 also good, and when we have storms the join with ABC7 for combined coverage. When storms come in this close the local mets are the way to go, always.

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/NWStornado/status/1839281651417014682

[ScottNAtlanta]

The eye certainly looks closed now and we will probably be seeing a stadium effect in a couple of hours. I'd expect to see another round of pressure falls soon.

[GCANE]

CAPE now up to 4000 in the core

[Steve]

It isn't hitting the panhandle, its hitting the big bend

I consider the Big Bend in the Panhandle, sorry not sorry

But it's not. Do you ever grab a pot where the handle is attached to the pot? No, you grab the handle And really, we quote Bastardi's opinions on here??? Come on, we can do better. This thing is so darn big, and still has some tricks up its sleeve I believe. Once they get this big and start to get strong, they somewhat control and bully the steering currents

If he only stuck to non-sensationalized weather he’d be great. I won’t insult him but feel like he’s a perfect example of a boomer whose children need to limit his online time.

[johngaltfla]

NOAA's center looks NNE, of course the vortex can bounce around in a dynamic storm

That's why is good to calculate the heading in between the fixes over a number of hours vs just 1.5 hours.

Which by the way, entering the last NOAA fix compared to the one from the AF recon at 1:30 AM still gives me a 29 deg average heading.

Edit: On the last fix by the NOAA recon I used the extrap fix before the Dropsonde came out which splashed at 25.9N instead of 25.75 which I used from the fix. It gave me a 26 degree average heading during the past 6.5 hrs, but definitely is not 20 degree heading that the NHC had it on their last advisory.

ICON a few days ago had landfall in the Cedar Key to Steinhatchee area and I'm thinking it might be proven right again. Your headings are further east of north and if that trend continues, odds are it will confirm.

[ronjon]

Helene is roughly at 26N-85W now. The NHC forecast track has it crossing 85W a full degree in latitude north at 27N.

[NDG]

Crazy that the Euro is forecasting hurricane force wind gusts in the Smokey Mountains. 90 mph wind gusts all over southern GA.
The power outages are going to be huge.

[xironman]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 684
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
830 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0684.html

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Eastern Georgia
Central and Southern South Carolina
Coastal Waters

* Effective this Thursday morning and evening from 830 AM until
900 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
Several tornadoes likely

SUMMARY...A long-duration and gradually increasing tornado threat
will exist in association with the increasingly strong low-level
winds on the northeast periphery of Hurricane Helene.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
east and west of a line from 35 miles south of Savannah GA to 30
miles north of Columbia SC. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

Convective outlook

Related to Helene's large size and increasingly fast forward speed,
an associated increase of low-level flow/shear will occur across the
Florida Peninsula today, southeast Georgia and parts of South
Carolina by afternoon, and eventually into parts of North Carolina
tonight. Low-level shear (and moisture/buoyancy) is already
supportive of a tornado risk in some areas regionally, reference 12z
observed soundings from Miami and especially Tampa Bay. However,
this tornado-supportive scenario will diurnally increase and expand
north-northeastward regionally through the afternoon and evening.
Low-level hodographs will become quite large, with 0-1 km SRH
increasing into at least the 250-500 m2/s2 range. This will support
tornado potential with any low-topped supercells that are able to
develop and persist within Helene's rain bands. Some tornado
potential will reach into parts of North Carolina later tonight.

[jlauderdal]

Helene is roughly at 26N-85W now. The NHC forecast track has it crossing 85W a full degree in latitude north at 27N.

These intense systems like the right side, not always but put your money on the right side vs the left.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I am starting to think Helene might go east of us in Atlanta...fingers crossed

[kevin]

Shear over Helene is quite high now atm, 24 kt. I was wondering how it could be intensifying at all with that shear. Then I realized it's moving 12 mph & 195 deg NNE while shear atm is 24kt at 209 deg. So Helene's movement is pretty much aligned with the shear vector and reduces the relative shear to 13 kt and dropping as we speak as she will continue to accelerate.

[GCANE]

CAPE rapidly increasing off the FL / GA shore.
Now up to 5000.
Will be a big effect for tornado development in that area

[sponger]

That's why is good to calculate the heading in between the fixes over a number of hours vs just 1.5 hours.

Which by the way, entering the last NOAA fix compared to the one from the AF recon at 1:30 AM still gives me a 29 deg average heading.

Edit: On the last fix by the NOAA recon I used the extrap fix before the Dropsonde came out which splashed at 25.9N instead of 25.75 which I used from the fix. It gave me a 26 degree average heading during the past 6.5 hrs, but definitely is not 20 degree heading that the NHC had it on their last advisory.

ICON a few days ago had landfall in the Cedar Key to Steinhatchee area and I'm thinking it might be proven right again. Your headings are further east of north and if that trend continues, odds are it will confirm.

Will have huge implications for Tallahassee wind and Tampa surge. Even another 2 feet into Tampa Bay will be far worse.