ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[InfernoFlameCat]

Not much doubt in my mind Beryl is regaining structure in all facets, it may take a while for the winds to reach Cat 3 again but I would not be surprised if they did. Side note Beryl seems to have it out for all the cruise line ports in the western Caribbean

I think its already at Cat 3. It wasnt far from it earlier. Maybe it will reach cat 4 again.

[Pipelines182]

Not much doubt in my mind Beryl is regaining structure in all facets, it may take a while for the winds to reach Cat 3 again but I would not be surprised if they did. Side note Beryl seems to have it out for all the cruise line ports in the western Caribbean

It’s probably already there, it only needed 5 more mph to regain cat 3 status

[Xyls]

Hurricane Beryl stays doing the most.

[MGC]

Western Caribbean working its magic on Beryl. Quite intense convection in the eyewall. Will be interesting to see what recon finds......MGC

[ConvergenceZone]

The board is slow today, but I'm assuming that's only because it's 4th of July and everyone is out doing activities. Here in Sacramento it's 110 degrees, so no 4th of July celebration here.

[AtlanticWind]

From today's 5am discussion, number 23:

24H 05/0600Z 19.5N 86.7W 80 KT 90 MPH

Beryl was expected to reach 19.5 north latitude at 86.7 west, and at 5am tomorrow. Beryl is at this latitude right now, at 84.3 west (~130 n mi further east) and 12 hours sooner. Beryl is also tracking at the northern edge of today's 12z EPS envelope.

https://i.imgur.com/6neYrRf.png

Just throwing it out there..

Yup, this is what I said earlier and have been saying it from the beginning. She's going to skirt that Northern tip of the Yucatan and track north regardless of what the models say or the current cone. Watch for a shift north in the official projected track. My guess is from Corpus all the way up to Galveston are all in play. I would swear this storm is looking at the models and is like "Here, hold my clouds for a sec".

It’s almost to the coast , I don’t believe it’s skirting the northern coast it is
coming onshore just south of Cozumel as forecast

[aspen]

You can really tell that Beryl’s outflow is restricted and that it’s still dealing with some shear. Despite hours of attempts, the eye has yet to clear, and the deepest convection has struggled to stay wrapped all the way around the center. Perhaps we’ll see Beryl maintain this look until landfall. The hurricane models have shown it being pretty steady from now until hitting the Yucatan.

[Blinhart]

She's not even close to the coast and she is expanding. I can definitely see her getting back up to a Cat 4 before landfall and she has a minuscule chance of missing Cozumel completely.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

The board is slow today, but I'm assuming that's only because it's 4th of July and everyone is out doing activities. Here in Sacramento it's 110 degrees, so no 4th of July celebration here.

Heyyyyy you live in the town of my favorite NBA team!!!
Sorry for the sidnote.

Does anyone know what the shear is looking like on approach to the Yucatán?

[Craters]

You can really tell that Beryl’s outflow is restricted and that it’s still dealing with some shear. Despite hours of attempts, the eye has yet to clear, and the deepest convection has struggled to stay wrapped all the way around the center. Perhaps we’ll see Beryl maintain this look until landfall. The hurricane models have shown it being pretty steady from now until hitting the Yucatan.

I agree with that, Aspen, for what it's worth. Along with the shear, there's still a lot of dry air at the surface and mid-levels to its west (and east, for that matter). Historically, that doesn't seem get mentioned much here, for some reason.

[wx98]

Plane has made it through the Yucatán Channel, so should get something in the next 30 minutes

[Stormcenter]

After Beryl became a hurricane did the NHC outlook anticipate it strengthening to cat. 5? I don’t recall them
stating so.

[Jonny]

After Beryl became a hurricane did the NHC outlook anticipate it strengthening to cat. 5? I don’t recall them
stating so.

I thought it was originally predicted to only reach C2 status.

[South Texas Storms]

It looks to have moved almost due west most of the afternoon, just like most models predicted. Still on track to move into the Yucatan Peninsula south of Cozumel.

[Portastorm]

After Beryl became a hurricane did the NHC outlook anticipate it strengthening to cat. 5? I don’t recall them
stating so.

You can review the previous discussions at: www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive

[mpic]

If Beryl does get back up to a high Cat 3 or 4, wouldn't that mean a stronger than predicted storm on the other side? What would that means in terms of track?

[jaguars_22]

Hwrf looks like it struggles to get strong in the gulf! I doubt this thing gets much higher than what it is now! All the way to Brownsville

[GCANE]

Learned something today.
Convection that developed over the Yucatan mid day disrupted the Fujiwhara effect between Beryl and the GOM ULL.
So, looks like a big PVS area in association with the ULL has developed in the BoC.
We'll see if this persists when Beryl gets in the GoM, If so, Beryl will have a hard time.

[Woofde]

Extrap 961.9mb, it did indeed strengthen.

[bohai]

We live in the Hill Country of Texas and are still in an Extreme Draught. One of our lakes is at 2% of its normal level. So even it goes ashore in NE Mexico and is trending WNW-NW-N, the possibility of us getting some beneficial rains has increased for next week. As long as it produces that rain, I don't really care where it comes ashore. Even it came ashore just south of the border, the onshore winds should drive plenty of moisture inland.