ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nimbus]

Agreed that was definitely a big wobble. I know it’s gotta be scaring folks in Tampa and North. The wobbles in this particular storm feel like higher stakes than most.

Do you have a link to that satellite you posted with the track on it ?

Shoot. Let me see if I can find it again for you!

Windfield for Tampa bay area hasn't been checked yet but looks like 60+ in open areas.

[Travorum]

Air force has the eyewall closed again

[MarioProtVI]

Should reach major intensity by this evening at the current rate.

[Poonwalker]

I can tell that Dave Osterberg on Fox13 here in Tampa is overly nervous about the east jog of the hurricane.

Models always underestimate the strength of the trough on those NE-moving storms. Time and time again. It is going to be a close call for Cedar Key/Tampa. I hope those who were told to evacuate did so.

Everyone I know did evacuate from the zone A. We had our phones going off last night and early this morning. That’s the first time I have had that happen with the phone emergency system.

[GCANE]

That feeder band, coming from W Carib across W Cuba, is intense.
Tons of lightning in it.
Likely will hold up and rotate into W FL late this afternoon.
Could see tornadoes out of this along the west coast into Mid FL.

[hipshot]

Full on shrimp mode!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=vis

From that angle, Tampa may get more surge than they think but I'm no expert.

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

I can tell that Dave Osterberg on Fox13 here in Tampa is overly nervous about the east jog of the hurricane.

Models always underestimate the strength of the trough on those NE-moving storms. Time and time again. It is going to be a close call for Cedar Key/Tampa. I hope those who were told to evacuate did so.

Everyone I know did evacuate from the zone A. We had our phones going off last night and early this morning. That’s the first time I have had that happen with the phone emergency system.

just got it here in Pasco

Everyone watching these wobbles lol

Im not worried, they cones are usually accurate. If it pulls an Ian or Charley on Tampa at the last minute and cuts east of the cone it is what it is. Statistically its incredibly unlikely

[InfernoFlameCat]

Air force has the eyewall closed again

https://i.imgur.com/cQv4QFl.png

I have noticed that the Eye seems to be contracting, which will help it to intensify in the future.

[psyclone]

NHC not incorporating Storm2K posters' wobble watching into their 11AM forecast with Tallahassee still in the bullseye (68% hurricane wind probability). Tampa now up to 95% TS wind probability and up a tick slightly to 16% high-end TS winds and 3% hurricane. They don't seem too nervous about any eastern jogs or wobbles.

All of those prior westward adjustments have bought us some wiggle room. We've got change to spare. I am worried about water rise...winds not so much. I'm gonna take a bike ride and get some headwind cardio

[ScottNAtlanta]

This might not be that important, but the temperature differential inside and outside the eye is only about 3C. I would expect it to be much higher

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Hurricanes don't travel in straight lines. Trends are measured over six hour periods. I think the Tampa/Cedar Key concerns are unfounded outside of what has been officially forecast.

[StPeteMike]

Notice NHC increased their storm surge projection for the Tampa Bay Area. It had went down yesterday, even though I saw others keeping it at 5-8 ft. Wonder if it’s due to the slight nudge east or just realizing her large size and wind span to the east will cause a larger surge.

[GCANE]

More radar-indicated tornado warnings are popping up now.
I'll post only those that are observed.

[MetroMike]

Hurricanes don't travel in straight lines. Trends are measured over six hour periods. I think the Tampa/Cedar Key concerns are unfounded outside of what has been officially forecast.

The models have been straight on last few days. I think it is surprising to see a deviation of that track today. Was not expecting any wobble like this.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Huge convective blowup with gravity waves emitting on the NE eyewall. Likely a sign of further intensification to a MH.

[NDG]

Both 06z GFS and 06z Euro are still persistent that Tampa Bay will see wind gusts in the 80-90 mph range. Euro showing Pinellas Beaches with 90+ mph wind gusts.

[StPeteMike]

Should reach major intensity by this evening at the current rate.

If the eye wall is closed off, I could see major by 2 pm.

[FLLurker32]

NHC not incorporating Storm2K posters' wobble watching into their 11AM forecast with Tallahassee still in the bullseye (68% hurricane wind probability). Tampa now up to 95% TS wind probability and up a tick slightly to 16% high-end TS winds and 3% hurricane. They don't seem too nervous about any eastern jogs or wobbles.

Major Mets have been talking about it too, not just this board. On the contrary, I think they’re considering social responsibility here. Keeping Tallahassee and ATL in the big impact zone keeps more people safe. Taylor county is still on the far eastern side of the cone for the eye, so if it continues more to the East they’ve still provided that as a possibility.

They’re being responsible by trying to cover both scenarios but weighing more heavily in the direction of more populated areas.

[GCANE]

Serious cirrus stacking underway.
IMHO eye should clear out within 4 hrs

[ColdMiser123]

Because of the rotating hot tower, there is a mass imbalance within the storm itself currently. Practically, all this means are that you may see more wobbles along the long-term storm track than normal.

The hot tower is now moving through the western semicircle, which means you may see a more northerly wobble over the next couple passes.