ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

I left for 1 hour and now pressure is sub-900 with a 4nm wide eye???
That's insane

[SconnieCane]

Shear is going to significantly increase in the last 12-24 hours before Florida. Combine that with an interaction with a trough, and it should weaken rapidly before landfall.

But how rapid is rapid when this thing could be top 5 on record by the time it gets to that point is what I'm worried about, especially with the southern dip :\

It's really hard to say. Shear is one of those things that is really hard to forecast. Shear that exists right now won't be there tomorrow in many cases.

It can also sneak up when not expected; such as what clipped Delta's bomber wings in 2020. Obviously that didn't happen this time, but it just as easily could have.

[Lightning48]

Our local Met just mentioned in the Tampa Bay Area that expects winds to max out in the mid 60’s due to weakening. What’s your thoughts?

[Flwxguy86]

Unbelievable. Wow. This is some incredible stuff no one was predicting, and it could still strengthen

Do we even see this dropping below Cat 5 at this point? The eye won't pass over the Yucatan, and are conditions near FL that bad for development/stability?

Shear is going to significantly increase in the last 12-24 hours before Florida. Combine that with an interaction with a trough, and it should weaken rapidly before landfall.

THIS! I am in no way downplaying it but it will weaken a decent amount before landfall, that won't stop the storm surge but it WILL NOT hit as a cat 5! Likely a 3 maybe a low end 4.

[Exalt]

About a half-hour ago CNN's The Lead with Jake Tapper starts with Jake emphatically stating, A Category 5 hurricane is headed for Florida's west coast. If I didn't know Milton was forecast to weaken to a Cat 3 by the time its eye reaches Florida I would think it was going to hit at Cat 5 intensity! The news media really needs to stop with the sensationalist headlines.

If it gets people's attention, I'm ok with it.

It's better than if they ignore that fact, thinking, "Oh, it's weakening."

We also literally have no clue about what shear, if any, will actually be there in two and a half days. This thing could be an absolute monster and continue strengthening after an EWRC and, even with the forecasted shear, could still very well be a high-end Cat 4 on landfall, if not higher, and with expanded winds.

[CronkPSU]

Our local Met just mentioned in the Tampa Bay Area that expects winds to max out in the mid 60’s due to weakening. What’s your thoughts?

I mean NHC has it 125 mph at landfall…unless it misses Tampa by a lot, seems very unlikely it would max out to tropical storms winds in Tampa

[dafif]

Florida traffic update:

My friend just called. They left Sarasota 7 hours ago on I 75 to go to Gainesville. According to Google maps, they have 2 hours to go.

Also, am I close in my calculations: If landfall around Tampa is 2 am, eye passing Orlando area around 7am - 8 am with major winds leaving area around noon?

[sponger]

A fair point about this happening now as opposed to landfall. The downside is many people may not react the next time, when the feel they evac'd prematurely, especially out of wind fears, not surge. There is always a later consequence. My question is, can the US ever get a Acapulco sneaker? Let's hope not.

[ScottNAtlanta]

How does recon even hit the center of a 4nm eye? They have to be going at least 200mph (I'm guessing I have no idea...but I'm sure it is in the ballpark). They had 22kts at the drop so it could be lower than 899

[Exalt]

Do we even see this dropping below Cat 5 at this point? The eye won't pass over the Yucatan, and are conditions near FL that bad for development/stability?

Shear is going to significantly increase in the last 12-24 hours before Florida. Combine that with an interaction with a trough, and it should weaken rapidly before landfall.

THIS! I am in no way downplaying it but it will weaken a decent amount before landfall, that won't stop the storm surge but it WILL NOT hit as a cat 5! Likely a 3 maybe a low end 4.

The issue is forecasts have been off, I think it's better to treat it as a potential Cat 4 or Cat 5 landfall than sit in the Cat 3 camp, we truly don't know about conditions even two days out, anything could happen.

[Stormgodess]

Just seen a photo from a friend. Paddock mall parking lot in Ocala is filled with power trucks sitting.

Glad to hear they are staging. The power trucks will be from across the country.

You'll see caravans of them heading in on the freeways.

They stage in a safety zone along with all the first responders who evacuated once a mandatory evacuation order was issued.

As a review a citizen is not required to evacuate when mandatory evacuations are ordered.

It means all emergency personnel including the police are no longer there to help and you truly are on your own.

Was always a sad feeling when they all left just before the storm. Many wanted to stay but the protocols are there for a reason.

Along with the power workers cutting their way in all the first-responders were there eager to get into the war zone and do their heroic work.

Chuck

This is true, of course, but people tend to forget that!

In fact, the first thing they do once there is a problem (water flooding in, roof flies away or tree comes down) is call 911 and ask for help! It's almost as if they simply do not believe first responders will not come!

Amazing. They will endanger someone else's life just because they don't believe what they were told about how bad it might get, and then want to be "bailed out" once it does exactly what they were told it would do!

I also wonder at this point, after Francine and Helene, what the supply stockpile for poles, cable, and transformers is like? I read something once, that replacing transformers would be what would set back recovery from an EMP or large solar flare. That there isn't enough stockpiled.

Does anyone have a lead on where such info can gathered? Especially with all the geopolitical issues the past few years that has limited supplies of other electronic components. I'm curious on how supplies for our grid systems are standing

[Kingarabian]

I think the CDG is sufficient enough for T8.0 if the eye can warm a little on BD/IRA.

[CoastalDesign]

Our local Met just mentioned in the Tampa Bay Area that expects winds to max out in the mid 60’s due to weakening. What’s your thoughts?

You have to post a link to that. How can he say that with any certainty? That would be completely irresponsible.

[gailwarning]

Ive wanted to witness this since I started tracking after Tomas 2010... following a first SUB 900MB Atlantic Hurricane from start to finish!!! First time in nearly 2 decades this feat has taken to be repeated ... all tropics watchers around the world just witnessed a piece of weather history! Milton has joined a select and prestigious club! (Allen, Gilbert, Wilma, Rita)

Personally, I might be happier about it if Milton was about to turn a lot of lives upside down.

[Pipelines182]

I once heard someone say there is no Category 6 Hurricanes, because there is no damage to analyze at that point, because there simply isn't anything left.

Is that true?

More or less. Once you get past a certain point, catastrophic damage is more or less total. There’s not much that survives 160 mph winds just to fail at 180.

This isn’t true, damage scales exponentially with windspeed, the 20 mph increase in wind speed is far more significant at cat5 strength than it is at cat 1

[gailwarning]

Ive wanted to witness this since I started tracking after Tomas 2010... following a first SUB 900MB Atlantic Hurricane from start to finish!!! First time in nearly 2 decades this feat has taken to be repeated ... all tropics watchers around the world just witnessed a piece of weather history! Milton has joined a select and prestigious club! (Allen, Gilbert, Wilma, Rita)

Personally, I might be happier about it if Milton wasn't about to turn a lot of lives upside down.

[syfr]

NOAA at 8000 ft entering east part of the circulation , USAF at 10K at northern part of the eye

[underthwx]

This is a portion of NWS Miami 2:56 pm forecast discussion....which is very important to understand....just in case any of yall have not read......."Regardless of where exactly Hurricane Milton makes landfall, the
southwest coast of Florida, particularly Coastal Collier and
Mainland Monroe Counties, should prepare for significant,
potentially life-threatening storm surge. The systems strength
and orientation will likely cause devastating storm surge along
nearly the entire west coast of Florida. It is critical for
residents in these areas to closely monitor updates and follow any
evacuation orders issued by local authorities. Even with
uncertainty surrounding the precise landfall location, storm surge
remains the primary threat for Gulf coast communities in
southwest Florida, demanding immediate attention and preparation"...

[Michele B]

Instead of being productive the last 4 hours I've refreshed this forum like an addict waiting for this airplane to arrive. Anyone else feel the same way?

No.

I've spent the past 2 hours trying to read each post on each page and KEEP UP! The pages are adding up faster than I can read them all!

[KWT]

Shear is going to significantly increase in the last 12-24 hours before Florida. Combine that with an interaction with a trough, and it should weaken rapidly before landfall.

THIS! I am in no way downplaying it but it will weaken a decent amount before landfall, that won't stop the storm surge but it WILL NOT hit as a cat 5! Likely a 3 maybe a low end 4.

The issue is forecasts have been off, I think it's better to treat it as a potential Cat 4 or Cat 5 landfall than sit in the Cat 3 camp, we truly don't know about conditions even two days out, anything could happen.

To be fair they always say prepare for the next category up to be safe. I'd be preparing on the coast for a top end 4 personally. Better safe than sorry. Only takes an unexpected alignment for it to pull a Michael, the margins are going to be fairly fine for a time between aiding and destroying.