ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[weeniepatrol]

Most of the higher end models have 02L developing an inner core tonight; I believe that would be highly dependent on the shear abating just enough to allow for that.

Absolutely, and the timing matters so much. I would imagine 02L wants a robust and well-developed vortex if it wants to survive passage through the early July Caribbean Sea.

[hipshot]

Levi posted an update

https://youtu.be/FHjE4YC8H7Y?si=vk_O8QcAOJMQp8pz

Watching it now. I met Levi at the AMS tropical conference in Tucson, AZ back in 2010. He was in college then. Smart meteorologist.

Do you know where he is now?

I believe he took a job in Hawaii after he got his Phd.

[cycloneye]

A. 02L (NONAME)

B. 29/0000Z

C. 9.2N

D. 42.6W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.0/2.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...4/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. 2112Z SSMIS PASS SHOWS
MOST DEEP CONVECTION IN SW QUAD. SOME ENE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE IMPACTING
SYSTEM. UPR-LVL OUTFLOW GOOD N AND W QUADS AND MINIMAL ELSEWHERE. FT
BASED ON PT DUE TO BANDING NOT CLR-CUT AND PULSING INNER CORE CONVECTION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KONON

[GCANE]

Watching it now. I met Levi at the AMS tropical conference in Tucson, AZ back in 2010. He was in college then. Smart meteorologist.

Do you know where he is now?

I believe he took a job in Hawaii after he got his Phd.

Sweet

[Cebas1029]

AL, 02, 2024062900, , BEST, 0, 92N, 427W, 35, 1006, TS,

AL, 02, 2024062900, 01, CARQ, 0, 92N, 427W, 35, 1006, TS, 64, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, X, 275, 16, BERYL, M

[wxman57]

Consensus models shifted about 90 miles (or more) south in the vicinity of Jamaica and now show a west track into the central Yucatan. I think the south shift will continue, passing 50-75 miles south of Jamaica.

[cycloneye]

Even if best track has it as TS Beryl, we prefer to wait for the oficial word from NHC at the 11 PM advisory and not change the title of the threads, to be careful as anything can happen in an unexpected way.

[wxman57]

Even if best track has it as TS Beryl, we prefer to wait for the oficial word from NHC at the 11 PM advisory and not change the title of the threads, to be careful as anything can happen in an unexpected way.

That's always prudent, as I've seen them NOT upgrade a system after indicating an upgrade on BT

[Astromanía]

This thing really wants to be an Emily, isn't it?

[aspen]

Most of the higher end models have 02L developing an inner core tonight; I believe that would be highly dependent on the shear abating just enough to allow for that.

Probably not happening tonight. My best guess is that a core will gradually develop tomorrow, maybe into Sunday. It’s hard to tell right now but I think the storm is still pretty tilted.

[Hurricane2022]

Looks like that the center is exposed

[Hurricaneman]

Could have multiple centers in this stage of development so still organizing in spite of 20kts of mid level shear also the center could relocate in the convection at this stage too

[Hurricaneman]

Just looked at the satellite in motion, the center the earlier post circled is rotating around the convection which is indicative of a broad center with multiple vortices, usually in this case one will take over and usually under the convection

[South Texas Storms]

Watching it now. I met Levi at the AMS tropical conference in Tucson, AZ back in 2010. He was in college then. Smart meteorologist.

Do you know where he is now?

I believe he took a job in Hawaii after he got his Phd.

Yeah he's at JTWC now.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Shortly-to-be-Beryl is taking on a curved shrimp look. It's possible the LLC is now under the convection.

[Category5Kaiju]

Umm...hey guys, I think we *might* have a little problem here.

[Sciencerocks]

[KirbyDude25]

https://i.imgur.com/wkbzwfu.png

Umm...hey guys, I think we *might* have a little problem here.

Guess it finally found that low-shear pocket. How is that area of high shear to Beryl's northwest expected to shift over time?

[Cpv17]

https://i.imgur.com/wkbzwfu.png

Umm...hey guys, I think we *might* have a little problem here.

Guess it finally found that low-shear pocket. How is that area of high shear to Beryl's northwest expected to shift over time?

That’s what I’m wondering too…

[REDHurricane]

https://i.imgur.com/wkbzwfu.png

Umm...hey guys, I think we *might* have a little problem here.

Guess it finally found that low-shear pocket. How is that area of high shear to Beryl's northwest expected to shift over time?

According to the Tropical Tidbits video from earlier today, the shear is expected to keep lifting to the north and Beryl will position itself right under the low-shear upper level ridge until it enters the Caribbean and likely runs into high westerly shear from a TUTT setup