ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Bocadude85]

Man, why can't she Wobble the other way? I hate wobble watching... but she's wobbling right last 3-4 frames!

Saved Loop
https://i.imgur.com/7RCabhT.gif

The east wobbles are good, the more the better, that puts the core of strongest winds over almost no populated areas. If it goes west, Tallahassee gets the strong part of the core. The difference between getting the eastern eyewall vs the western eyewall is very very significant.

They may be good for Tallahassee, but the closer it gets to the west central coast increases the storm surge.

[Travorum]

956.6mb extrap from recon, 115kts FL/91kts SFMR in the western eastern eyewall. Deepening at a rate of 2mb/hr right now.

[CrazyC83]

That data probably supports 100 kt for the intensity, given the sparseness of SFMR data.

[PavelGaborik10]

Opposite of earlier as now the western side of the system looks much better

[ConvergenceZone]

We've been hearing the same song and dance for 2 days regarding Helene undergoing RI.

As far as nobody thinking this had a chance at cat 5? Several days over the Carib, GOM going throhgh an untouched loop current in a low shear environment in an incredibly favorable upper level environment, intensity models and NHC issuing one of, if not their most aggresive RI forecast in their history showcases just how absurd the potential ceiling for Helene was.

Fortunately the ol' girl struggeled tremendously at successfully building an inner core, had two eyewalls competing with each other which helped with dry air intrusion. Close interaction with the Yuc likely didn't help.

But could you imagine if this storm figured out it's structural issues 24 hours ago? Unquestionable this would be making a run at category 5 given the current environment, we've seen many storms do significantly more with significantly less than what we've seen with Helene thus far.

That said, I still expect a high end 3 at landfall with the possibility of a low end 4 as well, which speaks volumes to just how favorable her current environment truly is right now with just about 10 hours before landfall tonight.

And with the size of this storm a cat 4(if it gets there) might be just as bad as a cat 5. I agree with one of the mods was saying, nobody here predicated a cat 5. Not even the NHC predicted it. Everything has to come together perfectly for that to happen. If that wasn't the case, Cat 5s would be much more common. With some of the posts I'm seeing some sound disappointed that this won't be a cat 5, which is a bit disturbing to me.

I mean that's just objectively false, we had multiple posts from multiple posters talking about a potential category 5, hell we had some posts talking about it just last night.

As far as the NHC forecst? No, they predicted a category 4 in their most aggressive forecast in history while admitting it was a difficult intensity forecast. That doesn't mean much, what were the first few intensity forecasts for Beryl? One could argue Helene is in a better environment right now than Beryl ever was, the only thing that was stopping Helene from blowing up was it's own struggles building a solid core which was allowing it to ingest small amounts of dry air repeatedly.

What I mean is that there were no reputable forecasters such as mets here forecasting a cat 5. Don't sound so disappointed. it's a good thing mate. And as others have mentioned, a cat 4 might as well be a cat 5 due to its size

[NDG]

Cat 3!

75830 2637N 08459W 6963 02798 9566 +169 +110 162009 012 024 001 00
175900 2637N 08459W 6963 02798 9570 +164 +120 181015 017 030 000 00
175930 2637N 08459W 6963 02798 9570 +161 +126 181019 022 031 001 00
180000 2637N 08453W 6967 02792 9571 +159 +134 175026 029 034 002 00
180030 2637N 08451W 6966 02793 9576 +156 +132 174032 036 037 001 00
180100 2637N 08449W 6966 02794 9582 +154 +123 173040 042 037 000 00
180130 2637N 08447W 6968 02794 9584 +151 +131 169044 045 044 001 00
180200 2637N 08446W 6961 02804 9584 +153 +131 168047 048 054 002 00
180230 2637N 08444W 6969 02798 9582 +156 +129 170052 054 064 003 00
180300 2637N 08442W 6966 02805 9585 +161 +122 173056 059 080 004 00
180330 2637N 08440W 6959 02819 9592 +158 +131 170064 065 083 002 00
180400 2637N 08438W 6975 02806 9615 +142 //// 174071 073 087 007 01
180430 2637N 08436W 6960 02826 9617 +135 //// 180076 079 086 009 01
180500 2637N 08434W 6957 02836 //// +115 //// 188092 101 090 026 01
180530 2637N 08432W 6969 02836 //// +099 //// 180111 115 091 041 01
180600 2637N 08431W 6984 02823 //// +087 //// 169107 111 090 044 01
$$

[ElectricStorm]

By far the highest FL and SFMR so far. Easily supports the current 95kts and could be closer to 100kts

[Travorum]

Opposite of earlier as now the western side of the system looks much better

That was an error on my part, meant to say eastern side.

[longhorn2004]

Per Ryan on YT, they just stated the eye is having vertical stacking issues. Info ascertained from the latest flight info that just came in.

[SecondBreakfast]

I’m in at 946 at the 5PM

[Category5Kaiju]

Looks like we have evidence that Helene’s a 3 now

[chaser1]

Anyone care to take a shot at min pressure for the 5:00PM update/discussion? I'll go with 951 mb

I'll guess 953mb.

My 951 mb is slowly getting boxed in

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I still do think a Cat 4 is possible from Helene. Looking at recon Helene is basically a major hurricane already. It's not unrealistic for it to gain another 15mph before landfall in ~10 hours.

[psyclone]

Glad the Pinellas County officials are on TV telling the public not to compare Ian to Helene, that the storm surge could be 10 feet higher than with Ian.

Water is rising in tampa bay despite an outgoing tide and offshore winds. Streets are flooding in Oldsmar...many homes are not far from getting water in them. It's going to surprise people later on when that wind veers south and southwest

[ColdMiser123]

Most likely a Category 3 now. 115 kt flight level wind supports 103-104 kt at the surface. Peak SFMR was 91 kt as well. A simple blend supports 97 kt, which is Category 3.

[HurricaneBelle]

Glad that it's been largely dry in Pinellas since early this morning, will keep down the rain totals which should be a far cry from the fresh-water flooding seen with Debby about 7 weeks ago.

[PavelGaborik10]

And with the size of this storm a cat 4(if it gets there) might be just as bad as a cat 5. I agree with one of the mods was saying, nobody here predicated a cat 5. Not even the NHC predicted it. Everything has to come together perfectly for that to happen. If that wasn't the case, Cat 5s would be much more common. With some of the posts I'm seeing some sound disappointed that this won't be a cat 5, which is a bit disturbing to me.

I mean that's just objectively false, we had multiple posts from multiple posters talking about a potential category 5, hell we had some posts talking about it just last night.

As far as the NHC forecst? No, they predicted a category 4 in their most aggressive forecast in history while admitting it was a difficult intensity forecast. That doesn't mean much, what were the first few intensity forecasts for Beryl? One could argue Helene is in a better environment right now than Beryl ever was, the only thing that was stopping Helene from blowing up was it's own struggles building a solid core which was allowing it to ingest small amounts of dry air repeatedly.

What I mean is that there were no reputable forecasters such as mets here forecasting a cat 5. Don't sound so disappointed. it's a good thing mate. And as others have mentioned, a cat 4 might as well be a cat 5 due to its size

There were multiple professionals on social media talking about the potential for this to reach category 5, I mean good lord Recon is finding category 3 winds right now and that's on top of all of the structural issues.

It's simply not logical to think that this wouldn't be a category higher right now with an extra 24 hours over bathwater and an eddie to intensify.

It's not being mad, it's simply being objective and realistic.

With what recon just found, I still wouldn't even write off a mid range 4.

[kevin]

956.6 mb with 5 kt winds nearby and 115 kt FL winds. Looks like we have a MH, supports 956 mb / 100 - 105 kt.

[LandoWill]

NHC keeps moving the goalposts, " it's not going east" then they update the track to the new east position and still keep the final destination. Which is all good i guess?

Let's see if for the 3rd time today already when they moved the current track location that it actually stays over the line and not to the west or east of it again.

[Travorum]

Most likely a Category 3 now. 115 kt flight level wind supports 103-104 kt at the surface. Peak SFMR was 91 kt as well. A simple blend supports 97 kt, which is Category 3.

This kind of data always has a way of coming mere minutes after NHC advisories. I wonder what the best track will go with.