ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jdjaguar]

Anyone care to take a shot at min pressure for the 5:00PM update/discussion? I'll go with 951 mb

I'll guess 953mb.

My 951 mb is slowly getting boxed in

950

[ConvergenceZone]

I mean that's just objectively false, we had multiple posts from multiple posters talking about a potential category 5, hell we had some posts talking about it just last night.

As far as the NHC forecst? No, they predicted a category 4 in their most aggressive forecast in history while admitting it was a difficult intensity forecast. That doesn't mean much, what were the first few intensity forecasts for Beryl? One could argue Helene is in a better environment right now than Beryl ever was, the only thing that was stopping Helene from blowing up was it's own struggles building a solid core which was allowing it to ingest small amounts of dry air repeatedly.

What I mean is that there were no reputable forecasters such as mets here forecasting a cat 5. Don't sound so disappointed. it's a good thing mate. And as others have mentioned, a cat 4 might as well be a cat 5 due to its size

There were multiple professionals on social media talking about the potential for this to reach category 5, I mean good lord Recon is finding category 3 winds right now and that's on top of all of the structural issues.

It's simply not logical to think that this wouldn't be a category higher right now with an extra 24 hours over bathwater and an eddie to intensify.

It's not being mad, it's simply being objective and realistic.

With what recon just found, I still wouldn't even write off a mid range 4.

enough! stop already please. We get it!

[Soluna16]

NHC keeps moving the goalposts, " it's not going east" then they update the track to the new east position and still keep the final destination. Which is all good i guess?

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_flanim.gif Let's see if for the 3rd time today already when they moved the current track location that it actually stays over the line and not to the west or east of it again.

NHC keeps moving the short term track but not the landfall, bizarre

[USTropics]

We're starting to see some of the cloud tops involved with the eyewall reaching ~90C. This indicates to me we're getting some vertical development, which will further help the inner core consolidate:

[Michele B]

Beyond shocked and pleased regarding the current intensity.

I truly thought this would make a run for category 5, another 2024 special.

NOTHING about 2024 season is as it should be!!

[ronjon]

First squall line from the CDO coming ashore Sarasota and Pinellas. As these gradually slide eastward, look for winds to really come up along the shoreline.

[Travorum]

A big area of 100+kt FL winds on the east side of Helene, about 10 miles wide here. Wind speed is finally catching up to dropping pressures.

180630 2637N 08429W 6965 02864 //// +086 //// 174104 107 089 043 01
180700 2637N 08428W 6962 02878 //// +082 //// 178108 109 085 041 01
180730 2637N 08426W 6970 02883 //// +091 //// 181107 109 084 015 01
180800 2637N 08424W 6966 02899 //// +101 //// 180103 105 084 014 01
180830 2637N 08422W 6965 02911 9754 +106 //// 180098 100 083 010 01
180900 2637N 08421W 6969 02915 //// +102 //// 183100 106 077 014 01
180930 2637N 08419W 6974 02918 //// +097 //// 184105 109 078 015 01
181000 2637N 08417W 6964 02935 //// +094 //// 183105 108 074 022 01
181030 2637N 08415W 6972 02930 //// +092 //// 183104 107 073 030 01
181100 2637N 08413W 6967 02946 //// +089 //// 184100 103 072 014 01
181130 2637N 08412W 6969 02949 //// +090 //// 185099 101 073 013 01

[chaser1]

Most likely a Category 3 now. 115 kt flight level wind supports 103-104 kt at the surface. Peak SFMR was 91 kt as well. A simple blend supports 97 kt, which is Category 3.

This kind of data always has a way of coming mere minutes after NHC advisories. I wonder what the best track will go with.

I was thinking the exact same thing after reading only 959 from the 2:00pm advise

[CrazyC83]

This reminds me some of Ida that took its time for the winds to catch up. Now, will the bottom fall out?

[Laser30033003]

....954 @ 5pm

[PavelGaborik10]

What I mean is that there were no reputable forecasters such as mets here forecasting a cat 5. Don't sound so disappointed. it's a good thing mate. And as others have mentioned, a cat 4 might as well be a cat 5 due to its size

There were multiple professionals on social media talking about the potential for this to reach category 5, I mean good lord Recon is finding category 3 winds right now and that's on top of all of the structural issues.

It's simply not logical to think that this wouldn't be a category higher right now with an extra 24 hours over bathwater and an eddie to intensify.

It's not being mad, it's simply being objective and realistic.

With what recon just found, I still wouldn't even write off a mid range 4.

enough! stop already please. We get it!

I mean you could literally just stop replying rather than responding and continuing the debate that YOU initiated in the first place.

It isn't that serious, or complex for that matter my man lol

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
225 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND HELENE A MAJOR HURRICANE...

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters found that the maximum sustained
winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h). This makes
Helene a dangerous category 3 major hurricane. Additional
strengthening is expected before Helene makes landfall in the
Florida Big Bend this evening.

SUMMARY OF 225 PM EDT...1825 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 84.9W
ABOUT 170 MI...280 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Berg/Brown

[Pipelines182]

Seems like Helene is going to be another one of those "good thing it didn't have another day" storms. It's pretty interesting how frequently this happens, happened with Beryl too.

[NDG]

Highest winds so far:

Sarasota/Bradenton Airport 54 mph
Downtown St Pete 49 mph

And the winds are still going offshore!!!

[FLpanhandle91]

Abundant mesovortices and lightning in the eyewall, CDO cooling dramatically, -90s in the eastern eyewall. She is in the process of RI right now.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Seems like Helene is going to be another one of those "good thing it didn't have another day" storms. It's pretty interesting how frequently this happens, happened with Beryl too.

TBH, I think this is a storm that actually had another day. 120mph already Cat 3. I mean it has another 8 hours (give or take) till landfall.

[PavelGaborik10]

Seems like Helene is going to be another one of those "good thing it didn't have another day" storms. It's pretty interesting how frequently this happens, happened with Beryl too.

And to think even with all of the struggles she's still a mere 10 MPH off of a category 4 and is a mid range 3.

If RI continues until landfall we could still certainly see a mid range cat 4 monster later tonight, but lets see what happens.

[ConvergenceZone]

There were multiple professionals on social media talking about the potential for this to reach category 5, I mean good lord Recon is finding category 3 winds right now and that's on top of all of the structural issues.

It's simply not logical to think that this wouldn't be a category higher right now with an extra 24 hours over bathwater and an eddie to intensify.

It's not being mad, it's simply being objective and realistic.

With what recon just found, I still wouldn't even write off a mid range 4.

enough! stop already please. We get it!

I mean you could literally just stop replying rather than responding and continuing the debate that YOU initiated in the first place.

It isn't that serious, or complex for that matter my man lol

All that matterS is that it's going to be a catastrophic monster. Everything else is irrelevant. END OF DISCUSSION.

[Travorum]

Wow, I wasn't expecting them to go all the way up to 105kts, looks like they didn't really blend the data with SFMR.

[Pipelines182]

Seems like Helene is going to be another one of those "good thing it didn't have another day" storms. It's pretty interesting how frequently this happens, happened with Beryl too.

TBH, I think this is a storm that actually had another day. 120mph already Cat 3. I mean it has another 8 hours (give or take) till landfall.

With those conditions, another day could have made those HAFS runs become reality though