ATL: KIRK - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[WaveBreaking]

Eye now at 20.99°C. CDO expanding.

[aspen]

Eye now at 20.99°C. CDO expanding.

https://i.imgur.com/pmG93cE.png

Textbook Cat 5. And I thought Gilma’s peak estimates were bad lol

[PDKlikatino]

Between Kirk, Leslie, Gilma, and plenty of other storms this season, it seems like NHC is not on top of things in terms of measuring the intensity. I'm fairly certain that it was mentioned that the NHC isn't going to use SFMR measurements for the remainder of the season but surely there's something going on. Does anyone have any theories as to what might be the case, because I'm stumped.

[Travorum]

And there we have it, ADT CI# reaches 7.0 on a “125kt” storm.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 OCT 2024 Time : 004020 UTC
Lat : 21:09:35 N Lon : 47:09:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 919.2mb/140.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.0 6.9 6.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 22 km

Center Temp : +20.1C Cloud Region Temp : -72.1C

[aspen]

Between Kirk, Leslie, Gilma, and plenty of other storms this season, it seems like NHC is not on top of things in terms of measuring the intensity. I'm fairly certain that it was mentioned that the NHC isn't going to use SFMR measurements for the remainder of the season but surely there's something going on. Does anyone have any theories as to what might be the case, because I'm stumped.

Can you confirm that because if it’s true they’re disregarding SFMR for the rest of the season…that’s insane. And possibly the worst decision they’ve ever made. Why toss out an entire set of measurements? Sure they’re not perfect, but that isn’t an excuse to disregard them.

[cheezyWXguy]

Between Kirk, Leslie, Gilma, and plenty of other storms this season, it seems like NHC is not on top of things in terms of measuring the intensity. I'm fairly certain that it was mentioned that the NHC isn't going to use SFMR measurements for the remainder of the season but surely there's something going on. Does anyone have any theories as to what might be the case, because I'm stumped.

Planes from the 1970s? Degraded equipment? Radar holes? Could it be insufficient allocation of funds? No, no, conspiracy is afoot.

[Stormybajan]

Major Hurricane Kirk is a thing of absolute beauty right now , with Lesli behind it also poised to become another strong October MDR cane, this will definitely be another record for longest duration in a season for the first MDR Major and the last one, (From June 28th- till whenever Leslie stops being a major IF it gets there :p ) . Looks like that 934 mb record has so far as the deepest storm will be broken at 5 am given ATCF says Kirk is now 145 mph and 935mb! Very much Lorenzo-like! Possibly a 50+ ACE October incoming??

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Between Kirk, Leslie, Gilma, and plenty of other storms this season, it seems like NHC is not on top of things in terms of measuring the intensity. I'm fairly certain that it was mentioned that the NHC isn't going to use SFMR measurements for the remainder of the season but surely there's something going on. Does anyone have any theories as to what might be the case, because I'm stumped.

Counterpoint: Hurricane Beryl was assessed real-time to be Category 5, and they upgraded accordingly.

Does anyone know what the satellite data was at when NHC operationally upgraded 2019's Lorenzo to Cat 5?

[aspen]

Between Kirk, Leslie, Gilma, and plenty of other storms this season, it seems like NHC is not on top of things in terms of measuring the intensity. I'm fairly certain that it was mentioned that the NHC isn't going to use SFMR measurements for the remainder of the season but surely there's something going on. Does anyone have any theories as to what might be the case, because I'm stumped.

Counterpoint: Hurricane Beryl was assessed real-time to be Category 5, and they upgraded accordingly.

Does anyone know what the satellite data was at when NHC operationally upgraded 2019's Lorenzo to Cat 5?

Beryl had recon, these systems don’t. And they’re going below satellite estimates for no justified reason. It’s baffling

[cheezyWXguy]

Between Kirk, Leslie, Gilma, and plenty of other storms this season, it seems like NHC is not on top of things in terms of measuring the intensity. I'm fairly certain that it was mentioned that the NHC isn't going to use SFMR measurements for the remainder of the season but surely there's something going on. Does anyone have any theories as to what might be the case, because I'm stumped.

Can you confirm that because if it’s true they’re disregarding SFMR for the rest of the season…that’s insane. And possibly the worst decision they’ve ever made. Why toss out an entire set of measurements? Sure they’re not perfect, but that isn’t an excuse to disregard them.

Yes wxman57 posted their statement on the talking tropics forum. They’ve determined that the equipment they use for sfmr measurements has degraded to the point of being unreliable. I assume replacement and calibration takes more time than they expect to have between flights during hurricane season, so they aren’t planning to do so before the end of the season.

[Travorum]

Between Kirk, Leslie, Gilma, and plenty of other storms this season, it seems like NHC is not on top of things in terms of measuring the intensity. I'm fairly certain that it was mentioned that the NHC isn't going to use SFMR measurements for the remainder of the season but surely there's something going on. Does anyone have any theories as to what might be the case, because I'm stumped.

Can you confirm that because if it’s true they’re disregarding SFMR for the rest of the season…that’s insane. And possibly the worst decision they’ve ever made. Why toss out an entire set of measurements? Sure they’re not perfect, but that isn’t an excuse to disregard them.

Comes from wxman57 over in the gulf AOI thread:

Thought y'all might find this interesting. No more SFMR data this year. It was deemed too unreliable.

https://wxman57.com/images/SFMR.JPG

https://wxman57.com/images/SFMR.JPG

It seems to be because of a lack of data integrity rather than some systematic error in the wind speed algorithm, but that's just my speculation based on what NOAA said.

[zzzh]

Reminded me of Sam.

[aspen]

Between Kirk, Leslie, Gilma, and plenty of other storms this season, it seems like NHC is not on top of things in terms of measuring the intensity. I'm fairly certain that it was mentioned that the NHC isn't going to use SFMR measurements for the remainder of the season but surely there's something going on. Does anyone have any theories as to what might be the case, because I'm stumped.

Can you confirm that because if it’s true they’re disregarding SFMR for the rest of the season…that’s insane. And possibly the worst decision they’ve ever made. Why toss out an entire set of measurements? Sure they’re not perfect, but that isn’t an excuse to disregard them.

Yes wxman57 posted their statement on the talking tropics forum. They’ve determined that the equipment they use for sfmr measurements has degraded to the point of being unreliable. I assume replacement and calibration takes more time than they expect to have between flights during hurricane season, so they aren’t planning to do so before the end of the season.

Hmm. Hopefully they fix what they can in the off-season.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Between Kirk, Leslie, Gilma, and plenty of other storms this season, it seems like NHC is not on top of things in terms of measuring the intensity. I'm fairly certain that it was mentioned that the NHC isn't going to use SFMR measurements for the remainder of the season but surely there's something going on. Does anyone have any theories as to what might be the case, because I'm stumped.

Counterpoint: Hurricane Beryl was assessed real-time to be Category 5, and they upgraded accordingly.

Does anyone know what the satellite data was at when NHC operationally upgraded 2019's Lorenzo to Cat 5?

Just went back and checked for myself... NHC did upgrade when Dvorak hit 7.0 that night in 2019. Not upgrading Kirk to Category 5 would be a bit inconsistent with previous rationale.

[Travorum]

Between Kirk, Leslie, Gilma, and plenty of other storms this season, it seems like NHC is not on top of things in terms of measuring the intensity. I'm fairly certain that it was mentioned that the NHC isn't going to use SFMR measurements for the remainder of the season but surely there's something going on. Does anyone have any theories as to what might be the case, because I'm stumped.

Counterpoint: Hurricane Beryl was assessed real-time to be Category 5, and they upgraded accordingly.

Does anyone know what the satellite data was at when NHC operationally upgraded 2019's Lorenzo to Cat 5?

ADT was at CI# 7.0, raw T#7.3 just prior to upgrade:
 https://x.com/CC_StormWatch/status/1178125334979514368




There was also a special manual estimate at T7.0:

TXNT26 KNES 290144
TCSNTL
A. 13L (LORENZO)
B. 29/0130Z
C. 24.0N
D. 44.8W
E. ONE/GOES-E
F. T7.0/7.0
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS...SPECIAL CLASSIFICATION FOR NHC. WMG EYE IS EMBEDDED IN
AND SURROUNDED BY W RESULTING IN A DT OF 7.0 AFTER 1.0 IS ADDED FOR AN
EYE ADJUSTMENT. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...TURK

This was the dvorak satellite appearance at the time:

[zzzh]

[cheezyWXguy]

Between Kirk, Leslie, Gilma, and plenty of other storms this season, it seems like NHC is not on top of things in terms of measuring the intensity. I'm fairly certain that it was mentioned that the NHC isn't going to use SFMR measurements for the remainder of the season but surely there's something going on. Does anyone have any theories as to what might be the case, because I'm stumped.

Counterpoint: Hurricane Beryl was assessed real-time to be Category 5, and they upgraded accordingly.

Does anyone know what the satellite data was at when NHC operationally upgraded 2019's Lorenzo to Cat 5?

Beryl had recon, these systems don’t. And they’re going below satellite estimates for no justified reason. It’s baffling

I agree there seems to be a hesitancy to upgrade storms that don’t have recon during peak intensity, or at all, but this isn’t a new thing. Sam 21, Eta 20, Jose 17, Igor 10 are the storms I can think of off the bat that either didn’t have recon at peak intensity, or at all. I’m sure there are others, and each one has their cult following. I’d call myself a member of some of them.

[sasha_B]

Between Kirk, Leslie, Gilma, and plenty of other storms this season, it seems like NHC is not on top of things in terms of measuring the intensity. I'm fairly certain that it was mentioned that the NHC isn't going to use SFMR measurements for the remainder of the season but surely there's something going on. Does anyone have any theories as to what might be the case, because I'm stumped.

Planes from the 1970s? Degraded equipment? Radar holes? Could it be insufficient allocation of funds? No, no, conspiracy is afoot.

I mean, I don't think anyone's trying to imply conspiracy. But it does seem to be the case that the NHC has been unusually conservative about making certain calls on several occasions in both the Atlantic and the Pacific this season. More transparency with regard to why they treat certain intensity estimates from (for example, or from recon) as suspect/inadequate evidence would perhaps clarify things for those who are confused or doubtful. They're experts & surely have their reasons for making these decisions - but considering the (apparent) discrepencies between their standards this year compared to years past I don't think it's all that 'conspiratorial' to wonder whether there mightn't have been some changes to policy in addition to issues with equipment, funding, &c - it's a subject that's been raised quite a few times by various commentators here and elsewhere over the past few months.

[dexterlabio]

Yeah, this is a Cat 5

[Ubuntwo]

With a T6.5 fix and rather transient peak, it will be very tough to get an upgrade. Only data point supporting 140kt is ADT for now. I'm sure recon would find 140kt winds, but the NHC does not issue intensities on vibes.