ATL: MILTON - Models

[BobHarlem]

18z HMON is Cedar Key, shift left for it from Crystal River, also 12 hours later landfall than the 12z. Like the HAFS models, it rapidly weakens before landfall.

[chris_fit]

18z Euro looks weaker than 12z through 90 hours and a tad south.

[gatorcane]

18z Euro looks weaker than 12z through 90 hours and a tad south.

Weaker = more south. That's probably why we see the hurricane models more north since they are very strong.

[TampaWxLurker]

18z HMON is Cedar Key, shift left for it from Crystal River, also 12 hours later landfall than the 12z. Like the HAFS models, it rapidly weakens before landfall.

https://i.imgur.com/CRJ36m8.png

Landfall 18z Thursday is a lot later. Good gosh. Models are all over the place on this thing.

[gatorcane]

12Z EC-AIFS:

[chris_fit]

18z EPS.... Wow... R. I. P. Tampa Bay

[Flwxguy86]

I put a little less weight into the the interim models like 06z and 18z, They always seem to be off compared to what I'd call the "main runs". I don't know if maybe there is less data in them or something but it seems that way to me.

[BobHarlem]

18z HWRF late Wednesday night New Port Richey landfall, very bad for Bay surge here. Just a left shift from St. Pete, timing is the same as 12z.

[aspen]

HWRF, HMON, and HAFS-A all show Milton getting absolutely obliterated by shear as much as a full 24 hours prior to landfall. The contrast between a 160 kt/901 mbar Cat 5 Tuesday evening and a sheared mess barely 12 hours later on the HAFS-A is insane.

[gatorcane]

18z EPS.... Wow... R. I. P. Tampa Bay

I don't have access to the 18Z but the 12Z also look like RIP for Tampa Bay too:

[Teban54]

I put a little less weight into the the interim models like 06z and 18z, They always seem to be off compared to what I'd call the "main runs". I don't know if maybe there is less data in them or something but it seems that way to me.

I thought someone said this year that 6z and 18z now have as much data as 0z and 12z, at least for global models, even though that wasn't the case before?

[eastcoastFL]

HWRF, HMON, and HAFS-A all show Milton getting absolutely obliterated by shear as much as a full 24 hours prior to landfall. The contrast between a 160 kt/901 mbar Cat 5 Tuesday evening and a sheared mess barely 12 hours later on the HAFS-A is insane.

That “sheared mess” is still 942mb.

[gatorcane]

00Z guidance:

[cycloneye]

00z intensity.

[AutoPenalti]

tad left this run looks like

[aspen]

HWRF, HMON, and HAFS-A all show Milton getting absolutely obliterated by shear as much as a full 24 hours prior to landfall. The contrast between a 160 kt/901 mbar Cat 5 Tuesday evening and a sheared mess barely 12 hours later on the HAFS-A is insane.

That “sheared mess” is still 942mb.

I doubt it’d have Cat 4 or even 3 sustained surface-level winds with a radar presentation like that, though. Almost looks like it’s beginning post-tropical transition.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

00z TVCN has not budged. I do not expect any shift north at 11pm.

[Steve]

Early cycle 00z’s out agreeing with Gatorcanes graphic. Not that it’s going to be some Armageddon stuff but Lakeland, Ocala, Gainesville, etc. y’all already know.

https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtim ... _early.png

[Pelicane]

The HWRF really highlights the broadening of Milton's windfield as it nears the coast. Even if the storm is weaking, the storm's size would be expanding which would heighten the storm surge risk.

https://imgur.com/gallery/8Q3hgTm

[eastcoastFL]

00Z guidance:
https://i.postimg.cc/Z5yGJpZP/14-L-tracks-00z.png

The timing on that little SW dip that some models show could be interesting. If that plays out as it’s crossing the state it could put some unsuspecting areas under the gun.