ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nimbus]

NHC keeps moving the goalposts, " it's not going east" then they update the track to the new east position and still keep the final destination. Which is all good i guess?

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_flanim.gif Let's see if for the 3rd time today already when they moved the current track location that it actually stays over the line and not to the west or east of it again.

NHC keeps moving the short term track but not the landfall, bizarre

The track curves stays west of buoy 42036 (I hope).
My generator is tested 60.5 Hz at 119 volts under load.

[jasons2k]

Stop arguing over who said what. Now the Mods have posts to delete. Keep it up and vacations will be handed out.

[zal0phus]

Seems like Helene is going to be another one of those "good thing it didn't have another day" storms. It's pretty interesting how frequently this happens, happened with Beryl too.

TBH, I think this is a storm that actually had another day. 120mph already Cat 3. I mean it has another 8 hours (give or take) till landfall.

To think it's jumped almost 40 mph in the past twelve hours. Who knows what else it could do before landfall?

[LandoWill]

Not evening raining and electric flipped a few times already. sigh that's the worst part - no electric heh

[Pipelines182]

I'm not seeing any 105 kt surface readings from recon, am I missing them?

[TampaWxLurker]

Denis Phillips on air just now said he expects landfall a bit east of official forecast in western Taylor County.

[Zarniwoop]

Where are they getting 120 mph?

[FLLurker32]

I’m around 250 miles NE of the eye and we’re already getting some pretty gnarly gusts in North central FL. The wind field on this is monstrous. I might need to secure a few extra things I thought would be ok.

[Michele B]

Is it the fugiwhara like effect that’s sucking moisture up? The big bands of moisture have mostly disappeared.

Good question.

Is it that the storm is "consolidating" (iow: pulling her "bands" in) in order to strengthen up?

[Beef Stew]

A little surprised by 120 mph at the update- I was expecting 115 from the recon data- but we officially have ourselves a major hurricane, and one with another 6+ hours over water at that.

What I find particularly notable is just how expansive those hurricane force winds are on Helene’s eastern side. With her forward speed and size, I fear there is going to be substantial inland wind damage throughout northern Florida and southern Georgia, and to a degree that many residents aren’t expecting.

[ElectricStorm]

Assuming a landfall in about 8 hours (roughly) Helene would need an increase of:
10kts for Cat 4, probably likely at this point
35kts for Cat 5 (around 4.4kts increase per hour) not likely but not impossible.

Considering it's now 105kts, mid range Cat 4 is very possible

[aspen]

105 kt is higher than I would have gone. A blend of standard FL-to-surface conversions and SFMR supports 95-100 kt from the latest pass.

[Ubuntwo]

I'm not seeing any 105 kt surface readings from recon, am I missing them?

Reduction of flight level winds is 103.5kt. This alone supports 105kt as the NHC does round. However, due to typical undersampling of a TC of this size, 105% is sometimes used as a 'conversion factor'. This would support 108.7kt and I guess they get 105kt with some consideration of SFMR. NHC has mentioned this undersampling correction in their TCR for Ian and there have been several research papers on the matter.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
225 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND HELENE A MAJOR HURRICANE...

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters found that the maximum sustained
winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h). This makes
Helene a dangerous category 3 major hurricane. Additional
strengthening is expected before Helene makes landfall in the
Florida Big Bend this evening.

SUMMARY OF 225 PM EDT...1825 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 84.9W
ABOUT 170 MI...280 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

$$

[Kazmit]

Seems like Helene is going to be another one of those "good thing it didn't have another day" storms. It's pretty interesting how frequently this happens, happened with Beryl too.

That's almost every Gulf storm. I mean, every storm that enters the Gulf is guaranteed to landfall, so time is always of the essence.

[InfernoFlameCat]

The Eyewall is absolutely blowing up right now in convection. This is not looking good at all. At this rate Cat 4 is becoming more and more likely. It is shocking how quickly Helene started intensifying once it cleared all the dry air.

[weeniepatrol]

[Soluna16]

I just got a surprisingly strong gust in North Orlando considering how nice of a day it is otherwise. Seems like a pretty expansive wind field.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

108 knot flight level winds off the coast of Tampa... not making it to the surface, but those cells are extremely intense.

[GCANE]

Looks like she is over the main current of the Loop Current.
No wonder she is going ballistic