ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Pas_Bon]

Abundant mesovortices and lightning in the eyewall, CDO cooling dramatically, -90s in the eastern eyewall. She is in the process of RI right now.

https://i.postimg.cc/Ls503VZW/KTBW-Super-Res-Reflectivity-1-13-23.png

This will NOT be a fun one for those that chose to ride it out. Yikes.

[chris_fit]

And finally we have a wobble back to the left.

[Pipelines182]

I'm not seeing any 105 kt surface readings from recon, am I missing them?

Reduction of flight level winds is 103.5kt. This alone supports 105kt as the NHC does round. However, due to typical undersampling of a TC of this size, 105% is sometimes used as a 'conversion factor'. This would support 108.7kt and I guess they get 105kt with some consideration of SFMR. NHC has mentioned this undersampling correction in their TCR for Ian and there have been several research papers on the matter.

If I have one complaint about the NHC it's the inconsistency here. How often have we seen flight level winds that support an upgrade (after the conversion factor) yet they don't do it? I wonder if there's more of a human factor here rather than a scientific one.

[Bocadude85]

NHC keeps moving the goalposts, " it's not going east" then they update the track to the new east position and still keep the final destination. Which is all good i guess?

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_flanim.gif Let's see if for the 3rd time today already when they moved the current track location that it actually stays over the line and not to the west or east of it again.

That’s not NHC changing the forecast, the radar updates with the 2pm position update from the NHC. That line then shows the movement need to reach the 11am landfall location.

[ronjon]

Winds out of the S-SE now in Ft Myers gusting to 61 mph. Winds out of the SE in Sarasota gusting to 54 mph.

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/NWStornado/status/1839374861275464124

[johngaltfla]

Winds out of the S-SE now in Ft Myers gusting to 61 mph. Winds out of the SE in Sarasota gusting to 54 mph.

That seems about right. Was just outside moving one last thing and 50's seems about right. Just wondering how much rain we'll get from the backside.

[ScottNAtlanta]

The rain is back again here in Atlanta coming down at a good clip. Looks like some heavier stuff will arrive in the next hour or so

[Laser30033003]

what time will the peak winds hit Pinellas ??? Now ??

[InfernoFlameCat]

This is some astonishing intensification right now. -90C tops are booming with -80C tops wrapping around the center. High end Cat 4 possible if it keeps this up till landfall.

[NDG]

Latest satellite loop, that eastern eyewall looks furious.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I've got all my battery powered lamps out and checked them all. I have a ton of fresh batteries, everything is charged up, and I went outside this morning and cleared all the storm drains...I went to the supermarket yesterday which was good since they are mobbed today. I think I am as ready as I will ever be

[HurricaneBelle]

what time will the peak winds hit Pinellas ??? Now ??

In a few hours after the center passes our latitude and the winds swing around to the SW, directly off the Gulf and without the friction across land where the winds are currently coming from.

[Kingarabian]

B ring keeps breaking on BD imagery. Needs to hold it or the eye needs to warm more to justify a 6.0/Cat.4. But it can do it before landfall.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Latest MW

[ronjon]

Eye looks to be contracting on radar...no bueno.

[drewschmaltz]

Here in Orlando we've had a few of these storms go by a similar distance away over the past several years. This looks like the most consistent wind I've seen from those. You can just tell something big and powerful is out there. Honestly thankful it's not coming here.

[cycloneye]

He may have to go east from that position.

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1839377252326543519

[FLpanhandle91]

Doppler velocities increasing by the minute.

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

That thing does not look like it is heading north to the forecast track. It looks like its heading to northern Citrus County/Levy county area. But these loops do play tricks with your eyes and i may not even be looking at the true center