ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Just an incredible evolution overnight. The original structure completely collapsed as a new eyewall rapidly took place. Under-the-hood, Milton is a dramatically different storm than last night.

 https://x.com/WxNB_/status/1843593677274276009

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/WxPatel/status/1843613385805480109

[ColdMiser123]

 https://twitter.com/WxNB_/status/1843593677274276009

[eastcoastFL]

Has anyone looked at the latest ships shear forecast? I don't know if I'm reading it properly but to me it looks like the heavier shear won't hit Milton until he's onshore.

[eastcoastFL]

Milton has winds of 155mph... so isn't that a cat 5...yet I heard that its a cat 4 ...??

156 is cat 5. It's a strong 4

[kevin]

Has anyone looked at the latest ships shear forecast? I don't know if I'm reading it properly but to me it looks like the heavier shear won't hit Milton until he's onshore.

Indeed, the last ships shear forecast has 26 kt at the +36 timestamp and 39 kt at the +48 timestamp just after landfall. Shear will most likely be in roughly the same direction as Milton so you can take another 10 kt or so from that value. Relative shear might thus only be 15 - 30 kt at landfall, much lower than the 40 - 50 kt we saw a few days ago. I can elaborate further, but I think we all understand that it isn't good news.

[GCANE]

Just found a good map that represents OHC and the Loop Current.

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dhos/alt ... ents%20are



Looks like Milton will be over slightly cooler water this morning.
Once he clear the Yucatan, it will be a step change in OHC as he gets over the Loop Current.
Maybe another round of explosive intensification then?

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Has anyone looked at the latest ships shear forecast? I don't know if I'm reading it properly but to me it looks like the heavier shear won't hit Milton until he's onshore.

Indeed, the last ships shear forecast has 26 kt at the +36 timestamp and 39 kt at the +48 timestamp just after landfall. Shear will most likely be in roughly the same direction as Milton so you can take another 10 kt or so from that value. Relative shear might thus only be 15 - 30 kt at landfall, much lower than the 40 - 50 kt we saw a few days ago. I can elaborate further, but I think we all understand that it isn't good news.

30 knots of shear is still a lot. And small storms feel it more.

[Canelaw99]

Doing a good job of walling off the dry air so that is not going to help

https://i.imgur.com/P2TZ41M.gif

Total amateur, though long time member — is that blue area across FL essentially Milton’s highway? It seems the bright yellow/orange area to its north would keep it from progressing further north. Is that right? (I know the actual meteorological stuff is way more complex, just looking to simplify for myself and other amateurs) thanks y’all!!!

[kevin]

Has anyone looked at the latest ships shear forecast? I don't know if I'm reading it properly but to me it looks like the heavier shear won't hit Milton until he's onshore.

Indeed, the last ships shear forecast has 26 kt at the +36 timestamp and 39 kt at the +48 timestamp just after landfall. Shear will most likely be in roughly the same direction as Milton so you can take another 10 kt or so from that value. Relative shear might thus only be 15 - 30 kt at landfall, much lower than the 40 - 50 kt we saw a few days ago. I can elaborate further, but I think we all understand that it isn't good news.

30 knots of shear is still a lot. And small storms feel it more.

Yes I agree, Milton will most likely be weakening on approach. But the shear forecast could make the difference between a high-end cat 2/low-end cat 3 or a high-end cat 3/low-end cat 4.

[GCANE]

4500 CAPE now over the Keys.
East GoM is charging up.

[InfernoFlameCat]

It looks like the hurricane is intensifying again, with extrap of 926mb, compared to a dropsonde from a little while ago with a pressure showing 932mb with 17 knot winds (=930mb)

[kevin]

Both planes are entering the eye now.

AF309
926.9 mb extrapolated with 11 kt winds nearby -> 926 mb
125 kt FL in the NW eyewall
135 kt SFMR

NOAA3
930.4 mb extrapolated, almost at the center
137 kt FL in the NE eyewall

[NDG]

Looks like pressure is dropping.

URNT15 KNHC 081133
AF309 1414A MILTON HDOB 15 20241008
112500 2246N 08905W 6971 02991 9875 +095 +039 050053 056 056 007 00
112530 2245N 08904W 6963 02992 9872 +088 +039 046057 062 058 006 00
112600 2243N 08903W 6972 02971 9860 +089 +042 053064 066 062 003 00
112630 2242N 08902W 6966 02967 9830 +104 +039 058069 071 065 003 00
112700 2241N 08900W 6969 02947 9818 +099 +041 062078 081 070 002 00
112730 2240N 08859W 6962 02933 9797 +096 +045 062081 082 074 003 00
112800 2239N 08858W 6975 02897 9777 +094 +049 063084 085 078 012 00
112830 2238N 08857W 6963 02887 9753 +092 +046 062090 094 080 021 00
112900 2237N 08856W 6973 02852 9728 +090 +045 057094 096 087 044 00
112930 2236N 08855W 6974 02817 9695 +083 +041 052101 103 098 067 00
113000 2235N 08854W 6959 02785 9628 +086 +053 064115 125 111 086 00
113030 2234N 08853W 6966 02714 9554 +090 +077 067099 123 134 042 00
113100 2233N 08851W 6963 02649 9451 +138 +064 057070 078 135 031 00
113130 2232N 08850W 6999 02567 9367 +185 +066 059051 063 128 000 00
113200 2230N 08849W 6974 02562 9334 +179 +066 069029 040 072 003 00
113230 2229N 08848W 6975 02544 9323 +170 +071 073015 025 028 002 00
113300 2227N 08848W 6979 02526 9302 +178 +077 319006 011 020 001 03
113330 2226N 08846W 6980 02517 9269 +207 +070 233026 035 026 000 00
113400 2224N 08845W 6929 02596 9280 +212 +069 236050 053 030 000 03
113430 2223N 08846W 7019 02487 9291 +211 +079 256055 058 061 001 00
$$
;

[GCANE]

Rapid warming of the eye now

[kevin]

Based on recon so far I think Milton was around 115 kt when the first plane arrived. The 137 kt FL shows significant strengthening in the last few hours and means Milton is most likely around 125 kt now. The pressure might only be down a couple of mb, but once the eye clears that will also drop at a higher rate.

[GCANE]

Dammmmn!
Nearly 90mm/hr rain rate.
I think that is the highest I have ever seen.
Latent heating of the core is accelerating.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Eye looks to be clearing on IR. Should have our first visible images in the next few minutes.

[aspen]

Pressure seems to be steady or maybe slightly increasing between passes.

[xironman]

Doing a good job of walling off the dry air so that is not going to help

https://i.imgur.com/P2TZ41M.gif

Total amateur, though long time member — is that blue area across FL essentially Milton’s highway? It seems the bright yellow/orange area to its north would keep it from progressing further north. Is that right? (I know the actual meteorological stuff is way more complex, just looking to simplify for myself and other amateurs) thanks y’all!!!

The yellow orange is dry air that would snuff the storm out. Blue is basically moist tropical air that would not have negative effects. Green is clouds and convection. Until those yellows start to get dragged into the circulation (normally by shear pushing it in) you won't see dry air degradation.