ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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jdjaguar
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3001 Postby jdjaguar » Thu Sep 26, 2024 4:03 pm

951mb
As predicted
Do I receive a prize?
:)
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FLpanhandle91
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3002 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Thu Sep 26, 2024 4:04 pm

Eye is rapidly warming and clearing.
Image
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3003 Postby Hurrilurker » Thu Sep 26, 2024 4:05 pm

On satellite, looks like it just took a big jog to the right (east).
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3004 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Sep 26, 2024 4:06 pm

The craziest thing looking at the updated forecast map is seeing this as still a 105 mph hurricane at 11:00 PM and the position is well north of Tallahassee. Can't remember the last time I've seen a hurricane fairly strong that far inland. Wind damage of this thing will be absolutely insane.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3005 Postby BIFF_THE_UNRULY » Thu Sep 26, 2024 4:06 pm

Hurrilurker wrote:On satellite, looks like it just took a big jog to the right (east).

very slight. Big isn't the world i would use. Maybe 2 miles east
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3006 Postby HurricaneBelle » Thu Sep 26, 2024 4:07 pm

psyclone wrote:TS conditions here. Extra spicy. Power flashes....we're going dark soon


My son, who's off 19/Tampa Rd and lost power for almost a day during Debby, is currently part of a 3K customer power outage. My neighborhood has underground lines and stayed up all through Debby and is still up, but something can always happen downstream.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3007 Postby Nimbus » Thu Sep 26, 2024 4:08 pm

NDG wrote:70 mph wind gusts now in downtown St Pete.

Sep 26, 4:24 pm 85 78 80 97 SSE 44G70


Power outage count just jumped to 38,000 with the last squall through St Pete.
May be worse than Idalia for Tampa bay?
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ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3008 Postby Sanibel » Thu Sep 26, 2024 4:11 pm

Contracting eye (Intensifying)...
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3009 Postby Teban54 » Thu Sep 26, 2024 4:12 pm

You know a storm is bombing out when significant improvements are obvious on 1-min floaters.

Image
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3010 Postby Travorum » Thu Sep 26, 2024 4:12 pm

Nimbus wrote:
NDG wrote:70 mph wind gusts now in downtown St Pete.

Sep 26, 4:24 pm 85 78 80 97 SSE 44G70


Power outage count just jumped to 38,000 with the last squall through St Pete.
May be worse than Idalia for Tampa bay?


Using the novel and scientifically accurate BFMB model (branches fallen in my backyard) this is shaping up worse than Idalia in Pinellas county.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3011 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 26, 2024 4:13 pm

JBCycloneStan wrote:
aspen wrote:It’s been hours of wrapping convective bursts, and the eye has still not cleared. I’m doubtful it will; several hurricane model runs predicted this.


lol and the eye is clearing out as we speak

Welp, does anyone have some spare crow?
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3012 Postby zal0phus » Thu Sep 26, 2024 4:14 pm

aspen wrote:
JBCycloneStan wrote:
aspen wrote:It’s been hours of wrapping convective bursts, and the eye has still not cleared. I’m doubtful it will; several hurricane model runs predicted this.


lol and the eye is clearing out as we speak

Welp, does anyone have some spare crow?


Yeah can I get crow with a side of hot towers? Hold the dry air slots
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Do not take anything I say seriously as a form of meteorological prediction. I am not a meteorologist; I don't think being in law school translates to any special knowledge. I am just a somewhat bullish amateur watcher.

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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3013 Postby BIFF_THE_UNRULY » Thu Sep 26, 2024 4:14 pm

aspen wrote:
JBCycloneStan wrote:
aspen wrote:It’s been hours of wrapping convective bursts, and the eye has still not cleared. I’m doubtful it will; several hurricane model runs predicted this.


lol and the eye is clearing out as we speak

Welp, does anyone have some spare crow?


I know its a figure of speech and you joke but crow is eaten round them parts' of Florida bout to get hit. Still something you see in the rural areas, not unheard of. Squirrels too.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3014 Postby Pipelines182 » Thu Sep 26, 2024 4:15 pm

aspen wrote:
JBCycloneStan wrote:
aspen wrote:It’s been hours of wrapping convective bursts, and the eye has still not cleared. I’m doubtful it will; several hurricane model runs predicted this.


lol and the eye is clearing out as we speak

Welp, does anyone have some spare crow?

I can't finish mine, too much to eat, do you want some?
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3015 Postby FLLurker32 » Thu Sep 26, 2024 4:16 pm

aspen wrote:
JBCycloneStan wrote:
aspen wrote:It’s been hours of wrapping convective bursts, and the eye has still not cleared. I’m doubtful it will; several hurricane model runs predicted this.


lol and the eye is clearing out as we speak

Welp, does anyone have some spare crow?


I read this right as I’m listening to the birds outside throw an absolute fit at the wind gusts we have coming in. :lol:
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3016 Postby Teban54 » Thu Sep 26, 2024 4:16 pm

aspen wrote:
JBCycloneStan wrote:
aspen wrote:It’s been hours of wrapping convective bursts, and the eye has still not cleared. I’m doubtful it will; several hurricane model runs predicted this.


lol and the eye is clearing out as we speak

Welp, does anyone have some spare crow?

Nah, crows have been sold out to all the people who said yesterday and this morning that Helene won't even become a major.
Last edited by Teban54 on Thu Sep 26, 2024 4:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3017 Postby Hurrilurker » Thu Sep 26, 2024 4:16 pm

BIFF_THE_UNRULY wrote:
Hurrilurker wrote:On satellite, looks like it just took a big jog to the right (east).

very slight. Big isn't the world i would use. Maybe 2 miles east

I dunno looks like a sudden lurch of 1/4 to 1/3 a line of longitude to me, which would be ~15-20 miles. Thing is, it might have bounced west-ish before that, making it look like it's diverting more from the track it was on.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3018 Postby chaser1 » Thu Sep 26, 2024 4:17 pm

jdjaguar wrote:951mb
As predicted
Do I receive a prize?
:)


You were close with 950 mb but not quite as close as me with 951 mb on the dot! Tell ya what, I'll split my winnings :wink:
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3019 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Thu Sep 26, 2024 4:17 pm

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My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.

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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3020 Postby Nimbus » Thu Sep 26, 2024 4:18 pm

Travorum wrote:
Nimbus wrote:
NDG wrote:70 mph wind gusts now in downtown St Pete.

Sep 26, 4:24 pm 85 78 80 97 SSE 44G70


Power outage count just jumped to 38,000 with the last squall through St Pete.
May be worse than Idalia for Tampa bay?


Using the novel and scientifically accurate BFMB model (branches fallen in my backyard) this is shaping up worse than Idalia in Pinellas county.


50 knot winds at buoy 42036 off Tampa shifted to E at 80 degrees.
Eye may pass inside of -84.5W at that location which is closer than Idalia.
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