ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[otowntiger]

CDO has gotten worse since I last looked at Milton, now quite lopsided.

Agreed. Based solely on satellite imagery alone from a laymen’s point of view the storm looks like it may be weakening or at least definitely not strengthening.

[Zonacane]

Don't see any structural issues, it would seem Milton successfully pulled through its ERC. Potentially disastrous as Milton is in a very favorable upper-level environment and traversing the highest OHC in the Gulf today. I would bet on Milton re-intensifying into a category 5

[TomballEd]

CDO has gotten worse since I last looked at Milton, now quite lopsided.

Little thin NW of the eye. I wonder what is causing that.

[otowntiger]

CDO has gotten worse since I last looked at Milton, now quite lopsided.

Little thin NW of the eye. I wonder what is causing that.

Maybe predicted shear kicking in early?

[Abdullah]

There is room for this to deepen from where it is now, but it won't get to where it was yesterday namely due to the larger RMW from the larger eye.

Why do you say that?

Isn't air pressure mostly a function of wind speed and size?

[Michele B]

This question has been on my mind for some time so I'm going to go ahead and ask in this forum. Most professionals say to evacuate storm surge which is very important and I completely understand that but why do professionals also not focus on freshwater flooding that could occur from this storm. Some models are showing 24 inches of rain in a very short amount of time and I believe people will be caught off guard by the freshwater flooding from this storm. A suggestion could be just like the NHC used potential storm surge maps maybe the NWS can use potential fresh water flooding maps. From recent storms like Helene a lot people who were asked said that if they knew it would flood like this they would evacuate.

Inland flooding from Helene was well forecast, including news outlets saying it would rival the 1916 flood in the Appalachians. I also have seen warnings up for Milton for inland low lying areas, including graphics showing the extreme flash flooding risk in and around Orlando. I am sure my brother is about to live on a small island because of all the ponds in his subdivision.

The fact that there are people who said “if I’d only known” is an important indicator that the messaging isn’t getting to a lot of people who need it, and that should be a top policy priority to sort out.

"Normalcy bias" They don't believe it because it's outside of their "normal" understand/observations of life up to now.

[Abdullah]

https://i.ibb.co/rxj7vHq/Milton10-07-24.png

Hey, what formula do you use to adjust the pressure for winds?

[Steve H.]

I don’t quite see it that way. Satellite presentation imo shows Milton looking anemic right now. Will he continue to be plagued by shear/dry air from here on out? We can only hope. I really don’t think he will intensify much from now until landfall. Time will tell but this is my opinion only.

[MJGarrison]

Later this afternoon and tonight is when Milton will be moving over the loop current. By this point it will have cleared the Yucatan. Best opportunity for re-intensification into a cat 5 again.

Will the system be moving slowly enough that having the ocean heat replenished by the loop current contributes much?


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[mpic]

Yes, when the blue area gets over the GoM
https://solarham.com/globald.htm

You're joking right?

Space weather is no joke.

Some people have trouble with change.

[Steve]

I don’t quite see it that way. Satellite presentation imo shows Milton looking anemic right now. Will he continue to be plagued by shear/dry air from here on out? We can only hope. I really don’t think he will intensify much from now until landfall. Time will tell but this is my opinion only.

NGL, I'm not thinking anemic looking at the loops.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Despite the impressive microwave images earlier, Milton's northern half seems to be struggling quite a bit. There are also signs of another ERC taking place. Would like to ask other mets to confirm if this is just a culmination of the earlier ERC or the start of another one? I'm seeing mixed signs.

 https://x.com/Sausius_wx/status/1843662133680320635



 https://x.com/weathertrackus/status/1843664585519251488



Strong lightning activity was noted also earlier, and Eric Webb notes conditions do favor *at least some* reintensification afterwards. It still is quite powerful.

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1843641808884293965

[Kazmit]

Agreed that its appearance looks worse than a few hours ago, but it's not dry air.

[Travorum]

Big burst of convection with >-80C tops coming up in the NW.

[Sciencerocks]

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Probably just a wobble, but we are a little to the left this AM compared to the track and ensemble consensus.

[Michele B]

NOAA recon must have dropped a drone inside of the eye like they did during Helene by the number of times they circled around inside of Milton's eye.

https://i.imgur.com/DxFwjuB.jpeg

Can we see the birds?

[GCANE]

Latest eyedrop measures 82% RH at 850mb.
If the trend continues for further drying, it would be an early indication for an onset EWRC.
Let's see how the next eyedrop looks.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... 8-1400.png

[Steve]

You're joking right?

Space weather is no joke.

Some people have trouble with change.

All that **** is over my head, so I only look at the observations and listen to people saying watch out for this or that. But if Milton deepens again early to mid afternoon which isn't typically a time of deepening, there could be some credence. There's also the loop current. But I'm still going to watch it.

[GCANE]

CAPE keeps climbing in the SE GoM.
Now at 4500