ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

CAPE keeps climbing in the SE GoM.
Now at 4500

[WeatherBoy2000]

Despite the impressive microwave images earlier, Milton's northern half seems to be struggling quite a bit. There are also signs of another ERC taking place. Would like to ask other mets to confirm if this is just a culmination of the earlier ERC or the start of another one?

 https://x.com/Sausius_wx/status/1843662133680320635



Strong lightning activity was noted also earlier, however, and Eric Webb notes conditions do favor *at least some* reintensification afterwards. It still is quite powerful.

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1843641808884293965

Milton kinda reminds me of Wilma which peaked hard and quick, that storm never returned to its cat 5 status once it weakened to a cat 4. If you watch the satellite footage of Wilma, once she lost her pinhole eye, she went through quite an extensive restructuring process before coming out with a much larger eye. This might end up being the case for Milton:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7HzcIpcIaO4

[Hurricaneman]

Might just be a hiccup due to the shallower waters near the Yucatán and possibly a bit of cutoff from inflow also due to the Yucatán but seems as the last half hour seems to be wrapping around deep convection and getting renewed inflow moving away from the Yucatán

[Dean_175]

Is there a mobile friendly version of nhc.noaa.gov that Im just not aware of? I cant hover over to see the current intensity and it instead autoclicks and takes me to a track that is several hours past. If not, they seriously need to change this asap. It has been years now and this feature is still mobile unfriendly. I and many others use phones more than computers now. Honestly cant remember the last time I used a computer. And during a storm, it can be the only option.

[MGC]

Dry air is encroaching on Milton this morning. If you look closely at the mid level water vapor loop it appears some dry air has been entrained into Milton's circulation on the NW side of the hurricane. Milton is past its peak and the hostile environment forecast has begun or will shortly. I doubt the hurricane achieves cat-5 intensity again.....MGC

[mpic]

This question has been on my mind for some time so I'm going to go ahead and ask in this forum. Most professionals say to evacuate storm surge which is very important and I completely understand that but why do professionals also not focus on freshwater flooding that could occur from this storm. Some models are showing 24 inches of rain in a very short amount of time and I believe people will be caught off guard by the freshwater flooding from this storm. A suggestion could be just like the NHC used potential storm surge maps maybe the NWS can use potential fresh water flooding maps. From recent storms like Helene a lot people who were asked said that if they knew it would flood like this they would evacuate.

Inland flooding from Helene was well forecast, including news outlets saying it would rival the 1916 flood in the Appalachians. I also have seen warnings up for Milton for inland low lying areas, including graphics showing the extreme flash flooding risk in and around Orlando. I am sure my brother is about to live on a small island because of all the ponds in his subdivision.

The fact that there are people who said “if I’d only known” is an important indicator that the messaging isn’t getting to a lot of people who need it, and that should be a top policy priority to sort out.

I'm in the camp that people who are blindsided just aren't paying attention. They don'tdo their homework and probably wait until last minute to prepare...just my opinion.

[GCANE]

Area of ionospheric heating is starting to come over Milton and there is a massive hot tower now firing on the west eyewall.

https://solarham.com/globald.htm

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined

[tropicwatch]

Is there a mobile friendly version of nhc.noaa.gov that Im just not aware of? I cant hover over to see the current intensity and it instead autoclicks and takes me to a track that is several hours past. If not, they seriously need to change this asap. It has been years now and this feature is still mobile unfriendly. I and many others use phones more than computers now. And during a storm, it can be the only option.

Don't find one for NHC but there appears to be an app for NWS.

[otowntiger]

I don’t quite see it that way. Satellite presentation imo shows Milton looking anemic right now. Will he continue to be plagued by shear/dry air from here on out? We can only hope. I really don’t think he will intensify much from now until landfall. Time will tell but this is my opinion only.

I’m thinking the same thing but I am definitely not an expert either. Milton likes to surprise us. He strgthens remarkably when it wasn’t predicted and now he’s weakening or just holding steady when expected to strengthen.

[tolakram]

Area of ionospheric heating is starting to come over Milton and there is a massive hot tower now firing on the west eyewall.

https://solarham.com/globald.htm

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined

Are you predicting significant strengthening then? What if nothing happens?

[Travorum]

Last recon pass showed a small secondary wind peak in the SE, combined with the microwave, dropsonde, and radar data I would agree that another ERC is in its formative stages.

[Stormgodess]

Space weather is no joke.

Some people have trouble with change.

All that **** is over my head, so I only look at the observations and listen to people saying watch out for this or that. But if Milton deepens again early to mid afternoon which isn't typically a time of deepening, there could be some credence. There's also the loop current. But I'm still going to watch it.

I'm not really understanding the correlation between space weather and Hurricanes, but...

There were Aurora seen all the way into Mississippi and Alabama last night, which has been generally rare outside of our current solar cycle.

[Michele B]

CDO has gotten worse since I last looked at Milton, now quite lopsided.

Little thin NW of the eye. I wonder what is causing that.

Maybe predicted shear kicking in early?

That would be great news!

[underthwx]

Despite the impressive microwave images earlier, Milton's northern half seems to be struggling quite a bit. There are also signs of another ERC taking place. Would like to ask other mets to confirm if this is just a culmination of the earlier ERC or the start of another one?

 https://x.com/Sausius_wx/status/1843662133680320635



Strong lightning activity was noted also earlier, however, and Eric Webb notes conditions do favor *at least some* reintensification afterwards. It still is quite powerful.

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1843641808884293965

Milton kinda reminds me of Wilma which peaked hard and quick, that storm never returned to its cat 5 status once it weakened to a cat 4. If you watch the satellite footage of Wilma, once she lost her pinhole eye, she went through quite an extensive restructuring process before coming out with a much larger eye. This might end up being the case for Milton:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7HzcIpcIaO4

This is from the 10 am NHC update.....does this refer to what you are discussing here?......"Sequences of microwave images and recent Hurricane Hunter
observations suggest that Milton completed an eyewall replacement
overnight, and the new eyewall has contracted down from 22 n mi to
12 nm in diameter. However, it does not appear that the hurricane
weakened much after the eyewall replacement, and it could have
rebounded with the outer eyewall contraction. A dropsonde released
by the NOAA P-3 in the northeastern eyewall recently measured an
average wind of 156 kt in the lowest 150 m of the sounding, which
equates to an intensity of 130 kt. The latest pressure reported by
the planes is 929 mb"......

[underthwx]

Headline from 10 am NHC Milton update.....Archive
...TODAY IS THE LAST FULL DAY FOR FLORIDA RESIDENTS TO GET THEIR FAMILIES AND HOMES READY AND EVACUATE IF TOLD TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...
10:00 AM CDT Tue Oct 8
Location: 22.7°N 88.4°W
Moving: ENE at 9 mph
Min pressure: 929 mb
Max sustained: 150 mph

[GCANE]

Area of ionospheric heating is starting to come over Milton and there is a massive hot tower now firing on the west eyewall.

https://solarham.com/globald.htm

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined

Are you predicting significant strengthening then? What if nothing happens?

I don't think it will be significant since he is over cooler water and the geomagnetic index is dropping.
Maybe just holds its own or slight strengthening.

[kevin]

I'm not sure another EWRC this early is good news. It'll almost certainly prevent Milton from making another sub-900 run in the next 12 hours, but since it still has quite some time until landfall and will travel higher OHC later, it probably won't make that much of a difference regarding the intensity at landfall. However, the wind field will expand even more due to an EWRC, most likely worsening the storm surge.

[KC7NEC]

The latest NHC track has shifted south, which could be a good sign for Tampa Bay. But it’s still too early to breathe easy. If the storm shifts just a bit further north, it would drive a much stronger surge into the bay, creating a far more dangerous situation. Even minor changes in the track can mean a huge difference in the level of flooding. People need to stay alert—just because the track looks better now doesn’t mean the surge threat is over.

[Teban54]

Despite all the talks about dry air, shear and another EWRC, the current IR appearance of Milton certainly looks like a strengthening hurricane, with new convective bursts wrapping the previously weaker quadrants and the eye being the warmest it's been for a few hours.

[tolakram]

Area of ionospheric heating is starting to come over Milton and there is a massive hot tower now firing on the west eyewall.

https://solarham.com/globald.htm

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined

Are you predicting significant strengthening then? What if nothing happens?

I don't think it will be significant since he is over cooler water and the geomagnetic index is dropping.
Maybe just holds its own or slight strengthening.

Unfortunately that's why some are getting frustrated with these predictions. It might be a valid theory, but one cannot ignore effects when it doesn't happen, and confirm it when it does. I am worried we've strayed too far into hocus pocus here rather than rigorous scientific observation. I think it's interesting to observe, but there is no proof of causation.