ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[PavelGaborik10]

Man, she still looks a solid 4+ hours away from landfall.

I must agree with others saying there very well be a 130-135 KT ceiling here

[HurricaneEnzo]

If my eyeball extrapolation is correct, it looks like landfall will occur in roughly 2 hours, give or take- anyone have a more accurate estimate?

Someone was saying around 11pm for landfall

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[Teban54]

I randomly decided to look at how fast each of the other Cat 4+ GoM landfalling storms intensified after reaching Cat 4:

• Michael: 6 hours from 120 to 125, then another 5 hours from 125 to 140
• Laura: 6 hours from 120 to 130, stayed at 130 during last 6 hours just before landfall
• Ida: 6 hours from 115 to 130, stayed at 130 during last 4 hours just before landfall
• Ian: 6 hours from 120 to 140, weakened to 135 in the next 6 hours, then to 130 in the final hour before landfall
• Harvey: Stayed at 115 during last 3 hours just before landfall

Keep in mind that these are very crude measurements due to largely being 6-hr synoptic points.

With the amount of time Helene still has, 130 kt is quite plausible with an intensification rate similar to these past storms. Getting to 135 or 140 kt will require more explosive intensification than these storms, though I wouldn't be surprised. On the other hand, I also wouldn't be surprised if intensification halts during these final hours as Helene gets close to land, similar to what seemingly happened to Laura and Ida.

Edit: I think there's also an unfortunate chance that we may never know Helene's true peak and landfall intensity. The landfall will be in a sparsely populated area with virtually no measurements available, and recon may stop sampling the strongest quadrants just before landfall due to being too close to land.

[Longhornmaniac8]

If my eyeball extrapolation is correct, it looks like landfall will occur in roughly 2 hours, give or take- anyone have a more accurate estimate?

From the update 20 minutes ago, it's about 140 miles from the coast due S of Tallahassee in Apalachee Bay. It's tracking NNE at 23 mph (round to 25 for easy math), and we're looking at about 5.5 hours based on current trajectory.

[Travorum]

If my eyeball extrapolation is correct, it looks like landfall will occur in roughly 2 hours, give or take- anyone have a more accurate estimate?

While forward speed isn't necessarily a constant, Helene is currently about 140mi from landfall and moving at 23mph. Should that forward speed remain constant landfall would be about 6 hours away. I believe Helene is expected to accelerate so altogether I would say landfall should be between 4-6 hours from now.

[Steve]

100% you, I and NDG were on it and maybe a few others. I've lived here since 1976. You kinda learn how these things behave minus the meteorology degree. Credit to Bay News 9 and Spectrum News they've been all over Perry area or Taylor county. Klystron is the real deal!

Maybe a few others. Give it up again for the Icon once again for a Gulf storm in 2024. It’s probably a Top 3 or 4 global these days - at least for the Gulf.

Got to give a shout out to long time storm2k poster Gatorcane too. He noticed the NE path of the GFS last night and made note of it. Of course myself, Steve, NDG and Caneman are all pretty long in the tooth posters here too. If I've left someone else out my apologies

GCANE for the obscure play by play stuff. Got to be my favorite poster.

[Beef Stew]

Maybe a few others. Give it up again for the Icon once again for a Gulf storm in 2024. It’s probably a Top 3 or 4 global these days - at least for the Gulf.

Got to give a shout out to long time storm2k poster Gatorcane too. He noticed the NE path of the GFS last night and made note of it. Of course myself, Steve, NDG and Caneman are all pretty long in the tooth posters here too. If I've left someone else out my apologies

GCANE for the obscure play by play stuff. Got to be my favorite poster.

I'd be really curious to hear some of GCANE's CAPE knowledge during this current bout of explosive intensification.

[Evil Jeremy]

Just caught word that Helene's now a Cat 4. I've completely tuned out the tropics since leaving FL 3 years ago but am praying for my fellow Floridians in the path tonight. Will be staying tuned.

[Bocadude85]

Helene in the past 4 hours has not changed much on a heading near 18 degrees heading based on the recon fixes, it needs to change to a due north heading like right now to be on track.

Yea if she keeps this heading up then the Taylor/Dixie county line is even a possibility.

[aspen]

Man the TC sites are being absolutely inundated. I’m getting 502 errors from both Tropical Tidbits and CyclonicWx from all the traffic.

[Iceresistance]

Man the TC sites are being absolutely inundated. I’m getting 502 errors from both Tropical Tidbits and CyclonicWx from all the traffic.

They all crashed, everyone is going to them and it's crashing the sites

[Kingarabian]

From what I see the eye is DG so with the white ring would mean an initial 6.0 + and an eye adjustment for +0.5. So this is likely going to be pushing high end Cat.4 status if Winds catch up. If CMG wraps around then it will be a 7.0.

[Teban54]

NE quad has FL winds 123 kt, so the strongest winds seem to be E of the eyewall. Last set has extrap pressure 948.8 mb with 64 kt FL winds.

Edit: My bad, it's actually 127 as mentioned below.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

How strong do you think Helene will get? For me it will be between 140 to 150mph

[Travorum]

127kts FL in the NE eyewall, seems like directly east of the eye is still the strongest windspeed wise. This HDOB doesn't get all the way through to the eye but extrap pressure is down to 948.8mb with 64kts FL wind.

NOAA2 1709A HELENE HDOB 17 20240926
223230 2842N 08342W 7523 02320 9806 +160 +166 148089 092 /// /// 05
223300 2841N 08344W 7522 02316 9799 +160 +161 148091 092 /// /// 05
223330 2840N 08345W 7515 02316 9784 +167 +162 149087 089 /// /// 03
223400 2839N 08347W 7512 02314 9783 +161 +169 148092 094 /// /// 05
223430 2837N 08348W 7513 02305 9776 +160 +170 149092 094 /// /// 05
223500 2836N 08349W 7513 02296 9768 +159 +167 147092 093 /// /// 05
223530 2835N 08351W 7515 02286 9755 +163 +164 144094 095 /// /// 05
223600 2834N 08352W 7512 02281 9745 +162 +168 144098 099 /// /// 05
223630 2832N 08354W 7512 02268 9735 +159 +171 146103 104 /// /// 05
223700 2831N 08355W 7511 02258 9721 +159 +169 146104 108 /// /// 05
223730 2830N 08356W 7522 02234 9714 +155 +156 142101 107 /// /// 05
223800 2829N 08358W 7523 02207 9685 +159 +170 143108 112 /// /// 05
223830 2828N 08359W 7529 02175 9656 +162 +172 142113 119 /// /// 05
223900 2826N 08401W 7516 02174 9631 +165 +183 148118 123 /// /// 05
223930 2825N 08402W 7521 02144 9608 +162 +187 151119 123 /// /// 05
224000 2824N 08403W 7542 02099 9586 +164 +189 150115 119 /// /// 05
224030 2823N 08404W 7565 02042 9554 +168 +191 153121 127 /// /// 05
224100 2822N 08406W 7490 02094 9515 +177 +195 160118 126 /// /// 05
224130 2821N 08407W 7479 02108 9497 +187 +198 165073 108 /// /// 05
224200 2820N 08408W 7542 02033 9488 +192 +198 169057 064 /// /// 05

[Category5Kaiju]

How strong do you think Helene will get? For me it will be between 140 to 150mph

145-150 mph is my guess. Maaybbeeee 155.

[kevin]

How strong do you think Helene will get? For me it will be between 140 to 150mph

There will be a 149 kt FL measurements just before landfall. NHC is gonna go with a 135 kt and we're gonna have an endless discussion whether it was a cat 4 or a cat 5.

[Beef Stew]

AF plane is en route to Helene.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Dropsonde was impressive, 150 knots at near drop altitude (instantaneous). I'd say Helene is around 120 knots right now.

[eastcoastFL]

I'll say that this wind field is MASSIVE

I’m 278 miles from the center right now with 50mph gusts at the moment. Pretty insane.

You are on the eastern coast of Florida?...

Yes I am.