ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[LandoWill]

Here in pasco it's really been not much besides some wind. i mean my recycling bin blew over, does that count?

[jdjaguar]

NHC shifted track to the crack..
Might save Tally?


https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

Every mile counts
That's what I'm thinking. Even if only another 15-30 miles further east, would mean Crawfordville & Tally could be 40-50 miles west. That could be the difference between "bad" and "severe"

Some of the gusts are getting pretty strong in Pinellas county almost 100,000 without power as the squalls are coming through. I don't think Tallahassee will be 40 miles west of track but even 5 miles west would drop the wind speeds dramatically.

[Hurricane2022]

Where I can find any data of this buoy near/over the eyewall of Hurricane Helene?

[johngaltfla]

Traffic webcams on fl511.com are showing quite a bit of surge flowing into Siesta Key.

It's a mess here. And of course some idiots did not evacuate from their hotels, tried to make a run and cars are flooding out in sea water near major intersections. When they say evacuate due to surge, they do it for a reason.

[NDG]

Dropsonde shows 944 mb pressure but with 23 knot winds so probably more like 942 mb.

944mb (27.88 inHg)

[Steve]

If you look closely you can see Idalia is sparing Pinellas from the outer core winds. Those might be only 10 miles offshore right now. We have had the lights flickering here. 120,000 plus are without power around me. Just thankful

Luckily it was last year poon.

[curtadams]

On top of the significant risks at landfall, the NHC is forecasting Helene's remnants will sit on TN/KY for several days. That could create some nasty flooding risks, although the forecasts I'm seeing right now are predicting fairly light rain after Friday.

[Buck]

Kinda nervous here, just northwest of Atlanta. A lot of old, large trees near my house and near my parents’ house. We are getting Opal vibes… we lost a ton of trees then.

[Steve]

Where I can find any data of this buoy near/over the eyewall of Hurricane Helene?
https://imageshack.com/i/pmu3zGeup

National data buoy center

[johngaltfla]

uhhh

that eye wall getting awfully close to my neck of the woods in Hudson/Spring hill

When is it gonna turn more north?

As I said when the ICON nailed this a few days ago (IMHO) I still think he makes landfall closer to the Cedar Key to Steinhatchee area. You're going to get some major storm surge probably north of 15 feet in your area, higher depending on tides and timing.

[zzzh]

Where I can find any data of this buoy near/over the eyewall of Hurricane Helene?
https://imageshack.com/i/pmu3zGeup

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42036
Current pressure is 956.9mb

[fllawyer]

Where I can find any data of this buoy near/over the eyewall of Hurricane Helene?
https://imageshack.com/i/pmu3zGeup

This one is pretty close:

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42036

[ElectricStorm]

5mb drop since the last drop about a hour before

[Janie2006]

On top of the significant risks at landfall, the NHC is forecasting Helene's remnants will sit on TN/KY for several days. That could create some nasty flooding risks, although the forecasts I'm seeing right now are predicting fairly light rain after Friday.

Shades of Camille from 1969, although I’m certainly not saying that it’ll be that catastrophic.

[Teban54]

For reference, this was Idalia last year.

https://i.imgur.com/NRGGrA5.jpeg

And THIS is Helene...

https://i.imgur.com/YM9NXRR.jpeg

This is giving me vibes of Charley vs. Ian visual comparisons that were made just before Ian made landfall, albeit with the size difference being much less extreme. I think there were also graphics of Irene vs. Sandy at some point.

[Frank P]

uhhh

that eye wall getting awfully close to my neck of the woods in Hudson/Spring hill

When is it gonna turn more north?

As I said when the ICON nailed this a few days ago (IMHO) I still think he makes landfall closer to the Cedar Key to Steinhatchee area. You're going to get some major storm surge probably north of 15 feet in your area, higher depending on tides and timing.

Surge does not account for wave action.. add a couple of feet or so on top of the surge for areas near the GOM

[ElectricStorm]

I hope recon isn't having issues that's a long time to be staying in the eye

[HurricaneBelle]

If you look closely you can see Helene is sparing Pinellas from the outer core winds. Those might be only 10 miles offshore right now. We have had the lights flickering here. 120,000 plus are without power around me. Just thankful

Just in the last 10-15 minutes winds have gone from howling to shrieking here in NW Clearwater. For the first time all day I can hear it whistling outside from inside the house, and I stepped outside to 50-60 MPH gusts easily, one came through that might have approached 70.

EDIT: And this is the result of winds now coming from offshore as the center moves past our latitude.

[Michele B]

The eye is tracking east of the NHC projected path again.

Yes it is, hopefully wobbles back or places like Cedar Key are going to be in even more trouble then they already are.

There's no better place than any other. This storm is just catastrophic, no matter who ends up the loser.

[Janie2006]

Traffic webcams on fl511.com are showing quite a bit of surge flowing into Siesta Key.

It's a mess here. And of course some idiots did not evacuate from their hotels, tried to make a run and cars are flooding out in sea water near major intersections. When they say evacuate due to surge, they do it for a reason.

There are always a few ignorant Billy Bada**es who think that they know better than the experts, and each generation of them pays the price. Ignorance is bliss, as the saying goes, and that’s because you’re too ignorant to know the dire danger you and your family are now in.