ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/dominickmatthew/status/1843679036792549688

[drewschmaltz]

If it weren't for party guests and hurricane warnings I'm not sure when I'd clean up inside, and outside. #ADHDinORLANDO

[Kazmit]

The longer it goes east the further south down the west coast Milton is going to hit.

Def looks like some south wobbles. I don’t want to see that.

In the end, all the wobbles add up to the track. Maybe this hits far enough S of TPA to spare a surge bigger than Helene. Maybe. I wouldn't be staying behind in a mando evac zone.

Milton was previously north of the forecast track because of a north wobble. This is just another wobble.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Both 12z HAFS-A and B show Milton briefly re-attaining Category 5 status at around 11pm.

[GCANE]

Getting those radial fingers / gravity waves in the cirrus canopy / CDO

[Zonacane]

Getting those radial fingers / gravity waves in the cirrus canopy / CDO

As well as intense and sustained EEL signatures in the eyewall

[ElectricStorm]

925.0 extrap. No change

[GCANE]

That escalated quickly

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[Zonacane]

By the time the next recon shows up I’d bet Milton is a category 5

[ConvergenceZone]

I know some people keep saying that the track is good news for Tampa, and even if it goes quite a bit south of Tampa, just remember, there are alot of populated areas south of Tampa that would now be in extreme danger if that ends up being the case.

[GCANE]

By the time the next recon shows up I’d bet Milton is a category 5

With that rapid eye heating, I think you are right

[tropicwatch]

Just looked at the steering currents for a storm of this intensity. It is from 1500UTC and it might be why we are seeing an eastward movement.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm6&zoom=&time=

[InfernoFlameCat]

I know some people keep saying that the track is good news for Tampa, and even if it goes quite a bit south of Tampa, just remember, there are alot of populated areas south of Tampa that would now be in extreme danger if that ends up being the case.

I believe it will significantly impact Tampa nonetheless. If a storm is going to hit tampa, this is going to be the one to do it.

[aspen]

925.0 extrap. No change

Holding steady for now, but if the satellite improvement continues, I expect the intensity to start catching up.

[mpic]

I know some people keep saying that the track is good news for Tampa, and even if it goes quite a bit south of Tampa, just remember, there are alot of populated areas south of Tampa that would now be in extreme danger if that ends up being the case.

And I think they should be saying it's better news as opposed to good news. They will still be dealing with it only on a different side.

[lovingseason2013]

That escalated quickly

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

Scary! It is clearing and perfectly circular now

[psyclone]

Milton looks to be getting larger. A big trend today has been the model increase in extreme rain on the north side....very reminiscent of Ian...extreme surge near and south...extreme rain and wind near and north. As of now that north side extreme rain and wind targets tampa bay and up the i-4 corridor and peak surge hazards would reside just south of there.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Looking great on IR again. Making another run for Cat 5 but I doubt we'll see a repeat of yesterday's intensity.

[NDG]

Stronger flight level winds.

URNT15 KNHC 081703
AF309 1414A MILTON HDOB 48 20241008
165500 2227N 08813W 6959 02522 9271 +177 +089 196054 065 064 001 00
165530 2226N 08812W 6962 02546 9311 +163 +089 205078 087 111 004 00
165600 2225N 08811W 6952 02602 9389 +130 +098 211110 129 143 023 00
165630 2224N 08810W 6972 02641 9480 +104 +102 211141 145 142 026 00
165700 2223N 08809W 6966 02700 9541 +097 +078 212143 145 133 052 00
165730 2222N 08808W 6952 02759 9594 +094 +067 214139 144 122 027 00
165800 2222N 08807W 6966 02792 9653 +088 +070 215131 136 120 025 00
165830 2221N 08807W 6965 02831 9692 +092 +060 219122 128 103 012 00
165900 2220N 08806W 6956 02878 9722 +099 +063 220115 119 094 012 00
165930 2219N 08805W 6961 02899 9749 +103 +060 223110 113 087 004 00
170000 2218N 08803W 6960 02925 9765 +112 +063 225105 110 082 005 00

[aspen]

145 kt FL and 143 kt SFMR. Cat 5 again? Or at the very least, 135 kt.