ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

Two video updates.



Link: https://youtube.com/watch?v=NHghSEDiTso



Link: https://youtube.com/watch?v=sBjir_gOaXs

[Blown Away]

Meanwhile as Milton is moving ESE and not ENE...

[Jr0d]

Due to the steering we've heard stronger north. Pretty cool if you think about what we saw in the short term. Storm weakened and it dipped south. Strengthening now and leveling out. May or may not be what's really happened. But, if it is, it goes to show how and why the longer range forecasts are moving north and south. So, if we see a deepening beyond forecast I think the track will start lifting N again. Maybe?

Look at the 200mb forecast models to get a better idea of the steering currents.

While not always true, stronger storms tend to gain latitude faster than shallower ones. As we saw with Milton yesterday and even right now, the storm is dipping a little south as it deepens.

Intensity is tricky as the shear forecast even 24 hours out is difficult.

[Travorum]

Eye temps are almost positive again, a solid CMG ring is present and a large area of CDG is in the north and spreading around in the last few frames. If this is what Milton looks like now I hate to see what will happen later today and tonight over the loop current.

[CronkPSU]

I know everyone's focused on Tampa, but I feel like the secondary large story not getting enough is Ft Myers and Cape Coral after already getting decimated by Ian. With a track anywhere north of Sarasota, FM and CC are going to get destroyed again by surge

or the massive flooding that will occur in central florida...but this happens with every storm, 99% of the focus is on the landfall but just as much destruction happens many miles away

[ElectricStorm]

Anyone know when next recon is? Hopefully we don't have to wait as long as yesterday.

Still think this will get close to what it was yesterday with maybe slightly higher pressure but similar winds

[tropicwatch]

Hopefully AF HH will do one more center pass. Have not seen a VDM from the last one yet.

[technikal]

Its a reminder to some folks here who are quick to comment "its weakening", as well as people in the media, to look at things from a larger perspective, and consider that it can play with people's lives. People are impressionable, dumb, and short sighted. Everyone tries to balance risk vs optimism, but its always just a reminder that the only optimistic way to mitigate risk is to avoid it. If its dangerous now, treat it as if it will be just as dangerous in 48 hours

While I agree everyone should still treat it like the threat it is, the forecasted weakening on models like HAFS-B is significant (like +40mb) and that should be communicated to avoid sensationalism. Yes, it’s one of the most powerful hurricanes ever, but we know with a pretty high degree of confidence that it won’t make landfall at that intensity. It’s in the public interest to (cautiously) let that be known.

I disagree, unless we can agree on what weakening means. Less surge, less wind, less overall impact? The mission statement of the NHC is: To save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic efficiency by issuing the best watches, warnings, forecasts and analyses of hazardous tropical weather, and by increasing understanding of these hazards through global outreach.

How does mentioning the barometric pressure or wind speed of a storm is weakening while the most dangerous part of the storm, the surge, is not fit into that statement. Katrina was weakening. The NHC doesn't report on the whims of every model.

I think the NHC’s discussion and suite of products cover all of the bases of potential threats, including storm surge. The tone of their discussions has consistently been “it will likely weaken before landfall, but still be an extremely dangerous event,” which is the right tone to strike IMO. You still need to issue an accurate forecast. It would be irresponsible to let people believe it’s going to be sub-900 monster at landfall, mainly because it erodes trust in the forecast and makes people more likely to brush off the next serious hurricane threat.

Thankfully NHC has a very, very high degree of public trust because they are more accurate than anyone and they do a great job of balancing strong messaging of risks with responsible forecasting.

[Highteeld]

Correction, we may just jump straight to a T 7.5

[dukeblue219]

Hopefully AF HH will do one more center pass. Have not seen a VDM from the last one yet.

They're climbing back to cruise altitude, presumably done for the flight.

[InfernoFlameCat]

With this rapidly improving Milton, i would pull the trigger and go cat 5 at 2 pm edt. Clearly will be a cat 5 in the next hour.

[kevin]

There are no signs of on EWRC and due to the lack of land interaction and increasing OHC, Milton should be off to the races again. So, unlike yesterday, I'm quite confident that the next recon mission will arrive well before Milton weakens again.

[aspen]

Anyone know when next recon is? Hopefully we don't have to wait as long as yesterday.

Still think this will get close to what it was yesterday with maybe slightly higher pressure but similar winds

I’d be fine with a gap similar to yesterday if that means we get recon perfectly timed with Milton’s passage over the Loop Current later today. We might be in store for another crazy peak and flight.

Praying shear kicks in afterwards and knocks this down at least 2 categories before landfall tomorrow.

[tolakram]

[dukeblue219]

Anyone know when next recon is?

Plans are published on the NHC website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml?

Next center fix around 430pm EDT (TEAL 73).

Since folks having been asking, there's also this note:
DURING THE NOAA 43 MISSION TASKED IN TCPOD 24-128 FOR THE
08/1200Z SYNOPTIC TIME, ONE SMALL UAS IS PLANNED FOR
RELEASE AT IN THE CENTER OF MILTON AT APPROXIMATELY
08/0925Z. IT WILL OPERATE AT OR BELOW 5,000 FT FOR
ABOUT 1 TO 1.5 HOURS.
C. DURING THE NOAA 42 MISSION TASKED ABOVE, ONE SMALL UAS
IS PLANNED FOR RELEASE IN MILTON'S CENTER AT APPROXIMATELY
08/2115Z. IT WILL OPERATE AT OR BELOW 5,000 FT FOR
ABOUT 1 TO 1.5 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

The AF mission is over but we will not have to wait too long as yesterday to have the next one because the new mission will depart around 2:45 PM EDT.

[xironman]

That's quite a comeback. Milton certainly wants to get back to the top echelon of hurricanes yet again, even if not necessarily sub-900.

https://i.postimg.cc/W3W0ssHm/goes16-ir-14-L-202410081452.gif

Milton is getting free of land interaction, and approaching the loop current. The shear increase is still a good 12-18 hrs off. So he should be firing on all engines.

[Highteeld]

Clear T 7.0 right now. They have just cause to set it to 140 knots

[tolakram]

[Steve]

Area of max ionospheric heating underway.

DISCLAIMER:
There is no published, mainstream scientific proof that hurricane intensification is directly related to ionospheric heating.
I am just pointing out the strong correlation for the past three days.

Super interesting imho especially considering time of day.