ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Xyls]

Milton starting to look crazy yet again. This refusal to go north so far is interesting and could have big implications for final landfall which may suggest south of Tampa which would spare it the storm surge. Not totally convinced yet as will have to see the angle of attack once it starts moving north. But steeper approach to Tampa would mean less storm surge for it anyways but potentially more for Sarasota area.

[Canelaw99]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/rspB9wwY/6c378693-0101-49d7-8457-35cdafb3919f.gif [/url]

Meanwhile as Milton is moving ESE and not ENE...

He looks like he wants to grab a mojito in Cuba

[Pasmorade]

1:00 PM CDT Tue Oct 8
Location: 22.5°N 88.2°W
Moving: ENE at 8 mph
Min pressure: 923 mb
Max sustained: 155 mph

[ConvergenceZone]

Hopefully someone can answer this, but does anyone know if stations like the weather channel or fox weather still have live reporting landfall footage even if the storms landfalls in the middle of the night? I have never stayed up to watch on previous storms, so I have no idea, but I mean if the storm comes in around 2:00 AM, will there still be live reporters at those locations? or do they only do that if it landfalls during the day/evening? Thanks.

[Travorum]

Milton starting to look crazy yet again. This refusal to go north so far is interesting and could have big implications for final landfall which may suggest south of Tampa which would spare it the storm surge. Not totally convinced yet as will have to see the angle of attack once it starts moving north. But steeper approach to Tampa would mean less storm surge for it anyways but potentially more for Sarasota area.

tolakram mentioned it over in the models thread but the 06z HAFS-A and both 12z HAFS show this south dip, it doesn't end up having a significant impact on landfall location on those runs.

[Highteeld]

Next recon mission taking off. should be timed well measure this 2ndary peak in intensity

[869MB]

I think if Milton were upgraded to a Category 5 Hurricane again today, it would be the first storm to obtain this feat on two separate occasions in the Gulf of Mexico. I can’t recall another hurricane in the Gulf ever strengthening into a Category 5 on two separate points of time. Just another tidbit to add to Milton’s historical record.

[Xyls]

Milton starting to look crazy yet again. This refusal to go north so far is interesting and could have big implications for final landfall which may suggest south of Tampa which would spare it the storm surge. Not totally convinced yet as will have to see the angle of attack once it starts moving north. But steeper approach to Tampa would mean less storm surge for it anyways but potentially more for Sarasota area.

tolakram mentioned it over in the models thread but the 06z HAFS-A and both 12z HAFS show this south dip, it doesn't end up having a significant impact on landfall location on those runs.

Fair enough but could impact what kind of surge Tampa gets.

[GCANE]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/rspB9wwY/6c378693-0101-49d7-8457-35cdafb3919f.gif [/url]

Meanwhile as Milton is moving ESE and not ENE...

He looks like he wants to grab a mojito in Cuba

With a fine Cohiba cigar

[TheBigO]

Hopefully someone can answer this, but does anyone know if stations like the weather channel or fox weather still have live reporting landfall footage even if the storms landfalls in the middle of the night? I have never stayed up to watch on previous storms, so I have no idea, but I mean if the storm comes in around 2:00 AM, will there still be live reporters at those locations? or do they only do that if it landfalls during the day/evening? Thanks.

Yes, they’ll cover it live as it happens. At least on TWC. You don’t send Cantore out there and not broadcast when something comes on shore. I’m certain basically all the nets will have live broadcasts at some point. Not much else going on early AM TV wise, so worry about preemption isn’t a big deal.

[Travorum]

Next recon mission taking off. should be timed well measure this 2ndary peak in intensity

That's the G-IV doing synoptic measurement, the next fix mission is TEAL73 which will be departing in a little under an hour.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Definitely some impressive sinusoidal wobbles with Milton, common in intensifying storms.

[cheezyWXguy]

Too much focusing on wobbles. The mean motion is still north of east. Yesterday evening Milton was shooting the gap between the Yucatan and the small island to the north. Now it is at the same latitude as the northern tip of that island

[ConvergenceZone]

Hopefully someone can answer this, but does anyone know if stations like the weather channel or fox weather still have live reporting landfall footage even if the storms landfalls in the middle of the night? I have never stayed up to watch on previous storms, so I have no idea, but I mean if the storm comes in around 2:00 AM, will there still be live reporters at those locations? or do they only do that if it landfalls during the day/evening? Thanks.

Yes, they’ll cover it live as it happens. At least on TWC. You don’t send Cantore out there and not broadcast when something comes on shore. I’m certain basically all the nets will have live broadcasts at some point. Not much else going on early AM TV wise, so worry about preemption isn’t a big deal.

awesome thank you! I just didn't want to stay up if they didn't. I appreciate it! This will be the first storm I'll probably pull an all-nighter. Being that I'm almost 59 years old it will probably be a bit harder than it use to be when I was younger lol.

[Travorum]

Eye temp has shot up to +7.5C as it clears out.

[GCANE]

Lightning seems to be intensifying

[Flwxguy86]

By overachieving, Milton has caused complacency. Now people are saying it is "only" a C3. Maybe Milton will come back and bite them in the butt.

I agree, I hope maybe it loses a bit of it's bite because I'll be riding it out in the middle of Pinellas county in Clearwater, If they track stays as it is now, I will go through the Northern eyewall of Milton, Which is exciting but kinda nerve wracking too. I am not worried about the place I will be staying just not looking forward to the damage and possible days or weeks without power. Although I am not sure my primary residence in Oldsmar will see any storm surge or not but I am not going to stay here and find out that hard way. I've been through one other cat 3 in my lifetime and that was Fran in 1996 I believe was the year but that was a long time ago and all I can really remember about that experience was how loud it was, sounded like someone was hammering the side of the house constantly.

Katrina was only a 3 at landfall. A high end Cat 4 a day from landfall will bring a big surge even if it has weakened. See also Ike, just a Cat 2, and big surge.

I know,I don't know how much you know about oldsmar though, it sits in a pretty unique position for this storm where it's almost the case that my current location will get next to none or up to 15 feet and it's all depended on the track. So, I am not staying here and using hope as a tool to justify staying here and just hoping the surge doesn't come. I wish I could just know for sure what the case is going to be but I've already made the decision to leave tomorrow morning unless I see some significant evidence that it's going to be farther south than sarasota but I am not going to know that information till it's already occurring. At least the timeline has been pushed a bit farther so I have the entire day today to watch and get things together.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Starting to see the eye really clearing out. Close to stadium effect again. It's also way more symmetric than it was even a couple of hours ago.

[Steve]

Hopefully someone can answer this, but does anyone know if stations like the weather channel or fox weather still have live reporting landfall footage even if the storms landfalls in the middle of the night? I have never stayed up to watch on previous storms, so I have no idea, but I mean if the storm comes in around 2:00 AM, will there still be live reporters at those locations? or do they only do that if it landfalls during the day/evening? Thanks.

Probably. But there are way better options. Ryan Hall and his team usually feature simultaneous live feeds of multiple chasers cameras and products and go live with chasers as warranted. Also many individual chasers are out there on YouTube and Signal - Josh Morgerman, Vince Waelti, Brandon Copic, Reed Timmer, etc. trust me when I’m telling you those live feeds are immensely better. Second to those are local station feeds. Much much better than TWC and Fox.

We mostly watch Ryan Hall Y’all for the most action, information and alerts from his met team often before tornado warnings are issued. Video crack on YouTube and they’ll go all night tomorrow.

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

There is an interesting tick south in some of the models. I just wonder if this a trend