ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

There seems to be a sudden jump up in the intensity of the ionospheric heating

https://solarham.com/globald.htm

[Chemmers]

eye is rapid clearing out could have a statement effect in a couple of hours

[ScottNAtlanta]

I think it is GO time part 2

[HurricaneAndre2008]

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Oct. 8, 2024
17:54 Z
Map: Google Earth Logo Cesium Logo

10/08 16:53 | 35 | 924mb | 122kts (145kts) | 137kts (143kts)
Raw?
Note: "In. Flt" is max inbound flight level wind. "In. Sfc" is max inbound surface wind, estimated by SFMR or visually. If outbound wind is reported, then highest wind, inbound or outbound from center, is in parenthesis. Winds usually averaged over 10s period. Extrap. MSLPs have (e) next to them. Add missed obs.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 17:48Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF99-5309
Storm Name: Milton
Storm Number & Year: 14 in 2024 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 14
Observation Number: 35

A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 16:53:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22.47N 88.29W
B. Center Fix Location: 129 statute miles (208 km) to the NW (314°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, Mexico.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,453m (8,048ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 924mb (27.29 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 10° at 9kts (From the N at 10mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 137kts (157.7mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 5 nautical miles to the W (274°) of center fix at 16:52:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 13° at 122kts (From the NNE at 140.4mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles to the WNW (284°) of center fix at 16:51:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 143kts (164.6mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 6 nautical miles to the ESE (117°) of center fix at 16:56:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 211° at 145kts (From the SSW at 166.9mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 8 nautical miles to the ESE (120°) of center fix at 16:56:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,055m (10,023ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,041m (9,977ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 6°C (43°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.5 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 145kts (~ 166.9mph) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the ESE (120°) from the flight level center at 16:56:30Z

[zzzh]

Very close to T7.5.

[ConvergenceZone]

Hopefully someone can answer this, but does anyone know if stations like the weather channel or fox weather still have live reporting landfall footage even if the storms landfalls in the middle of the night? I have never stayed up to watch on previous storms, so I have no idea, but I mean if the storm comes in around 2:00 AM, will there still be live reporters at those locations? or do they only do that if it landfalls during the day/evening? Thanks.

Probably. But there are way better options. Ryan Hall and his team usually feature simultaneous live feeds of multiple chasers cameras and products and go live. Also many individual chasers are out there on YouTube and Signal - Josh Morgerman, Vince Waelti, Brandon Copic, Reed Timmer, etc. trust me when I’m telling you those live feeds are immensely better. Second to those are local station feeds. Much much better than TWC and Fox.

Thanks Steve, but I'll probably just stick with the pro mets and those that have more experience when it comes to hurricanes. I love Ryan when it comes to Tornadoes, although many times the signal goes in and out which is frustrating, same with Vince. But I've caught Ryan saying many inaccuracies when it comes to hurricanes due to lack of experience/education. ... Also it has to be something I get on my ROKU TV as I hate watching footage on my PC. Screen is too small. But thanks. I appreciate it though.

[Highteeld]

CDO is expanding rapidly. whatever trouble the northern eyewall was having earlier today is clearly over

[Exalt]

https://i.imgur.com/QOJT16s.png
Very close to T7.5.

Looks like it might become a medium sized buzzsaw, beautiful presentation. Definitely go time.

[Travorum]

 https://x.com/NOAA_HurrHunter/status/1843706785401843941

[Steve]

Hopefully someone can answer this, but does anyone know if stations like the weather channel or fox weather still have live reporting landfall footage even if the storms landfalls in the middle of the night? I have never stayed up to watch on previous storms, so I have no idea, but I mean if the storm comes in around 2:00 AM, will there still be live reporters at those locations? or do they only do that if it landfalls during the day/evening? Thanks.

Probably. But there are way better options. Ryan Hall and his team usually feature simultaneous live feeds of multiple chasers cameras and products and go live. Also many individual chasers are out there on YouTube and Signal - Josh Morgerman, Vince Waelti, Brandon Copic, Reed Timmer, etc. trust me when I’m telling you those live feeds are immensely better. Second to those are local station feeds. Much much better than TWC and Fox.

Thanks Steve, but I'll probably just stick with the pro mets and those that have more experience when it comes to hurricanes. I love Ryan when it comes to Tornadoes, although many times the signal goes in and out which is frustrating, same with Vince. But I've caught Ryan saying many inaccuracies when it comes to hurricanes due to lack of experience/education. ... Also it has to be something I get on my ROKU TV as I hate watching footage on my PC. Screen is too small. But thanks. I appreciate it though.

His live coverage of hurricanes is great so do flip to it from time to time when you come to commercials. Roku has the YouTube application for both Android Rokus and regular ones (I have both), and it’s free.

[NDG]

[TTARider]

am i seeing things or does it look like it's moving due east, or maybe just slightly south of due east?

[ConvergenceZone]

Probably. But there are way better options. Ryan Hall and his team usually feature simultaneous live feeds of multiple chasers cameras and products and go live. Also many individual chasers are out there on YouTube and Signal - Josh Morgerman, Vince Waelti, Brandon Copic, Reed Timmer, etc. trust me when I’m telling you those live feeds are immensely better. Second to those are local station feeds. Much much better than TWC and Fox.

Thanks Steve, but I'll probably just stick with the pro mets and those that have more experience when it comes to hurricanes. I love Ryan when it comes to Tornadoes, although many times the signal goes in and out which is frustrating, same with Vince. But I've caught Ryan saying many inaccuracies when it comes to hurricanes due to lack of experience/education. ... Also it has to be something I get on my ROKU TV as I hate watching footage on my PC. Screen is too small. But thanks. I appreciate it though.

His live coverage of hurricanes is great so do flip to it from time to time when you come to commercials. Roku has the YouTube application for both Android Rokus and regular ones (I have both), and it’s free.

Thanks I'll probably just check out their footage the day after since it's archived on youtube.

[BobHarlem]

Thanks Steve, but I'll probably just stick with the pro mets and those that have more experience when it comes to hurricanes. I love Ryan when it comes to Tornadoes, although many times the signal goes in and out which is frustrating, same with Vince. But I've caught Ryan saying many inaccuracies when it comes to hurricanes due to lack of experience/education. ... Also it has to be something I get on my ROKU TV as I hate watching footage on my PC. Screen is too small. But thanks. I appreciate it though.

His live coverage of hurricanes is great so do flip to it from time to time when you come to commercials. Roku has the YouTube application for both Android Rokus and regular ones (I have both), and it’s free.

Thanks I'll probably just check out their footage the day after since it's archived on youtube.

Mark Sudduth/Hurricanetrack is usually the most interesting as far as cameras go.

[technikal]

am i seeing things or does it look like it's moving due east, or maybe just slightly south of due east?

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/imagery/rbtop-animated.gif

Wobbles.

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

am i seeing things or does it look like it's moving due east, or maybe just slightly south of due east?

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/imagery/rbtop-animated.gif

it did wobble east

every wobble matters down here

[Hugo1989]

I bet we’re going to see 175mph + again by this afternoon! I’m in south Tampa near Ruskin and I have the gut that we will see a High cat 4 at landfall. I’m still concern if my roof will hold those winds Even though I live in a new community.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

An argument could be made that, at least on satellite presentation, Milton has never looked better. I don't think it'll reach the insane intensity it did yesterday, but a mid-range Category 5 is possible and that will have implications on intensity at landfall.

[jasons2k]

Too much focusing on wobbles. The mean motion is still north of east. Yesterday evening Milton was shooting the gap between the Yucatan and the small island to the north. Now it is at the same latitude as the northern tip of that island

Good point to remember.
Also, we are a little spoiled now with hi-res rapid scans. They can be deceiving. A long-loop of scans may look like a lot is happening on that loop, but it may only go back an hour. A wobble over an hour or two is not a change in direction.

[WaveBreaking]

Low-level clouds (yellow) starting to show up in the eye.