ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Bunkertor]

Clear T 7.0 right now. They have just cause to set it to 140 knots

What does T 7.0 mean, please ?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

am i seeing things or does it look like it's moving due east, or maybe just slightly south of due east?

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/imagery/rbtop-animated.gif

it did wobble east

every wobble matters down here

Not really, strong hurricanes tend to follow sinusoidal paths at this intensity. It was going north earlier. Overall trend looks unchanged to me.

[FLpanhandle91]

Milton appears to be undergoing another phase of RI at the moment. Unlike yesterday, next recon should be getting there at a good time. Teal 73 (Air Force WC-130J) will be in the air within half an hour.

[Stormgodess]

Does anyone know what Milton's projected landfill is, as it relates to High Tide?

[jabman98]

I am not sure my primary residence in Oldsmar will see any storm surge or not but I am not going to stay here and find out that hard way.

A friend who lives in Oldsmar left yesterday. He's got his elderly mom and a dog dealing with a health issue to think of and didn't want to take any chances. Seems smart to leave given by the time you know for sure it'll be too late if you need to evac.

[JtSmarts]

Clear T 7.0 right now. They have just cause to set it to 140 knots

What does T 7.0 mean, please ?

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocea ... chart.html

[ConvergenceZone]

His live coverage of hurricanes is great so do flip to it from time to time when you come to commercials. Roku has the YouTube application for both Android Rokus and regular ones (I have both), and it’s free.

Thanks I'll probably just check out their footage the day after since it's archived on youtube.

Mark Sudduth/Hurricanetrack is usually the most interesting as far as cameras go.

Thanks, noted as well. Although I admit, I've always been a Jim Cantore fanboy. Of course he may not end up where Milton goes lol.

[sicktght311]

Clear T 7.0 right now. They have just cause to set it to 140 knots

What does T 7.0 mean, please ?

Its a Dvorak measurement to estimate the intensity of Tropical Cylones based on Satellite and IR presentations. The higher the number goes towards 8, the more intense the Storm. T8.0 is basically the worst of the worst

[zzzh]

AF plane departs in 30mins, should reach the center near 2030Z.

[cheezyWXguy]

Clear T 7.0 right now. They have just cause to set it to 140 knots

What does T 7.0 mean, please ?

Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) evaluates TC intensity on a scale from 1.0 to 8.0, with 8 being perfect. A 7.0 is estimated to be the minimum for a cat5

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I know it's expected to expand massively after a EWRC but anyone else still surprised how compact this storm is? This is good news if it can stay compact for as long as possible. Still expect the wind field and the storm itself to expand as it approaches the coast.

[cheezyWXguy]

Clear T 7.0 right now. They have just cause to set it to 140 knots

What does T 7.0 mean, please ?

Its a Dvorak measurement to estimate the intensity of Tropical Cylones based on Satellite and IR presentations. The higher the number goes towards 8.5, the more intense the number. T8.0+ is basically the worst of the worst

Beat me to it. Can 8.5 be assigned as a a final T value or is it only for raw and adjusted values?

[galaxy401]

am i seeing things or does it look like it's moving due east, or maybe just slightly south of due east?

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/imagery/rbtop-animated.gif

I think I see a northward wobble there in the last frame.

[Chemmers]

Hopefully it won't get any where close to T8.0 because that it haiyan level

[sicktght311]

What does T 7.0 mean, please ?

Its a Dvorak measurement to estimate the intensity of Tropical Cylones based on Satellite and IR presentations. The higher the number goes towards 8.5, the more intense the number. T8.0+ is basically the worst of the worst

Beat me to it. Can 8.5 be assigned as a a final T value or is it only for raw and adjusted values?

I adjusted my original post down to T8.0 because i believe 8.5 is only used by NOAA for adjusted values

[Steve]

Thanks I'll probably just check out their footage the day after since it's archived on youtube.

Mark Sudduth/Hurricanetrack is usually the most interesting as far as cameras go.

Thanks, noted as well. Although I admit, I've always been a Jim Cantore fanboy. Of course he may not end up where Milton goes lol.

It’s a whole different world than Cantore. Mark will seek out eyewalls and the like for the most action there is. Just an FYI

[galaxy401]

When I woke up just a few hours ago, I thought Milton didn't look that healthy. Quite the drastic turnaround.

[Highteeld]

Looks like some Rossby Vortex Waves within the eyewall. SFC winds have to be very high in those, would bet this is well into cat 5 at this point.

[TomballEd]

I agree, I hope maybe it loses a bit of it's bite because I'll be riding it out in the middle of Pinellas county in Clearwater, If they track stays as it is now, I will go through the Northern eyewall of Milton, Which is exciting but kinda nerve wracking too. I am not worried about the place I will be staying just not looking forward to the damage and possible days or weeks without power. Although I am not sure my primary residence in Oldsmar will see any storm surge or not but I am not going to stay here and find out that hard way. I've been through one other cat 3 in my lifetime and that was Fran in 1996 I believe was the year but that was a long time ago and all I can really remember about that experience was how loud it was, sounded like someone was hammering the side of the house constantly.

Katrina was only a 3 at landfall. A high end Cat 4 a day from landfall will bring a big surge even if it has weakened. See also Ike, just a Cat 2, and big surge.

I know,I don't know how much you know about oldsmar though, it sits in a pretty unique position for this storm where it's almost the case that my current location will get next to none or up to 15 feet and it's all depended on the track. So, I am not staying here and using hope as a tool to justify staying here and just hoping the surge doesn't come. I wish I could just know for sure what the case is going to be but I've already made the decision to leave tomorrow morning unless I see some significant evidence that it's going to be farther south than sarasota but I am not going to know that information till it's already occurring. At least the timeline has been pushed a bit farther so I have the entire day today to watch and get things together.

Did you read my comments about the Katrina surge and take it as me telling you not to worry about surge? Because I don't know anybody who thought the Katrina surge was NBD.

If you think I was telling you to ignore evacuation orders, you read that quite incorrectly. Go now, you have less than a day before the weather gets bad.

[underthwx]

Looks like some Rossby Vortex Waves within the eyewall. SFC winds have to be very high in those, would bet this is well into cat 5 at this point.

If I may ask....what is a Rossby vortex wave?....thankyou!