ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TomballEd]

I'm assuming the warming of cloud tops is related to the diurnal minimum, but any organization would seem likely to pause for a while.

[869MB]

Long time lurker here, Is it possible beryl still moves east up the coast at landfall or is that pretty much a done deal with Matagorda area? Would/could strength play a factor still on a landfall point? Is the weakness in place and ready? Just curious. TIA

Legit question. Personally think it’s the bay or north/east of there but we will see soon.

There still remains an unusual amount of spread in the ECMWF ensembles for this lead time (partly attributable to the orientation of the coast line):
https://i.imgur.com/XkFt9Qv.png

Well one positive trend on the latest ECMWF ensembles is that we don’t see any members depicting a major hurricane strike along the Texas coast now.

[JKG43]

Did anybody else get the storm surge message on their phones just now or is it just headed straight for my backyard?

In your profile, add your location so that the forum will know exactly where ‘your backyard’ is located. I’ve noticed a lot of members reference their local weather and/or local weather history but they don’t have their respective location included within their profile in order for the forum to see.

Im in Sweeny Texas...I haven't got any messages...I think we are under a TS Warning here?...but im not far from Matagorda...so I dunno if there's really a difference in conditions possible here...Nicholas landfalled at Sargent...it was thunder and blitzen here for sure...I have fam in Sargent...I think they have voluntary evacuations goin on there..I am guessing you are on the shore?...I do they broadcast surge warnings in inland towns and such?...I dunno...

Thanks for the tip. I'm sorry for the lapse. I've been a lurker for a decade and have never posted. I'm in Baytown, Texas somewhat close to the bay and definitely close to some problematic creeks, but we've never flooded here. Everyone be safe.

[GalvestonDuck]

In your profile, add your location so that the forum will know exactly where ‘your backyard’ is located. I’ve noticed a lot of members reference their local weather and/or local weather history but they don’t have their respective location included within their profile in order for the forum to see.

Im in Sweeny Texas...I haven't got any messages...I think we are under a TS Warning here?...but im not far from Matagorda...so I dunno if there's really a difference in conditions possible here...Nicholas landfalled at Sargent...it was thunder and blitzen here for sure...I have fam in Sargent...I think they have voluntary evacuations goin on there..I am guessing you are on the shore?...I do they broadcast surge warnings in inland towns and such?...I dunno...

Thanks for the tip. I'm sorry for the lapse. I've been a lurker for a decade and have never posted. I'm in Baytown, Texas somewhat close to the bay and definitely close to some problematic creeks, but we've never flooded here. Everyone be safe.

Same here in a way. I’ve been a lurker off and on for about a decade since sometime after Ike. Used to be very active and a mod.

Good to see you! Stay safe!

[Kludge]

Well this one establishing a totally new quandary for me...

Do I get my generator fueled--up and ready... or my lawn sprinkler?

[USTropics]

What is the significance of the convection firing off to the NE of the Center?

This is still a sign that we have some dry air entrainment occurring and wrapping around towards the northern quadrant (highlighted in orange here):


Essentially what happens here is we have a differential in heating (i.e., dry air can lead to differential heating within the cloud mass). This differential heating can set up convective instabilities, where warmer, moist air rises more vigorously due to the presence of cooler, drier air nearby. This process can further enhance the vertical rise of convection as we see here to the NE.

[davidiowx]

Well this one establishing a totally new quandary for me...

Do I get my generator fueled--up and ready... or my lawn sprinkler?

It’s never a bad idea to run the generator once/twice a year even if you don’t need it. If you’re not draining the fuel, make sure to put stabilizer in it!

[underthwx]

I stepped out back with my dogs...the clouds look frozen...its weird....no wind....no birds do I see or hear...the clouds don't look like they are moving...its weird to me...i don't think it's connected to the cyclone...isn't there like a weak front in the region? ....I seem to recall reading about Seabreeze convection earlier...and ut got dark and windy briefly...followed by this lull...

[tolakram]

VDM just came in and uh oh. Already has a Eyewall thats only open NW. link removed

That is fake - OR possible a corrected transmission. It seems to have been real, then changed.

259
URNT12 KWBC 070009
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022024
A. 06/23:34:30Z
B. 24.42 deg N 093.58 deg W
C. NA
D. 996 mb
E. 040 deg 26 kt
F. NA
G. NA
H. NA
I. NA
J. 200 deg 35 kt
K. 133 deg 41 nm 23:24:39Z
L. NA
M. NA
N. 077 deg 57 kt
O. 330 deg 50 nm 23:46:14Z
P. 20 C / 2446 m
Q. 20 C / 2435 m
R. 17 C / NA
S. 134 / NA
T. 0.01 / 2 nm
U. NOAA2 2602A BERYL OB 08
MAX FL WIND 57 KT 330 / 50 NM 23:46:14Z
MAX FL TEMP 23 C 138 / 16 NM FROM FL CNTR

[tolakram]

Just had to remove an old or faked VDM. DO NOT POST IMAGES OF TEXT PRODUCTS please, there's no reason and it's probably altered or old. Thanks.

Edit: This ended up being real, I apologized to the original poster.

[TomballEd]

992 mb on NOAA plane. That is an extrapolated pressure from flight level.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

That's real though. It's from the Air Force.

URNT12 KNHC 070002
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022024
A. 06/23:33:40Z
B. 24.43 deg N 093.68 deg W
C. 700 mb 3056 m
D. 996 mb
E. 020 deg 27 kt
F. OPEN NW
G. C16
H. 50 kt
I. 307 deg 25 nm 23:26:00Z
J. 074 deg 55 kt
K. 308 deg 31 nm 23:24:00Z
L. 35 kt
M. 090 deg 0 nm 23:33:30Z
N. 243 deg 50 kt
O. 104 deg 13 nm 23:37:30Z
P. 8 C / 3036 m
Q. 14 C / 3038 m
R. 9 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 0.5 nm
U. AF301 2702A BERYL OB 04
MAX FL WIND 55 KT 308 / 31 NM 23:24:00Z

It's real:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/recon/ ... 070002.txt

[tolakram]

That's real though. It's from the Air Force.

URNT12 KNHC 070002
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022024
A. 06/23:33:40Z
B. 24.43 deg N 093.68 deg W
C. 700 mb 3056 m
D. 996 mb
E. 020 deg 27 kt
F. OPEN NW
G. C16
H. 50 kt
I. 307 deg 25 nm 23:26:00Z
J. 074 deg 55 kt
K. 308 deg 31 nm 23:24:00Z
L. 35 kt
M. 090 deg 0 nm 23:33:30Z
N. 243 deg 50 kt
O. 104 deg 13 nm 23:37:30Z
P. 8 C / 3036 m
Q. 14 C / 3038 m
R. 9 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 0.5 nm
U. AF301 2702A BERYL OB 04
MAX FL WIND 55 KT 308 / 31 NM 23:24:00Z

I'll look for it in the NHC archive to be sure:
https://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/reco ... 50%2850%29

Corrected maybe? That's why I said old as well, just in case it was a mistake transmission and corrected.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

There's two planes out there right now.

The other one was from NOAA:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/recon/ ... 070009.txt

[tolakram]

There's two planes out there right now.

The other one was from NOAA:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/recon/ ... 070009.txt

Ugh.

So there's a 3/4 eyewall in here?

[Chris_in_Tampa]

I don't know how NOAA does things. This is a tail doppler radar mission. I don't know if they perhaps fill in all the information always. Although looking back at other missions from them for this storm they did fill it in when it was strong.

Also, in case no one knows about this link it has interesting data. I just came across it recently. Kind of hard to work with and I don't understand how a lot of it works.

https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... ataNew.php

[tolakram]

I don't know how NOAA does things. This is a tail doppler radar mission. I don't know if they perhaps fill in all the information always. Although looking back at other missions from them for this storm they did fill it in when it was strong.

Also, in case no one knows about this link it has interesting data. I just came across it recently. Kind of hard to work with and I don't understand how a lot of it works.

https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... ataNew.php

But the AF plane reported the eyewall. Here's there VDM from the archive, which is apparently real unless corrected at some point.

C16 = circular 16 mile wide eye, open NW.

853
URNT12 KNHC 070002
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022024
A. 06/23:33:40Z
B. 24.43 deg N 093.68 deg W
C. 700 mb 3056 m
D. 996 mb
E. 020 deg 27 kt
F. OPEN NW
G. C16
H. 50 kt
I. 307 deg 25 nm 23:26:00Z
J. 074 deg 55 kt
K. 308 deg 31 nm 23:24:00Z
L. 35 kt
M. 090 deg 0 nm 23:33:30Z
N. 243 deg 50 kt
O. 104 deg 13 nm 23:37:30Z
P. 8 C / 3036 m
Q. 14 C / 3038 m
R. 9 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 0.5 nm
U. AF301 2702A BERYL OB 04
MAX FL WIND 55 KT 308 / 31 NM 23:24:00Z
;

[Chris_in_Tampa]

It's not exactly the quadrant I would expect to be open. Or from looking at the satellite to be quite that organized yet.

It's still not quite there on radar to see it:
https://mrms.nssl.noaa.gov/qvs/product_ ... _active=on

Then again, the last vortex message from the Air Force for the previous mission said:

40 PERCENT EYEWALL WITH SVR TURB WEST
WINDS CONSIDERABLY MORE ORGANIZED

I would have though winds would have come up a bit by now if it were as organized as recon says. But pressure is dropping some.

[ScottNAtlanta]

The dry air looks to be starting to decrease on the east side. It will take a good 3 or 4 hours before it mixes out.

[Kazmit]

Looks terrible this evening. It's been hours since any new convection.