ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[kevin]

It looks like the latest convective burst is slowly trying to get rid of the dry slot.

[Deshaunrob17]

I feel like I've been hearing and waiting on rapid intensification since Debby in the Gulf Mexico lol…. Probably only going to see steady intensification with Ernesto, especially as it gets further north.

[aspen]

Ernesto’s structure this morning, with a small core within a much larger band, is sort of similar to those HWRF runs from a few days ago.

[kevin]

Recon seems to be having some communication issues, no data for almost 30 minutes now. Meanwhile, Ernesto is looking better by the minute.

[kevin]

Recon data is back. First pass is underway and the plane found an extrapolated pressure of 972.7 mb at the center with 15 kt SFMR. Supports an intensity of 971 - 972 mb, which is similar to the expected intensity at this point from the hurricane models (HWRF 975, HMON 973, HAFS-A 970, HAFS-B 964).

[kevin]

Still very weak winds during this pass though. Only 60 kt SFMR and 56 kt FL.

[FrontRunner]

I know they only made one pass so far, but it's interesting how low the winds are relative to the pressure. At the very least it's not a well organized wind field.

[kevin]

There are higher FL winds now in the last recon update (73 kt FL), but way farther removed from the center than one would expect for an intensifying hurricane.

[aspen]

With this structure, significant intensification becomes even less likely. We might get an Earl ‘22 repeat with a broad, structurally messy Cat 2 with quite a low pressure for its wind speed.

[WaveBreaking]

Pretty interesting looking cloud feature NW of Ernesto’s CDO where it looks like part of the banding feature has slightly sunken.



The feature shows up even better on IR. I’ve seen this before on other TCs, and I think the CIMSS Satellite Blog calls this a “cloud cliff”. Pretty cool.

[TallyTracker]

It looks like the dry air is encouraging an expansion of the wind field at the expense of intensification wind-wise. The pressure may get much lower but winds only go up slightly. Cat 3 is gonna be hard to attain with this structure though not impossible.

[cheezyWXguy]

Have to admit, this isn’t the structure I pictured when I said that the structure would change significantly from yesterday morning. Recon still showing the highest winds in that outer circular band, I guess this is going to be some exaggerated erc where the inner core just drops away?

[WaveBreaking]

Partial microwave pass shows a pretty weak inner core surrounded by a much stronger band to the N. Eyewall wasn’t captured well by the pass so it may be stronger. Regardless, this seems like a setup for an EWRC later today or tomorrow.

[kevin]

Latest IR is looking really nice. If I didn't know better, I'd say Ernesto is coming together. But I've said that half a dozen times already and it's still a mess so who knows at this point.

[Ubuntwo]

Partial microwave pass shows a pretty weak inner core surrounded by a much stronger band to the N. Eyewall wasn’t captured well by the pass so it may be stronger. Regardless, this seems like a setup for an EWRC later today or tomorrow.

https://i.imgur.com/KLpQlz0.jpeg

Is it still an ERC is there is no longer an eyewall? Normally forming these huge eyewalls can be very messy, but the weakness of the inner core may actually play out in its favor.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

The first outer bands starting to appear on Bermuda's long-range radar: https://www.weather.bm/tools/graphics.a ... 0PPI&user=

[kevin]

Ernesto may be a mess of a storm, but it is a beautiful mess. If that outer core/band actually takes over we may be looking at a very very large eye.

[kevin]

Finally some respectable hurricane winds measured by recon, 87 kt FL is good enough to support the current 75 kt strength. And of course almost 100 km from the center .

[MarioProtVI]

Finally some respectable hurricane winds measured by recon, 87 kt FL is good enough to support the current 75 kt strength. And of course almost 100 km from the center .

Actually could support 80 kt if NHC goes the “SFMR is undersampling” route they did with Earl.

[Sciencerocks]