ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Noles2016]

I’d say landfall is looking like Econfina River State Park. There is a road down to the coast there with a few houses and an RV park. The eye should pass west of Perry.

I am in your neck of the woods. We left Sopchoppy, staying in a hotel on App pkwy and Blairstone. So far so good here, starting to pick up a bit now.

Let us know how it fares. My office is just behind that hotel on Old St Augustine!

[zzzh]

139kt FL at 750mb

[Travorum]

And 940.2 extrap on the Air Force Pass

AF306 1809A HELENE HDOB 12 20240927
002400 2915N 08348W 6972 02856 9735 +086 +057 141108 109 074 048 00
002430 2914N 08350W 6964 02850 9711 +090 +056 136114 119 075 051 00
002500 2913N 08351W 6973 02817 9685 +095 +057 137120 123 086 055 00
002530 2912N 08352W 6949 02831 9662 +101 +060 143115 123 085 063 00
002600 2911N 08353W 6976 02780 9637 +108 +063 143111 116 088 060 00
002630 2910N 08354W 6967 02773 9611 +110 +067 139109 112 099 050 00
002700 2909N 08355W 6960 02751 9580 +108 +071 144110 116 101 048 00
002730 2908N 08357W 6973 02716 9550 +115 +075 147107 112 101 044 00
002800 2907N 08358W 6984 02682 9513 +130 +079 150085 103 095 026 00
002830 2906N 08359W 6961 02695 9472 +153 +083 140066 076 091 015 00
002900 2905N 08400W 6963 02678 9437 +176 +088 139054 064 090 008 00
002930 2903N 08402W 6963 02674 9412 +198 +096 150038 046 078 005 00
003000 2902N 08403W 6974 02662 9409 +199 +108 150027 033 050 004 00
003030 2901N 08405W 6961 02677 9412 +191 +118 144019 024 023 003 00
003100 2900N 08407W 6971 02661 9416 +187 +125 146017 019 018 003 00
003130 2859N 08408W 6978 02653 9419 +181 +127 163008 014 018 002 03
003200 2859N 08410W 6988 02635 9419 +181 +130 172004 008 020 001 03
003230 2859N 08412W 6976 02650 9408 +191 +134 261005 009 028 001 03
003300 2857N 08414W 6968 02663 9402 +197 +137 268015 016 024 003 03
003330 2856N 08413W 6975 02655 9406 +193 +140 276022 026 026 003 00
$$

[Beef Stew]

That should be enough for a bump to 120 kts/140 mph at a minimum.

[zzzh]

003530 2848N 08413W 6971 02689 9403 +230 +140 300073 076 038 000 03

[gatorcane]

180,000 customers without power in Pinellas County and that number is going up pretty fast.

[psyclone]

Frenchy's live cam shows surge on clearwater beach. The pier looks to be under assault too

[Steve]

I’d say landfall is looking like Econfina River State Park. There is a road down to the coast there with a few houses and an RV park. The eye should pass west of Perry.

You got out right?

Yep! I’m holed up near Mobile, AL. Didn’t want to take any chances. As glad as I am the track is trending east, the NW winds worry me as that is the only direction a tree could easily fall on my house. I’m hoping the winds are weaker once it shifts to that direction.

Yeah. It’s all about the trees in Tallahassee. Glad yall are safe. I’m assuming it’s pretty gusty in Mobile since y’all are 150 miles closer than I am. I’m driving back home to Pensacola in the am but I figure a gusty day W or SW winds and a beautiful weekend. It was a great sunny low to mid 80’s day here. Looks like a glorious weekend though for the coast while points north are going to have their hands full. I’m very curious to watch the merger of the lows and see what happens through the middle of next week because like we said a couple pages ago I haven’t seen this setup before

[Hurricane2022]

Helene is clearly much more violent than Idalia was last year. Expect landfall intensity to be around 130 kt/935.

[Michele B]

Why does it feel like these storms ALWAYS come ashore when it's dark? The reason I say that is that every time I end up staying up all night to watch (and often regretting it). At least this time it won't be like 2am.

Yea, I'm in California, so I'm lucking out as it will still be early here when it comes ashore. But yea plenty of other storms I missed out on due to their landfalling time. I'm addicted to watching live footage. I haven't seen Cantore yet on the weather channel. Not sure he will make an appearance tonight.

Yes, Cantore has been live just now (maybe 8:40 PM).

[CrazyC83]

I would go with 120 kt and 939 mb on the next update personally given all the data.

[Hurricane Mike]

Video Update on Helene
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MtsiAccHu3I

[LandoWill]

Well it's been fun. So the gfs says another next Sunday in tampa this time? lol don't hold your breath on that

[NDG]

Crazy, Helene continues to strengthen. 139 knot flight level winds.

003530 2910N 08350W 7294 02362 9551 +159 +199 150132 139 /// /// 05

[Nimbus]

180,000 customers without power in Pinellas County and that number is going up pretty fast.

The rain squalls have diminished for Pinellas county so maybe those that still have power will keep it?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Eye tightening up; making one last intensification push.

[Category5Kaiju]

Helene is clearly much more violent than Idalia was last year. Expect landfall intensity to be around 130 kt/935.

Helene's basically the bigger, badder sister of Idalia.

[Pelicane]

Ian bottomed out at 937 mb so this is getting close to matching that. Puts in perspective how crazy Ian was that it was a Cat 5 at that high of pressure.

[FLpanhandle91]

That northern eyewall is nasty. Looks like she's gonna strengthen right through landfall. Could be flirting with mid 930s and 130kt at landfall.

[galaxy401]

140 mph now.

Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
900 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...HELENE SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS ITS EYE APPROACHES THE COAST OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND...
...900 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

A University of Florida Coastal Monitoring Program tower located on
Cedar Key recently reported a sustained wind of 55 mph (89 km/h) and
a wind gust of 73 mph (117 km/h).

A NOAA National Ocean Service tide gauge located at Clearwater Beach
recently reported a water level of 5.07 feet above mean higher high
water, which is an approximation of inundation in that area.

SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 84.2W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM W OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...225 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Sardi