ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cheezyWXguy]

Dudes its 918 mb and winds of 165 mph.. per NHC

Plane hasn’t made a center pass yet. That’s an estimate in the absence of data

[Travorum]

AF303 1614A MILTON HDOB 13 20241008
205230 2301N 08805W 6950 03045 //// +089 //// 017041 043 044 007 01
205300 2300N 08803W 6946 03047 //// +082 //// 018042 043 047 014 01
205330 2259N 08801W 6955 03027 //// +081 //// 020045 048 049 013 01
205400 2258N 08800W 6946 03038 //// +086 //// 022048 050 049 011 01
205430 2257N 08758W 6953 03023 //// +087 //// 029048 050 050 007 01
205500 2256N 08756W 6937 03037 //// +090 //// 020047 048 053 008 01
205530 2255N 08755W 6952 03014 9851 +103 //// 017047 049 053 005 01
205600 2254N 08753W 6943 03017 9843 +105 //// 024048 050 055 004 01
205630 2254N 08751W 6952 03001 9849 +095 //// 021050 052 056 004 01
205700 2253N 08749W 6942 03004 9833 +102 //// 021055 056 056 002 01
205730 2252N 08748W 6946 02988 9820 +105 //// 021057 059 060 002 01
205800 2251N 08746W 6943 02981 9805 +103 //// 023062 063 064 002 01
205830 2250N 08744W 6943 02965 9797 +095 //// 020068 072 067 003 01
205900 2249N 08742W 6955 02932 //// +093 //// 023075 078 071 004 01
205930 2248N 08741W 6929 02939 //// +095 //// 027081 084 079 006 01
210000 2247N 08739W 6947 02886 //// +098 //// 027093 095 089 006 01
210030 2246N 08738W 6954 02840 //// +113 //// 022096 097 099 008 01
210100 2245N 08736W 6944 02792 9570 +115 //// 019107 112 114 019 01
210130 2244N 08735W 6988 02660 //// +108 //// 010128 136 138 068 01
210200 2243N 08733W 6902 02630 //// +105 //// 357128 137 177 027 05

extrap pressure on the fritz but 177kt SFMR 137kt FL

[Flwxguy86]

NHC doesn't look like they changed very much, except now it would be just off the coast of Pinellas and Sarasota at 1am Thursday instead of 7pm on Wednesday.

[Nimbus]

So this is a NOAA bird up real high? Sensor suite? Dropsondes? Forgive me if I haven't done my homework, as I am more familiar with the Teal birds outta Keesler.

Gums sends...

You are referring to NOAA2 Mission #17 into MILTON?

[Poonwalker]

 https://x.com/MikeD2061383/status/1843753114555560064

this is pretty crazy to see parroted all over the internet right now.. HAFS-A had this exact track.. when its at the corner of 23 north and 87 it will be exactly where it was supposed to be.

Its like the people I disagree with have converged to wish it away from Tampa or something (understandable but dangerous game to play)

Yeah. People think the NHC path is exactly where these things should go otherwise the forecast points ahead are meaningless. Hafs has had this thing nailed so far. Iam biased to go with the major models of Hafs, GFS, Hmon, and GFS. That’s just me.

[birddogsc]

This is 5PM advisory track from yesterday (Monday) overlayed with the positions given in the advisories since. Advisory locations are the red boxes and the 5pm track is the dotted line.

[jlauderdal]

LIVE WOBBLE TRACKER: Hurricane Milton’s wobbles off path, could have huge impacts

https://www.wfla.com/weather/tracking-t ... pacts/amp/

We arent supposed to key on wobbles, media puts up a wobble tracker.

We arent supposed to walk in flood waters, media walks in flood waters when they dont need to for the story.

We arent supposed to drive around in a hurricane, media drives around.

The wobble tracker is effective with keeping the public informed, the most important track is the one the hurricane is taking.

[aspen]

Just our luck that the barometer isn’t working right lol.

[Travorum]

Blend would support 150kts but I'm not sure I trust a SFMR reading 40kts above FL winds.

[gailwarning]

This round of intensification isn't surprising. And not to knock the NHC, because they have done an absolutely phenomenal job with both messaging and especially doing an incredible job on track (so far), but I am surprised they backed off showing the system re-obtaining Category 5 status and just staying 130 knots for the next 12 hours. This was not supported much by the environment and has downstream implications on landfall intensity.

They’re doing a great job overall, but a week ago, the NHC didn’t expect this to become a major storm. So "absolutely phenomenal job" feels a bit much, especially now that we’re dealing with a near-record-setting Category 5 hurricane.

I didn't include intensity, that is always a weak point for them (by their own admission). But they have done a great job on track when the models have been all over the place, and messaging the seriousness of this situation to the media and local officials. I am just surprised they didn't seem to recognize that the environment was 100% capable of allowing Milton to reobtain Cat 5 status.

I think we're in a whole new ball game with storms as water temperatures continue to rise. At the very least, a greater number of storms are approaching the limit on what was thought possible. It's going to take a while for a new reality to be noted, quantified, accepted, and then factored into the equation.

[Charleswachal]

Just our luck that the barometer isn’t working right lol.

hopefully we get a dropsound reading

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Just doing some math here, that pressure could be as low as 906mb based on that data.

[Gums]

Negative, Nimbus..two NOAa birds on FltRdr, one at 45,000 and an Orion at 15K. The Teal birds usually come in like the Orion or lower.

[wxman57]

Anything happen today? Been busy with advisories past 11 hrs. Looking like Tampa Bay may be spared a direct hit. Guidance is shifting south. Storm is tracking right of the forecast, as is always the case in these situations. I feel relieved for Tampa, as the city would have been destroyed. However, I feel bad for the residents farther south.

[TomballEd]

Just our luck that the barometer isn’t working right lol.

Sondes should work. Waiting on a center drop.

[FLpanhandle91]

Let's wait for the SE pass. NW is the left rear quad right now.

[bob rulz]

One of the most picture perfect presentations I've seen in my time tracking hurricanes (since 2004). Only other storms I can think of that looked this good were Wilma and Irma.

[Meteorcane]

Just our luck that the barometer isn’t working right lol.

hopefully we get a dropsound reading

They will 100% do a drop, so I wouldn't fret about the extrapolated readings being inconsistent.

[Zonacane]

Milton has definitely intensified, significant jump in wind speed in the NW eyewall

[Bocadude85]

Man the surge into Charlotte Harbor and Ft.Myers beach is going to be bad with the new NHC track. Hopefully everyone got out!!