ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[kevin]

The ferocity of the outer eyewall on a IR or VIS loop is impressive. It's almost looks like it's attacking the 'core'. Not so much an EWRC since I'm not sure an organized inner core even exists. I have no clue how those anomalously large eyes form, but does anyone think a (less extreme) case of typhoon Winnie is possible where the inner core just collapses and we're left with a very large eye?

[cheezyWXguy]

Partial microwave pass shows a pretty weak inner core surrounded by a much stronger band to the N. Eyewall wasn’t captured well by the pass so it may be stronger. Regardless, this seems like a setup for an EWRC later today or tomorrow.

https://i.imgur.com/KLpQlz0.jpeg

To be honest, I don’t think that depiction of the inner eyewall is inaccurate. It looks like Ernesto has been undergoing an erc for a while now and the outer eyewall is rapidly contracting while taking over. Still has a lot of work to do though

[aspen]

That outer eyewall is getting a lot more pronounced on visible imagery. I think we should see it solidify and clear before shear picks up in 18-36 hours (the exact timeframe still varies between models).

[WeatherBoy2000]

Ernesto's core is a disorganized mess, I won't be surprised if the NHC rolls back their prediction of a major hurricane very soon at this rate.

[Travorum]

Partial microwave pass shows a pretty weak inner core surrounded by a much stronger band to the N. Eyewall wasn’t captured well by the pass so it may be stronger. Regardless, this seems like a setup for an EWRC later today or tomorrow.

https://i.imgur.com/KLpQlz0.jpeg

To be honest, I don’t think that depiction of the inner eyewall is inaccurate. It looks like Ernesto has been undergoing an erc for a while now and the outer eyewall is rapidly contracting while taking over. Still has a lot of work to do though

Here's the full picture, it looks like the dry air that was entrained disrupted the western/southwestern eyewall (which as of last night hadn't fully developed) and the outer band is taking over.

[HurricaneBelle]

To be honest, I don’t think that depiction of the inner eyewall is inaccurate. It looks like Ernesto has been undergoing an erc for a while now and the outer eyewall is rapidly contracting while taking over. Still has a lot of work to do though

To have an EWRC you have to have an eyewall in the first place.

[cheezyWXguy]

To be honest, I don’t think that depiction of the inner eyewall is inaccurate. It looks like Ernesto has been undergoing an erc for a while now and the outer eyewall is rapidly contracting while taking over. Still has a lot of work to do though

To have an EWRC you have to have an eyewall in the first place.

We did, it existed since at least yesterday morning.

[Teban54]

The outer eyewall is getting more pronounced minute by minute and almost wrapping around. Dry air doesn't seem to be a big issue this morning, so if this continues, Ernesto will likely have time for further intensification once the EWRC is complete.

[aspen]

Ernesto's core is a disorganized mess, I won't be surprised if the NHC rolls back their prediction of a major hurricane very soon at this rate.

Yep, they dropped it to 95 kt for the 11am advisory.

[kevin]

I can't upload images rn, but go look at Ernesto on IR or VIS. It's so cool, looks like a curled up shrimp. Not a lot of meteorological value in this post, but just wanted to share .

[ElectricStorm]

Latest recon pass supports around 75kts/974mb although once again the strongest winds are well removed from the center.

[USTropics]

I can't upload images rn, but go look at Ernesto on IR or VIS. It's so cool, looks like a curled up shrimp. Not a lot of meteorological value in this post, but just wanted to share .

Here are some custom extents with images starting from this morning:

[Nimbus]

974 mb is pretty low and the structure is becoming more symmetrical so will probably continue to deepen.
Trough isn't reaching the outflow yet and Bermuda is still too close to the track for this.

[Sciencerocks]

[cheezyWXguy]

Those large outer bands are starting to weaken, this may be an effort to consolidate energy closer to the center which would help it strengthen

[Kazmit]

Not strengthening very quickly but it has a large area of hurricane force winds to the east. Bermuda will have a decent stretch of 65kt+ winds. Luckily it shouldn’t be too bad as we are no stranger to direct cat 1-2 impacts- seems to occur every couple of years.

[cycloneye]

Perfect ASCAT pass. Wow.

[LarryWx]

Not strengthening very quickly but it has a large area of hurricane force winds to the east. Bermuda will have a decent stretch of 65kt+ winds. Luckily it shouldn’t be too bad as we are no stranger to direct cat 1-2 impacts- seems to occur every couple of years.

One thing that ACE and SS scale don’t reflect on well is diameter of strong winds/size of storm.

[Travorum]

EWRC is well underway, the western tower rotating around on IR might be close to closing the outer eyewall off by now.

[Kazmit]

Not strengthening very quickly but it has a large area of hurricane force winds to the east. Bermuda will have a decent stretch of 65kt+ winds. Luckily it shouldn’t be too bad as we are no stranger to direct cat 1-2 impacts- seems to occur every couple of years.

One thing that ACE and SS scale don’t reflect on well is diameter of strong winds/size of storm.

Someone should develop a system like ACE using pressure instead of wind speed as a metric.