ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[xironman]

The AF plane had a double maxima as well, so the EWRC is happening

[Mike33534]

[Rail Dawg]

A well-developed hurricane going into hot bathtub water should be an indication that said hurricane is going to ramp up again.

They nail track not intensity.

Get outside young budding met types at and observe the weather. Every day. It ain't just what the computer tells you.

As told in many posts the panic and 200-mile lines of cars won't start until 24 hours prior.

Then it gets real. Very real.

Chased to the core 16 named hurricanes up close and personal. Inner eyewall of Cat 5 Michael. Many here remember the posts.

Plan on Cat 5 said that days ago that water is hot.

Chuck

[eastcoastFL]

https://i.ibb.co/G94f1kQ/goes16-ir-14-L.gif Movement as predicted?

He seems to be picking up speed.

[Shawee]

Don't look at the GFS model for 10/21, a copy cat major to New Orleans!

GFS had what is now Milton going into New Orleans this far out. There is another thread for long term predictions.

[drewschmaltz]

It seems like a new EWRC wasn't as obviously forecasted as the previous one. In my opinion, an EWRC tonight can really lead to a variety of different outcomes. Im getting fatigue. I'm ready to get this over with. Can it be Thursday morning already?

[xironman]

A well-developed hurricane going into hot bathtub water should be an indication that said hurricane is going to ramp up again.

They nail track not intensity.

Get outside young budding met types at and observe the weather. Every day. It ain't just what the computer tells you.

As told in many posts the panic and 200-mile lines of cars won't start until 24 hours prior.

Then it gets real. Very real.

Chased to the core 16 named hurricanes up close and personal. Inner eyewall of Cat 5 Michael. Many here remember the posts.

Plan on Cat 5 said that days ago that water is hot.

Chuck

When it gets real find a nice parking garage

[eastcoastFL]

A well-developed hurricane going into hot bathtub water should be an indication that said hurricane is going to ramp up again.

They nail track not intensity.

Get outside young budding met types at and observe the weather. Every day. It ain't just what the computer tells you.

As told in many posts the panic and 200-mile lines of cars won't start until 24 hours prior.

Then it gets real. Very real.

Chased to the core 16 named hurricanes up close and personal. Inner eyewall of Cat 5 Michael. Many here remember the posts.

Plan on Cat 5 said that days ago that water is hot.

Chuck

There’s a lot of Florida rookies right now. They will learn a lot from this storm and do better next time.

[ConvergenceZone]

A well-developed hurricane going into hot bathtub water should be an indication that said hurricane is going to ramp up again.

They nail track not intensity.

Get outside young budding met types at and observe the weather. Every day. It ain't just what the computer tells you.

As told in many posts the panic and 200-mile lines of cars won't start until 24 hours prior.

Then it gets real. Very real.

Chased to the core 16 named hurricanes up close and personal. Inner eyewall of Cat 5 Michael. Many here remember the posts.

Plan on Cat 5 said that days ago that water is hot.

Chuck

But remember, it takes alot more than just hot bath water to intensify storms. And the shear is expected to ramp up starting tomorrow morning , as all of the models, ship data and national hurricane center have mentioned.

[ElectricStorm]

AF 907.2 extrap

[Travorum]

AF SE-NW pass part 1:

234800 2252N 08649W 6970 02793 9576 +123 //// 236121 124 104 003 01
234830 2254N 08649W 6973 02713 9520 +135 //// 236133 134 120 029 01
234900 2256N 08650W 6993 02581 9429 +130 //// 235138 142 132 030 01
234930 2257N 08651W 6946 02498 9208 +147 +146 228118 137 133 031 01
235000 2259N 08652W 6985 02359 9115 +203 +128 227061 097 121 001 00
235030 2300N 08653W 6970 02357 9072 +228 +113 242026 042 058 001 00
235100 2301N 08654W 6971 02357 9072 +231 +108 347003 019 037 001 03
235130 2303N 08654W 6972 02375 9115 +203 +122 072037 052 059 003 00
235200 2305N 08655W 6972 02447 9205 +150 +140 074086 106 143 020 00

907.2mb extrap | 142kts FL SE | 133kts SFMR SE

So far: 143mb SFMR NW

[Teban54]

It seems like a new EWRC wasn't as obviously forecasted as the previous one. In my opinion, an EWRC tonight can really lead to a variety of different outcomes. Im getting fatigue. I'm ready to get this over with. Can it be Thursday morning already?

I would rather just have Milton freeze in time, so that we can admire its strength and beauty all we want without even having to think about the horrible destruction it will bring down the road.

[hipshot]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/HxYvR0xF/goes16-ir-14-L-202410082227.gif [/url]

Meanwhile Milton continues ENE…

I think someone posted that Milton is expected to hit the loop current in just a few hours so we should know by morning.

[zal0phus]

It seems like a new EWRC wasn't as obviously forecasted as the previous one. In my opinion, an EWRC tonight can really lead to a variety of different outcomes. Im getting fatigue. I'm ready to get this over with. Can it be Thursday morning already?

I would rather just have Milton freeze in time, so that we can admire its strength and beauty all we want without even having to think about the horrible destruction it will bring down the road.

Wouldn't it be great if Milton just pulled a Juan 1985 and meandered itself to death in the Gulf?

[xironman]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/HxYvR0xF/goes16-ir-14-L-202410082227.gif [/url]

Meanwhile Milton continues ENE…

I think someone posted that Milton is expected to hit the loop current in just a few hours so we should know by morning.

06z->12z

[ElectricStorm]

Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
700 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

...MILTON WILL BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND WINDS TO
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 86.9W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...902 MB...26.64 INCHES

[hipshot]

A well-developed hurricane going into hot bathtub water should be an indication that said hurricane is going to ramp up again.

They nail track not intensity.

Get outside young budding met types at and observe the weather. Every day. It ain't just what the computer tells you.

As told in many posts the panic and 200-mile lines of cars won't start until 24 hours prior.

Then it gets real. Very real.

Chased to the core 16 named hurricanes up close and personal. Inner eyewall of Cat 5 Michael. Many here remember the posts.

Plan on Cat 5 said that days ago that water is hot.

Chuck

There’s a lot of Florida rookies right now. They will learn a lot from this storm and do better next time.

If there is a next time

[Teban54]

Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
700 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

...MILTON WILL BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND WINDS TO
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 86.9W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...902 MB...26.64 INCHES

A little bit surprised they went with 902 mb given that recon is clearly showing a slight rise in pressure, but perhaps they're acknowledging the peak earlier. Either way, it's still impressive and insane for Milton to get this low twice.

[kassi]

A well-developed hurricane going into hot bathtub water should be an indication that said hurricane is going to ramp up again.

They nail track not intensity.

Get outside young budding met types at and observe the weather. Every day. It ain't just what the computer tells you.

As told in many posts the panic and 200-mile lines of cars won't start until 24 hours prior.

Then it gets real. Very real.

Chased to the core 16 named hurricanes up close and personal. Inner eyewall of Cat 5 Michael. Many here remember the posts.

Plan on Cat 5 said that days ago that water is hot.

Chuck

I may have missed it on here, but are you chasing Milton?
If so, please be careful and good luck.

[Abdullah]

Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
700 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

...MILTON WILL BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND WINDS TO
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 86.9W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...902 MB...26.64 INCHES

A little bit surprised they went with 902 mb given that recon is clearly showing a slight rise in pressure, but perhaps they're acknowledging the peak earlier. Either way, it's still impressive and insane for Milton to get this low twice.

902 mbar still a top ten peak