ATL: BERYL - Models

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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#381 Postby Nimbus » Mon Jul 01, 2024 1:47 pm

Don't like the HWRF trend at all 12z has landfall back north of Cozumel.
I'm still shell shocked with the rapid intensification and haven't had time to look at the weakness forming near Hispaniola. Beryl is steadily gaining latitude and may slow down near Jamaica as steering weakens before the CONUS ridging takes over. We don't want to wait there for the next long wave to dig down through Texas..
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#382 Postby ColdMiser123 » Mon Jul 01, 2024 2:02 pm

There is still a tremendous amount of model spread within the 12z EPS.

While it's not the most likely outcome, something like 30% of members show an outright U.S. landfall.

Shows there is a lot of uncertainty still concerning the erosion of the ridge to the north and why this still should be watched for U.S. interests.

Image
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#383 Postby AerospaceEng » Mon Jul 01, 2024 2:08 pm

If the 12z HWRF comes close to verifying…yikes. Really wonder where it would have made landfall if it went out farther.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#384 Postby LarryWx » Mon Jul 01, 2024 2:27 pm

LarryWx wrote:0Z UKMET stays 100+ miles S of Jamaica and landfalls in Belize (I’m just looking at track and am ignoring strength):

HURRICANE BERYL ANALYSED POSITION : 11.1N 57.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.07.2024 0 11.1N 57.0W 972 74
1200UTC 01.07.2024 12 12.2N 60.5W 981 64
0000UTC 02.07.2024 24 13.6N 64.1W 984 65
1200UTC 02.07.2024 36 14.8N 67.9W 989 58
0000UTC 03.07.2024 48 15.7N 72.1W 997 52
1200UTC 03.07.2024 60 16.1N 75.9W 999 51
0000UTC 04.07.2024 72 16.5N 79.4W 1000 47
1200UTC 04.07.2024 84 17.0N 83.3W 1000 40
0000UTC 05.07.2024 96 17.3N 86.5W 1001 37
1200UTC 05.07.2024 108 17.5N 89.3W 1004 28
0000UTC 06.07.2024 120 CEASED TRACKING


12Z UKMET vs 0Z: slightly further N with a little closer to Jamaica and landfall on Yucatan just N of Belize instead in N Belize; final landfall Tampico:

HURRICANE BERYL ANALYSED POSITION : 12.1N 60.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.07.2024 0 12.1N 60.5W 963 91
0000UTC 02.07.2024 12 13.7N 63.8W 981 71
1200UTC 02.07.2024 24 15.1N 67.7W 986 65
0000UTC 03.07.2024 36 16.0N 71.8W 993 59
1200UTC 03.07.2024 48 16.5N 75.7W 998 52
0000UTC 04.07.2024 60 17.3N 79.0W 1000 45
1200UTC 04.07.2024 72 18.0N 82.9W 1001 37
0000UTC 05.07.2024 84 18.1N 86.0W 1001 37
1200UTC 05.07.2024 96 18.7N 88.4W 1004 33
0000UTC 06.07.2024 108 19.4N 91.7W 1005 36
1200UTC 06.07.2024 120 20.5N 93.5W 1006 40
0000UTC 07.07.2024 132 20.9N 95.6W 1006 35
1200UTC 07.07.2024 144 21.7N 97.0W 1006 32
0000UTC 08.07.2024 156 CEASED TRACKING
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#385 Postby 3090 » Mon Jul 01, 2024 2:42 pm

LarryWx wrote:
LarryWx wrote:0Z UKMET stays 100+ miles S of Jamaica and landfalls in Belize (I’m just looking at track and am ignoring strength):

HURRICANE BERYL ANALYSED POSITION : 11.1N 57.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.07.2024 0 11.1N 57.0W 972 74
1200UTC 01.07.2024 12 12.2N 60.5W 981 64
0000UTC 02.07.2024 24 13.6N 64.1W 984 65
1200UTC 02.07.2024 36 14.8N 67.9W 989 58
0000UTC 03.07.2024 48 15.7N 72.1W 997 52
1200UTC 03.07.2024 60 16.1N 75.9W 999 51
0000UTC 04.07.2024 72 16.5N 79.4W 1000 47
1200UTC 04.07.2024 84 17.0N 83.3W 1000 40
0000UTC 05.07.2024 96 17.3N 86.5W 1001 37
1200UTC 05.07.2024 108 17.5N 89.3W 1004 28
0000UTC 06.07.2024 120 CEASED TRACKING


12Z UKMET vs 0Z: slightly further N with a little closer to Jamaica and landfall on Yucatan just N of Belize instead in N Belize; final landfall Tampico:

HURRICANE BERYL ANALYSED POSITION : 12.1N 60.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.07.2024 0 12.1N 60.5W 963 91
0000UTC 02.07.2024 12 13.7N 63.8W 981 71
1200UTC 02.07.2024 24 15.1N 67.7W 986 65
0000UTC 03.07.2024 36 16.0N 71.8W 993 59
1200UTC 03.07.2024 48 16.5N 75.7W 998 52
0000UTC 04.07.2024 60 17.3N 79.0W 1000 45
1200UTC 04.07.2024 72 18.0N 82.9W 1001 37
0000UTC 05.07.2024 84 18.1N 86.0W 1001 37
1200UTC 05.07.2024 96 18.7N 88.4W 1004 33
0000UTC 06.07.2024 108 19.4N 91.7W 1005 36
1200UTC 06.07.2024 120 20.5N 93.5W 1006 40
0000UTC 07.07.2024 132 20.9N 95.6W 1006 35
1200UTC 07.07.2024 144 21.7N 97.0W 1006 32
0000UTC 08.07.2024 156 CEASED TRACKING
LarryWx wrote:
LarryWx wrote:0Z UKMET stays 100+ miles S of Jamaica and landfalls in Belize (I’m just looking at track and am ignoring strength):

HURRICANE BERYL ANALYSED POSITION : 11.1N 57.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.07.2024 0 11.1N 57.0W 972 74
1200UTC 01.07.2024 12 12.2N 60.5W 981 64
0000UTC 02.07.2024 24 13.6N 64.1W 984 65
1200UTC 02.07.2024 36 14.8N 67.9W 989 58
0000UTC 03.07.2024 48 15.7N 72.1W 997 52
1200UTC 03.07.2024 60 16.1N 75.9W 999 51
0000UTC 04.07.2024 72 16.5N 79.4W 1000 47
1200UTC 04.07.2024 84 17.0N 83.3W 1000 40
0000UTC 05.07.2024 96 17.3N 86.5W 1001 37
1200UTC 05.07.2024 108 17.5N 89.3W 1004 28
0000UTC 06.07.2024 120 CEASED TRACKING


12Z UKMET vs 0Z: slightly further N with a little closer to Jamaica and landfall on Yucatan just N of Belize instead in N Belize; final landfall Tampico:

HURRICANE BERYL ANALYSED POSITION : 12.1N 60.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.07.2024 0 12.1N 60.5W 963 91
0000UTC 02.07.2024 12 13.7N 63.8W 981 71
1200UTC 02.07.2024 24 15.1N 67.7W 986 65
0000UTC 03.07.2024 36 16.0N 71.8W 993 59
1200UTC 03.07.2024 48 16.5N 75.7W 998 52
0000UTC 04.07.2024 60 17.3N 79.0W 1000 45
1200UTC 04.07.2024 72 18.0N 82.9W 1001 37
0000UTC 05.07.2024 84 18.1N 86.0W 1001 37
1200UTC 05.07.2024 96 18.7N 88.4W 1004 33
0000UTC 06.07.2024 108 19.4N 91.7W 1005 36
1200UTC 06.07.2024 120 20.5N 93.5W 1006 40
0000UTC 07.07.2024 132 20.9N 95.6W 1006 35
1200UTC 07.07.2024 144 21.7N 97.0W 1006 32
0000UTC 08.07.2024 156 CEASED TRACKING


So essentially Beryl will be no more than a mere sunmer time thunderstorm by say July 4th, no? Interesting to see such a dramatic drop in intensity.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#386 Postby ronjon » Mon Jul 01, 2024 3:18 pm

12z NAVGEM has Beryl as 972 mb hurricane into Lake Charles LA Sunday night. Good thing it's the poorest global model there is. :lol:
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#387 Postby Wampadawg » Mon Jul 01, 2024 3:28 pm

ronjon wrote:12z NAVGEM has Beryl as 972 mb hurricane into Lake Charles LA Sunday night. Good thing it's the poorest global model there is. :lol:

Yeah some person actually posted that on X unbelievable
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#388 Postby Nimbus » Mon Jul 01, 2024 3:29 pm

So essentially Beryl will be no more than a mere sunmer time thunderstorm by say July 4th, no? Interesting to see such a dramatic drop in intensity.


That is most of the tracking issue, the HWRF was keeping Beryl a sub 950 mb hurricane all the way to Jamaica. The track actually ran north of Jamaica in one of their earlier runs a few days ago. So we wait for the weakening storm scenario to verify, then we can say with more confidence that the track will be making landfall near Belize.

Recon will have some data tonight but weakening isn't in the forecast yet.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#389 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Mon Jul 01, 2024 3:34 pm

LarryWx wrote:
LarryWx wrote:0Z UKMET stays 100+ miles S of Jamaica and landfalls in Belize (I’m just looking at track and am ignoring strength):

HURRICANE BERYL ANALYSED POSITION : 11.1N 57.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.07.2024 0 11.1N 57.0W 972 74
1200UTC 01.07.2024 12 12.2N 60.5W 981 64
0000UTC 02.07.2024 24 13.6N 64.1W 984 65
1200UTC 02.07.2024 36 14.8N 67.9W 989 58
0000UTC 03.07.2024 48 15.7N 72.1W 997 52
1200UTC 03.07.2024 60 16.1N 75.9W 999 51
0000UTC 04.07.2024 72 16.5N 79.4W 1000 47
1200UTC 04.07.2024 84 17.0N 83.3W 1000 40
0000UTC 05.07.2024 96 17.3N 86.5W 1001 37
1200UTC 05.07.2024 108 17.5N 89.3W 1004 28
0000UTC 06.07.2024 120 CEASED TRACKING


12Z UKMET vs 0Z: slightly further N with a little closer to Jamaica and landfall on Yucatan just N of Belize instead in N Belize; final landfall Tampico:

HURRICANE BERYL ANALYSED POSITION : 12.1N 60.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.07.2024 0 12.1N 60.5W 963 91
0000UTC 02.07.2024 12 13.7N 63.8W 981 71
1200UTC 02.07.2024 24 15.1N 67.7W 986 65
0000UTC 03.07.2024 36 16.0N 71.8W 993 59
1200UTC 03.07.2024 48 16.5N 75.7W 998 52
0000UTC 04.07.2024 60 17.3N 79.0W 1000 45
1200UTC 04.07.2024 72 18.0N 82.9W 1001 37
0000UTC 05.07.2024 84 18.1N 86.0W 1001 37
1200UTC 05.07.2024 96 18.7N 88.4W 1004 33
0000UTC 06.07.2024 108 19.4N 91.7W 1005 36
1200UTC 06.07.2024 120 20.5N 93.5W 1006 40
0000UTC 07.07.2024 132 20.9N 95.6W 1006 35
1200UTC 07.07.2024 144 21.7N 97.0W 1006 32
0000UTC 08.07.2024 156 CEASED TRACKING

To be honest...UKMET has performed quite poorly for this storm. It didn't even show a storm for days when the other models locked in on it.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#390 Postby LarryWx » Mon Jul 01, 2024 3:37 pm

3090 wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
LarryWx wrote:0Z UKMET stays 100+ miles S of Jamaica and landfalls in Belize (I’m just looking at track and am ignoring strength):

HURRICANE BERYL ANALYSED POSITION : 11.1N 57.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.07.2024 0 11.1N 57.0W 972 74
1200UTC 01.07.2024 12 12.2N 60.5W 981 64
0000UTC 02.07.2024 24 13.6N 64.1W 984 65
1200UTC 02.07.2024 36 14.8N 67.9W 989 58
0000UTC 03.07.2024 48 15.7N 72.1W 997 52
1200UTC 03.07.2024 60 16.1N 75.9W 999 51
0000UTC 04.07.2024 72 16.5N 79.4W 1000 47
1200UTC 04.07.2024 84 17.0N 83.3W 1000 40
0000UTC 05.07.2024 96 17.3N 86.5W 1001 37
1200UTC 05.07.2024 108 17.5N 89.3W 1004 28
0000UTC 06.07.2024 120 CEASED TRACKING


12Z UKMET vs 0Z: slightly further N with a little closer to Jamaica and landfall on Yucatan just N of Belize instead in N Belize; final landfall Tampico:

HURRICANE BERYL ANALYSED POSITION : 12.1N 60.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.07.2024 0 12.1N 60.5W 963 91
0000UTC 02.07.2024 12 13.7N 63.8W 981 71
1200UTC 02.07.2024 24 15.1N 67.7W 986 65
0000UTC 03.07.2024 36 16.0N 71.8W 993 59
1200UTC 03.07.2024 48 16.5N 75.7W 998 52
0000UTC 04.07.2024 60 17.3N 79.0W 1000 45
1200UTC 04.07.2024 72 18.0N 82.9W 1001 37
0000UTC 05.07.2024 84 18.1N 86.0W 1001 37
1200UTC 05.07.2024 96 18.7N 88.4W 1004 33
0000UTC 06.07.2024 108 19.4N 91.7W 1005 36
1200UTC 06.07.2024 120 20.5N 93.5W 1006 40
0000UTC 07.07.2024 132 20.9N 95.6W 1006 35
1200UTC 07.07.2024 144 21.7N 97.0W 1006 32
0000UTC 08.07.2024 156 CEASED TRACKING
LarryWx wrote:
LarryWx wrote:0Z UKMET stays 100+ miles S of Jamaica and landfalls in Belize (I’m just looking at track and am ignoring strength):

HURRICANE BERYL ANALYSED POSITION : 11.1N 57.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.07.2024 0 11.1N 57.0W 972 74
1200UTC 01.07.2024 12 12.2N 60.5W 981 64
0000UTC 02.07.2024 24 13.6N 64.1W 984 65
1200UTC 02.07.2024 36 14.8N 67.9W 989 58
0000UTC 03.07.2024 48 15.7N 72.1W 997 52
1200UTC 03.07.2024 60 16.1N 75.9W 999 51
0000UTC 04.07.2024 72 16.5N 79.4W 1000 47
1200UTC 04.07.2024 84 17.0N 83.3W 1000 40
0000UTC 05.07.2024 96 17.3N 86.5W 1001 37
1200UTC 05.07.2024 108 17.5N 89.3W 1004 28
0000UTC 06.07.2024 120 CEASED TRACKING


12Z UKMET vs 0Z: slightly further N with a little closer to Jamaica and landfall on Yucatan just N of Belize instead in N Belize; final landfall Tampico:

HURRICANE BERYL ANALYSED POSITION : 12.1N 60.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.07.2024 0 12.1N 60.5W 963 91
0000UTC 02.07.2024 12 13.7N 63.8W 981 71
1200UTC 02.07.2024 24 15.1N 67.7W 986 65
0000UTC 03.07.2024 36 16.0N 71.8W 993 59
1200UTC 03.07.2024 48 16.5N 75.7W 998 52
0000UTC 04.07.2024 60 17.3N 79.0W 1000 45
1200UTC 04.07.2024 72 18.0N 82.9W 1001 37
0000UTC 05.07.2024 84 18.1N 86.0W 1001 37
1200UTC 05.07.2024 96 18.7N 88.4W 1004 33
0000UTC 06.07.2024 108 19.4N 91.7W 1005 36
1200UTC 06.07.2024 120 20.5N 93.5W 1006 40
0000UTC 07.07.2024 132 20.9N 95.6W 1006 35
1200UTC 07.07.2024 144 21.7N 97.0W 1006 32
0000UTC 08.07.2024 156 CEASED TRACKING


So essentially Beryl will be no more than a mere sunmer time thunderstorm by say July 4th, no? Interesting to see such a dramatic drop in intensity.


The UKMET is great for track as it is one of the better and more respected models for that. It did the best with Ian and very good with Irma. However, usually the wind speeds are (way) too low. This is one of those cases. So, I’d ignore the winds (as I am) and just look at the track. Also, the SLP is often too high.
Last edited by LarryWx on Mon Jul 01, 2024 3:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#391 Postby NDG » Mon Jul 01, 2024 3:53 pm

It doesn't surprised me that some EC ensemble members show Beryl taking such a sharp turn towards the north in the western GOM with the Euro trending towards a much deeper trough coming down the central US eroding the ridge in the south central US. If Beryl stays strong as it tracks across the Caribbean it will feel the weakness coming down.
The NW Gulf needs to keep an eye on this over the next couple of days.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#392 Postby Stratton23 » Mon Jul 01, 2024 4:09 pm

Icon 18z through hour 90 is significantly further north, off the north yucatan- south central gulf
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#393 Postby LARanger » Mon Jul 01, 2024 4:12 pm

ronjon wrote:12z NAVGEM has Beryl as 972 mb hurricane into Lake Charles LA Sunday night. Good thing it's the poorest global model there is. :lol:


That was my PSWAGGER model prediction two days ago. Now I *know* it won't come true.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#394 Postby ColdMiser123 » Mon Jul 01, 2024 4:13 pm

Stratton23 wrote:Icon 18z through hour 90 is significantly further north, off the north yucatan- south central gulf


There is a 1.3 degree difference in latitude between the two runs just 48 hours out. 2 pm EDT Wednesday, the 18z run is at 18.0 N over Jamaica, while the 12z run was well to the south at 16.7 N.

We will have our answer soon enough as to which scenario is closer to being right.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#395 Postby 3090 » Mon Jul 01, 2024 4:23 pm

ColdMiser123 wrote:
Stratton23 wrote:Icon 18z through hour 90 is significantly further north, off the north yucatan- south central gulf


There is a 1.3 degree difference in latitude between the two runs just 48 hours out. 2 pm EDT Wednesday, the 18z run is at 18.0 N over Jamaica, while the 12z run was well to the south at 16.7 N.
.
We will have our answer soon enough as to which scenario is closer to being right.


By my rough estimation Beryl is on course to track between Jamaica and Cuba. JMO
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#396 Postby AerospaceEng » Mon Jul 01, 2024 4:26 pm

18z ICON ends in a strengthening storm heading for the NW Gulf (TX or LA).
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#397 Postby LARanger » Mon Jul 01, 2024 4:29 pm

3090 wrote:By my rough estimation Beryl is on course to track between Jamaica and Cuba. JMO


The 12z ECMWF has a solid shot against Jamaica but still a weak storm hitting mid-Yucatan, then drifting into central Mexico. While the weakness seems unlikely and may bely error further out, this does at least suggest the possibility of a northerly jog to Jamaica that still results in a not-so-northerly track thereafter.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#398 Postby ronjon » Mon Jul 01, 2024 4:31 pm

AerospaceEng wrote:18z ICON ends in a strengthening storm heading for the NW Gulf (TX or LA).


Rut roh. Maybe the 12z NAVGEM was on to something. The 18z ICON shows a frontal system coming into coastal TX at day 5 with Beryl on a NW heading. Hmmm....
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#399 Postby ROCK » Mon Jul 01, 2024 4:33 pm

12Z NAM has pretty strong high building in at 84hrs over the SE CONUS / GOM. Js
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#400 Postby IcyTundra » Mon Jul 01, 2024 4:33 pm

LARanger wrote:
3090 wrote:By my rough estimation Beryl is on course to track between Jamaica and Cuba. JMO


The 12z ECMWF has a solid shot against Jamaica but still a weak storm hitting mid-Yucatan, then drifting into central Mexico. While the weakness seems unlikely and may bely error further out, this does at least suggest the possibility of a northerly jog to Jamaica that still results in a not-so-northerly track thereafter.


We will see I still think the more southern track is likely but can't completely rule out a more northern track into Texas or possibly Louisiana.
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