ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Travorum]

Back half of the AF pass, 154kt SFMR in the N/NW eyewall

235230 2305N 08655W 6972 02447 //// +107 //// 069115 121 154 045 01
235300 2308N 08657W 6982 02695 //// +105 //// 061116 122 138 055 01
235330 2309N 08659W 6961 02797 //// +107 //// 059105 108 113 018 01
235400 2310N 08700W 6980 02832 9686 +111 //// 058094 104 093 010 01

[eastcoastFL]

The Mayor of Tampa regarding Evacuations

When asked about what she would say to residents who’ve ridden out past hurricanes and are hesitant about evacuating for Milton, Castor gave a grave warning.

“Helene was a wake-up call. This is literally catastrophic, and I can say without any dramatization whatsoever: If you choose to stay in one of those evacuation areas, you are going to die,” Castor warned.

[wx98]

I like to read every comment (this storm has been a hard one to keep up with because of all the pages), and this morning around 9:30-10 am CDT there were several people saying “it’s peaked, not gonna make it back to Cat 5, looking ‘anemic’, dry air, shear”, etc. The storm then proceeded to drop 25-30 mbar from this morning as it tracks over the loop current. I was thinking this exact thing last night would happen today, as was forecast by models and understood by those having “atmospheric understanding.” I believe GCane was expecting intensification, which happened. Just an example as to why you can’t make determinations on path and especially intensity based on every little nuanced or perceived change in satellite presentation. And the calls for “dry air” in this forum can get way overblown.

[Category5Kaiju]

I like to read every comment (this storm has been a hard one to keep up with because of all the pages), and this morning around 9:30-10 am CDT there were several people saying “it’s peaked, not gonna make it back to Cat 5, looking ‘anemic’, dry air, shear”, etc. The storm then proceeded to drop 25-30 mbar from this morning as it tracks over the loop current. I was thinking this exact thing last night would happen today, as was forecast by models and understood by those having “atmospheric understanding.” I believe GCane was expecting intensification, which happened. Just an example as to why you can’t make determinations on path and especially intensity based on every little nuanced or perceived change in satellite presentation. And the calls for “dry air” in this forum can get way overblown.

Pretty much summed up as, "just because a storm looks ugly now doesn't mean it will in several hours."

[tiger_deF]

The good news throughout this is that (even with the predicted expansion of wind radius) Milton is a small system. It could conceivably thread the needle between Sarasota and Fort Meyers, or maybe even Tampa and Sarasota. Of course all places would still receive hurricane force winds and potentially life threatening surge, but the damage corridor would be minimized.

A storm like Katrina at this heading would bring 20-30+ feet of surge over the entire region, and major hurricane impacts across the most populated corridor in Florida, and be a true catastrophe. Milton will be disastrous but more localized, like an Anti-Helene.

[caneman]

Still west of track for 4 hours now looks like Longboat key

[ConvergenceZone]

The good news throughout this is that (even with the predicted expansion of wind radius) Milton is a small system. It could conceivably thread the needle between Sarasota and Fort Meyers, or maybe even Tampa and Sarasota. Of course all places would still receive hurricane force winds and potentially life threatening surge, but the damage corridor would be minimized.

A storm like Katrina at this heading would bring 20-30+ feet of surge over the entire region, and major hurricane impacts across the most populated corridor in Florida, and be a true catastrophe. Milton will be disastrous but more localized, like an Anti-Helene.

Well they said on the weather channel that it is expected it to double in size by the time is hits landfall. Also another EWRC is going to happen before landfall and that will aid in this doubling.

[floridasun]

will track pull more south at 11pm toward fort Mayers area still up north?

[SconnieCane]

I've probably saved more visible and IR loop GIFs for Milton than any previous Atlantic hurricane I've tracked; beating out the likes of Ian, Sam, Ida, Eta, Iota, Dorian, Michael, Maria and Irma.

[CronkPSU]

will track pull more south at 11pm toward fort Mayers area still up north?

Gfs still Tampa, hurricane models still Tampa, don’t see why they would move the track much if at all

[utweather]

Tampa area folks are so trained by Charlie, Ian etc. , that one Advisory showing a south move caused a bunch of folks on social media to wave the all clear flag. I hope people stay tuned into the 11PM advisory and beyond.

"Crowd mentality"?

One counter balancing fact: the local TV weather folks almost always focus on the threat to their own viewing audience--so I bet they are not waving the all-clear flag on Tampa TV. And they certainly have an audience many multitudes of times greater than some online weather forums.

Nah Tampa tv stations have regular tv shows on now. Last guy I saw on abc talked about the shifts south of Tampa and the good news. The belief in the dome is strong there.
Continous tv coverage in Fort Myers and Orlando though. Really feel for the people in Fort Myers.

[floridasun]

will track pull more south at 11pm toward fort Mayers area still up north?

Gfs still Tampa, hurricane models still Tampa, don’t see why they would move the track much if at all

dont see moving ne any time soon nhc say tonight let see if right

[kassi]

The Mayor of Tampa regarding Evacuations

When asked about what she would say to residents who’ve ridden out past hurricanes and are hesitant about evacuating for Milton, Castor gave a grave warning.

“Helene was a wake-up call. This is literally catastrophic, and I can say without any dramatization whatsoever: If you choose to stay in one of those evacuation areas, you are going to die,” Castor warned.

While it's definitely a possibility, and I do believe everyone should heed mandatory evacuations, I do not agree with her approach.

[Meteorcane]

will track pull more south at 11pm toward fort Mayers area still up north?

Currently no good reason to shift the track further south (if anything 18Z guidance has shifted slightly north)... still looks like Venice to Clearwater is the range of possible landfall spots with Sarasota to St.Pete probably the best (i.e. 25th to 75th percentile) guess. Unfortunately the impacts for Tampa proper are vastly different depending on the location.

[dukeblue219]

The good news throughout this is that (even with the predicted expansion of wind radius) Milton is a small system. It could conceivably thread the needle between Sarasota and Fort Meyers, or maybe even Tampa and Sarasota. Of course all places would still receive hurricane force winds and potentially life threatening surge, but the damage corridor would be minimized.

A storm like Katrina at this heading would bring 20-30+ feet of surge over the entire region, and major hurricane impacts across the most populated corridor in Florida, and be a true catastrophe. Milton will be disastrous but more localized, like an Anti-Helene.

Granted the wind field is likely to expand for Milton, but consider the following. First, the 8pm advisory for Milton:
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km).

Katrina right before landfall:
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES.

However, Katrina 36 hours before landfall was far smaller:
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES.

This isn't a forecast, but just historical context of Katrina before she blew up and then weakened while expanding.

[Xyls]

An interesting tidbit for everyone assuming that Milton makes landfall after midnight tomorrow it will make landfall on Florida on the exact 6 year anniversary that it's named predecessor Michael did.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

An interesting tidbit for everyone assuming that Milton makes landfall after midnight tomorrow it will make landfall on Florida on the exact 6 year anniversary that it's named predecessor Michael did.

Yes, the hurricane season comes at the same time every year.

[FLLurker32]

Timing of the NE heading will make a huge difference on where this ends up. I accidentally took an unheard of evening nap. Time to wobble watch and read comments claiming new landfall points all night.

[Pas_Bon]

Is Tampa/St Pete a ghost town now? Trying to see what it’s like there

[GCANE]

Milton is now beginning his journey over the Loop Current