ATL: BERYL - Models

[Stratton23]

The 06z GFS has really sped up the timing of this system getting into the gulf, hour 210 its in the central gulf moving NW, feeling that trough

[jlauderdal]

00z EPS is still very active with more Florida members than yesterday's 12z (even though I wouldn't put much weight towards steering details until we have a TC).

https://i.imgur.com/sqO6xMm.png

Does the graveyard do its work, if not, big trouble for the united states brewing.

[Nimbus]

00z EPS is still very active with more Florida members than yesterday's 12z (even though I wouldn't put much weight towards steering details until we have a TC).

https://i.imgur.com/sqO6xMm.png

Does the graveyard do its work, if not, big trouble for the united states brewing.

00Z a TUTT shears this to almost nothing in western Caribbean or is that SAL?

[jlauderdal]

00z EPS is still very active with more Florida members than yesterday's 12z (even though I wouldn't put much weight towards steering details until we have a TC).

https://i.imgur.com/sqO6xMm.png

Does the graveyard do its work, if not, big trouble for the united states brewing.

00Z a TUTT shears this to almost nothing in western Caribbean or is that SAL?

TUTTs come and go, popping up on models and then disappearing. First things first, and I encourage everyone to go to the discussion thread, US Tropics did a couple of very good posts with explanations about the near-term consolidation process. This, of course, is critical to what happens downstream: stronger further north, weaker further south and west. If it is unable to develop prior to the islands, then it's a decent bet it's heading south. We have seen this many times: all systems go, and Mother Nature says, "Nope." however, this season is living up to its hype, so there are better chances this year than, say, last for development.

[kevin]

Overview of 06z models (HWRF/HMON/HAFS-A/HAFS-B/GFS)

HWRF
PEAK: 960 mb @ 126 hrs | 109 kt @ 126 hrs
hr / pressure (mb) / wind (kt)
00 / 1008 / 20
06 / 1013 / 25
12 / 1010 / 23
18 / 1008 / 43 - TD
24 / 1008 / 31
30 / 1009 / 30
36 / 1008 / 30
42 / 1004 / 46 - TS
48 / 1001 / 38
54 / 1004 / 41
60 / 1005 / 36
66 / 1007 / 37
72 / 1004 / 40
78 / 1001 / 53
84 / 998 / 53
90 / 995 / 56
96 / 988 / 62
102 / 986 / 65 - CAT 1
108 / 981 / 71
114 / 976 / 84 - CAT 2
120 / 965 / 105 - CAT 3
126 / 960 / 109

HMON
PEAK: 981 mb @ 117 hrs | 90 kt @ 117 hrs
hr / pressure (mb) / wind (kt)
00 / 1011 / 25
06 / 1011 / 24
12 / 1011 / 22
18 / 1008 / 28
24 / 1007 / 32
30 / 1008 / 28
36 / 1008 / 28
42 / 1008 / 28
48 / 1007 / 32 - TD
54 / 1006 / 33
60 / 1008 / 31
66 / 1003 / 41 - TS
72 / 1002 / 43
78 / 1000 / 44
84 / 1001 / 44
90 / 999 / 48
96 / 998 / 53
102 / 994 / 58
108 / 990 / 67 - CAT 1
114 / 983 / 88 - CAT 2
120 / 983 / 76
126 / 985 / 78

HAFS-A
PEAK: 982 mb @ 111 hrs | 76 kt @ 120 hrs
hr / pressure (mb) / wind (kt)
00 / 1009 / 24
06 / 1006 / 25
12 / 1005 / 28
18 / 1006 / 32 - TD
24 / 1005 / 35
30 / 1005 / 31
36 / 1000 / 50
42 / 1005 / 34
48 / 1003 / 34
54 / 1007 / 36
60 / 1005 / 33
66 / 1002 / 47 - TS
72 / 1000 / 50
78 / 997 / 47
84 / 995 / 63
90 / 994 / 52
96 / 990 / 61
102 / 985 / 56
108 / 988 / 55
114 / 984 / 71 - CAT 1
120 / 984 / 76
126 / 987 / 63

HAFS-B
PEAK: 961 mb @ 123 hrs | 106 kt @ 123 hrs
hr / pressure (mb) / wind (kt)
00 / 1009 / 23
06 / 1008 / 24
12 / 1005 / 25
18 / 1007 / 32 - TD
24 / 1004 / 39
30 / 1008 / 30
36 / 1003 / 36
42 / 1000 / 54
48 / 1003 / 34
54 / 1003 / 43 - TS
60 / 1005 / 39
66 / 999 / 50
72 / 996 / 65
78 / 998 / 56
84 / 995 / 53
90 / 995 / 54
96 / 989 / 65 - CAT 1
102 / 986 / 75
108 / 978 / 91 - CAT 2
114 / 970 / 105 - CAT 3
120 / 966 / 102
126 / 962 / 104

GFS
PEAK: 967 mb @ 120 hrs | 90 kt @ 120 hrs
hr / pressure (mb) / wind (kt)
00 / 1008 / 21
06 / 1011 / 22
12 / 1010 / 21
18 / 1011 / 24
24 / 1006 / 24
30 / 1007 / 30 - TD
36 / 1007 / 35
42 / 1007 / 30
48 / 1002 / 40 - TS
54 / 1002 / 45
60 / 994 / 54
66 / 992 / 63
72 / 989 / 60
78 / 988 / 60
84 / 985 / 64
90 / 986 / 69 - CAT 1
96 / 983 / 69
102 / 982 / 74
108 / 973 / 84 - CAT 2
114 / 970 / 84
120 / 967 / 90
126 / 977 / 73

And just since I'm busy anyways an averaged blend of all the above models. Assuming that the TC peaks before 126 hrs (aka it weakens in the Caribbean) the blend would forecast a decent category 2 hurricane. Quite rare this early in the year and perhaps a sign of things to come, but not a Dennis or Emily (yet).

Blend
PEAK: 977 mb @ 120 hrs | 90 kt @ 120 hrs
hr / pressure (mb) / wind (kt)
00 / 1009 / 23
06 / 1010 / 24
12 / 1008 / 24
18 / 1008 / 32 - TD
24 / 1006 / 32
30 / 1007 / 30
36 / 1005 / 36 - TS
42 / 1005 / 38
48 / 1003 / 36
54 / 1004 / 40
60 / 1003 / 39
66 / 1001 / 48
72 / 998 / 52
78 / 997 / 52
84 / 995 / 55
90 / 994 / 56
96 / 990 / 62
102 / 987 / 66 - CAT 1
108 / 982 / 74
114 / 977 / 86 - CAT 2
120 / 973 / 90
126 / 974 / 85

[LarryWx]

I’d really like the UKMET to finally actually have a TC to increase confidence that there will be a TS by the Lesser Antilles as it is one of the more respected/better models.

[tolakram]

For Bret, the most recent early fail by the models, all had predicted bad conditions in the Caribbean and a storm that organized and then fell apart. The hurricane models were all over the place, no consistent agreement. Bret did not develop early and hit the bad conditions before it got started.

So far this is not the case with 95L.

Euro, with the tiny circulation, is giving hints at a Dean or Felix type of storm IMO. It's been too long and too many model changes to really feel confident in that call though.

[cycloneye]

There is a good consensus among the hurricane BAMS.

[Category5Kaiju]

I think one thing that's growing more apparent given model trends is that this probably won't just turn out to sea and miss the Antilles, unfortunately.

[3090]

There is a good consensus among the hurricane BAMS.

https://i.imgur.com/NkpXCvq.png

These tracks show a trend towards the Yucatan channel. The fact that there is exceptional agreement with the forecast tracks this early, without closed system, should be alarming. Particularly for this time of the hurricane season.

[jlauderdal]

I think one thing that's growing more apparent given model trends is that this probably won't just turn out to sea and miss the Antilles, unfortunately.

Yeah, that idea has been off the table for a few days; initially, there was a path out on the euro, but that was shut down on the next cycle.

[ScottNAtlanta]

00z EPS is still very active with more Florida members than yesterday's 12z (even though I wouldn't put much weight towards steering details until we have a TC).

https://i.imgur.com/sqO6xMm.png

Does the graveyard do its work, if not, big trouble for the united states brewing.

It might be the shredder rather than the graveyard if this goes over Haiti

[lsuhurricane]

Hate to be a quick hitter on the GFS run rolling out, but this specific run appears to be very juiced!

[Category5Kaiju]

It begins to really intensify merely 2 days from now. And, mind you, this is before it impacts the islands.

[lsuhurricane]

Really great agreement between the GFS and Canadian in terms of both track and intensity. As well as the trailing system.

[Kazmit]

12z GFS has doubled down, a few mbars stronger by the time it reaches the islands. Will be interesting to see if the euro follows suit.

[MetroMike]

Really great agreement between the GFS and Canadian in terms of both track and intensity. As well as the trailing system.

GFS seem further north than the CMC under the islands at least

[Michele B]

00z EPS is still very active with more Florida members than yesterday's 12z (even though I wouldn't put much weight towards steering details until we have a TC).

https://i.imgur.com/sqO6xMm.png

Does the graveyard do its work, if not, big trouble for the united states brewing.

It might be the shredder rather than the graveyard if this goes over Haiti

Right now, all models seem to keep it south of the shredder. That's not a good sign.

We all know once it gets into the Gulf, it's going to landfall somewhere.

[hurricane2025]

CMC sucks why even look at that model

[South Texas Storms]

CMC sucks why even look at that model

It's actually been one of the more reliable models since the last upgrade a few years ago. I follow it closely and it's been pretty reliable for quite some time now.