ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[psyclone]

I'm watching this one from up north...if this works out right...it could be a net benefit as it may help diffuse the heat bomb over the eastern gulf...but we are juggling sparklers over 93 octane fuel..so it's risky business either way. My gut instinct is a juicy ts...but wow...who knows. Be ready as this could well be the appetizer for what is to come. Real hurricane season starts today. I'm expecting a an upgrade from mandarin to cherry at the 2 pm update. Something is probably going to happen..that's my bold, wildly unprofessional forecast

[cycloneye]

Here is the cherry. They add the word likely.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Atlantic and Eastern Gulf of Mexico (AL97):
A well-defined tropical wave is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico,
the Southeastern Bahamas, and the adjacent waters of the
southwestern Atlantic and northeastern Caribbean Sea. Development of
this system should be slow to occur during the next day or so while
it moves west-northwestward over portions of the Greater Antilles.
However, environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive
for development after the wave passes the Greater Antilles, and a
tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next
week over the eastern Gulf of Mexico near the Florida Peninsula.
Interests across the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Florida
should continue to monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[ScottNAtlanta]

I might be seeing things, but it sure looks like a center is trying to form over the Turks and Caicos. I'm even starting to see low level flow bending in that way

[ScottNAtlanta]

New video from Levi



Link: https://youtube.com/watch?v=EpovJI5brwQ

[boca]

The SE part of Florida is almost out of the cone.

[SFLcane]

The SE part of Florida is almost out of the cone.

Again this not a cone! All of the peninsula is the development area the only thing this shows is were genesis might take place and the likelyhood thats it. Either way you slice it we are in for a heavyrain event here in southern florida along with gusty squalls. Could easily track up the westcoast considering this maybe a loose not well defind tc all the weather could be spread out. fyi and if we do have the unfortunate to be in a "advisory cone" later this year that only shows you the area were the center could track not the impacts which always extend outside.

[wxman57]

12Z models are in very good agreement now. TS passing west of Tampa late Sunday morning and making landfall north of Tampa by mid-afternoon. GFS gave up on the hurricane prediction. Euro and Canadian have landfall as a TD. Only significant disagreement is how close it tracks to the East U.S. Coast early next week. ICON is farthest, GFS farthest west. GFS takes the center over the OB as a possible hurricane next Friday morning before turning it sharply ENE and out to sea.

[wxman57]

The SE part of Florida is almost out of the cone.

Again this not a cone! All of the peninsula is the development area the only thing this shows is were genesis might take place and the likelyhood thats it. Either way you slice it we are in for a heavyrain event here in southern florida along with gusty squalls. Could easily track up the westcoast considering this maybe a loose not well defind tc all the weather could be spread out. fyi and if we do have the unfortunate to be in a "advisory cone" later this year that only shows you the area were the center could track not the impacts which always extend outside.

I was going to point that out. No cone. I'd also include that the cone is meaningless as far as predicting possible impacts. It should be ignored, particularly within 2-3 days of landfall.

[SFLcane]

The SE part of Florida is almost out of the cone.

Again this not a cone! All of the peninsula is the development area the only thing this shows is were genesis might take place and the likelyhood thats it. Either way you slice it we are in for a heavyrain event here in southern florida along with gusty squalls. Could easily track up the westcoast considering this maybe a loose not well defind tc all the weather could be spread out. fyi and if we do have the unfortunate to be in a "advisory cone" later this year that only shows you the area were the center could track not the impacts which always extend outside.

I was going to point that out. No cone. I'd also include that the cone is meaningless as far as predicting possible impacts. It should be ignored, particularly within 2-3 days of landfall.

This should be pinned somewere on S2K!

[boca]

The SE part of Florida is almost out of the cone.

Again this not a cone! All of the peninsula is the development area the only thing this shows is were genesis might take place and the likelyhood thats it. Either way you slice it we are in for a heavyrain event here in southern florida along with gusty squalls. Could easily track up the westcoast considering this maybe a loose not well defind tc all the weather could be spread out. fyi and if we do have the unfortunate to be in a "advisory cone" later this year that only shows you the area were the center could track not the impacts which always extend outside.

Thank you for the info on the development area.

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/NWSMiami/status/1819069890889711898

[tulum07]

If this does go thru the FL straits and E GOM would SE FL (Keys to WPB) get the "dirty" NE side?

[ChrisH-UK]

97L is getting a lot of convection, no sign yet of any circulation as its still curling up. I get the feeling it might end up developing quicker than what we thought.

Source - https://col.st/ttWM3

[SFLcane]

If this does go thru the FL straits and E GOM would SE FL (Keys to WPB) get the "dirty" NE side?

Right the threat is for heavy rainfall as mentioned any loose not developed tc could have the its weather spread out. Follow your local weather office on social media for local info. Or stay here on S2K.

[cycloneye]

Ok folks. There is a new position of the best track at 18z:

AL, 97, 2024080118, , BEST, 0, 19.8N, 72.0W, 25, 1012, DB

[WaveBreaking]

Outflow starting to fan out to the W as 97L overcomes the nearby TUTT

[Nimbus]

Well, taking my last look at this system until later this evening and the only nuanced observation are the few arc clouds ejecting from some of the north side convection. That along with its persistent west forward motion and cut-off surface convergence from the south, I find myself leaning toward the southern vort max to eventually become the catalyst for organization. Whether this occurs at a latitude just south of Cuba or after traversing Cuba might too have ramifications reflecting how strong it might become in the GOM and timing of downstream track.

The Euro has the mid level vort max south of Cuba so if we get some strong thunderstorms near there once it clears Haiti to focus the low level energy its going to be bad. Depression closing off Sunday like WXman57 said wouldn't be to bad except for the rain wherever it decides to stall.

[Stormlover70]

12Z models are in very good agreement now. TS passing west of Tampa late Sunday morning and making landfall north of Tampa by mid-afternoon. GFS gave up on the hurricane prediction. Euro and Canadian have landfall as a TD. Only significant disagreement is how close it tracks to the East U.S. Coast early next week. ICON is farthest, GFS farthest west. GFS takes the center over the OB as a possible hurricane next Friday morning before turning it sharply ENE and out to sea.

So no stall like some models were showing? Thanks in advance.

[IcyTundra]

12Z models are in very good agreement now. TS passing west of Tampa late Sunday morning and making landfall north of Tampa by mid-afternoon. GFS gave up on the hurricane prediction. Euro and Canadian have landfall as a TD. Only significant disagreement is how close it tracks to the East U.S. Coast early next week. ICON is farthest, GFS farthest west. GFS takes the center over the OB as a possible hurricane next Friday morning before turning it sharply ENE and out to sea.

So no stall like some models were showing? Thanks in advance.

I wouldn't completely rule out a stall. There is still a large amount of uncertainty as a TD hasn't even formed yet.

[Stratton23]

Stormlover70 no a stall is definitely on the table if not likely at this point because eventually the ridge does trap the system, its whether that occurs in the gulf or off the se US coast remains unclear, its a very complex pattern