ATL: ERNESTO - Models

[chaser1]

The 12z gfs is close to being a very bad run for the ne US. That trough evolution, but further southwest would slingshot it into the coast. Not a particularly likely outcome, and I feel like the globals always show a run or two like this for every recurving storm, but still something to watch for.

Is NYC still in play, or is it mostly New England at this point?

If I were anywhere from Cape Hatteras northward to the Canadian Maritimes, I'd keep an eye on the possibility of a northward recurvature that ultimately takes a storm toward Bermuda but then tracks northwest from there (rather than out to sea). Why?? Because there is a big difference between a lower latitude progressive Westerly flow, and Weak Westerlies that might just have kinks (weaker troughs or cut-off lows) that are somewhat cut off from higher latitude stronger Westerlies. I havn't seen any evidence of lots of sub-tropics storm generation or tropical cyclones that form in the MDR and recurve in the Central Atlantic. This season has already hinted toward a heavier dose of west Atlantic basin activity. The entire Eastern Seaboard need keep their eyes wide open to potential risk from the southeast.

[Woofde]

The 12z gfs is close to being a very bad run for the ne US. That trough evolution, but further southwest would slingshot it into the coast. Not a particularly likely outcome, and I feel like the globals always show a run or two like this for every recurving storm, but still something to watch for.

Is NYC still in play, or is it mostly New England at this point?

It's probably over 200 hours out from those areas, and we don't even have a storm yet. It could be 1000 miles away or right on top of NYC. It's complete guesswork at this lead time.

[Tekken_Guy]

The 12z gfs is close to being a very bad run for the ne US. That trough evolution, but further southwest would slingshot it into the coast. Not a particularly likely outcome, and I feel like the globals always show a run or two like this for every recurving storm, but still something to watch for.

Is NYC still in play, or is it mostly New England at this point?

If I were anywhere from Cape Hatteras northward to the Canadian Maritimes, I'd keep an eye on the possibility of a northward recurvature that ultimately takes a storm toward Bermuda but then tracks northwest from there (rather than out to sea). Why?? Because there is a big difference between a lower latitude progressive Westerly flow, and Weak Westerlies that might just have kinks (weaker troughs or cut-off lows) that are somewhat cut off from higher latitude stronger Westerlies. I havn't seen any evidence of lots of sub-tropics storm generation or tropical cyclones that form in the MDR and recurve in the Central Atlantic. This season has already hinted toward a heavier dose of west Atlantic basin activity. The entire Eastern Seaboard need keep their eyes wide open to potential risk from the southeast.

If the storm recurves at 70W towards Bermuda then I think most of the Eastern US should be in the clear. Canada is another story though.

[cheezyWXguy]

The 12z gfs is close to being a very bad run for the ne US. That trough evolution, but further southwest would slingshot it into the coast. Not a particularly likely outcome, and I feel like the globals always show a run or two like this for every recurving storm, but still something to watch for.

Is NYC still in play, or is it mostly New England at this point?

I mean, it’s in play, but it’s one out of like a hundred different possible tracks at the moment. I don’t recall if it was this thread or the discussion thread, but someone posted a tweet from Eric Webb further discussing the possibility. Eric thinks that a long wave trough over the east coast isn’t a given, and that it’s possible it could cut off and hang back a bit, allowing for capture. The chance is low, but apparently this is the time of year and overall pattern that produces the best (but still low) chance of such a track.

Best to see how things evolve in the shorter term (next 5 days) and how the models react accordingly before putting too much stock in a long term track

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

The 12z gfs is close to being a very bad run for the ne US. That trough evolution, but further southwest would slingshot it into the coast. Not a particularly likely outcome, and I feel like the globals always show a run or two like this for every recurving storm, but still something to watch for.

Is NYC still in play, or is it mostly New England at this point?

Until a low-level storm center actually forms and we are a week out or likely less say five days out, anything is on the table. So, 50/50 at this point or a coin toss. Please stay tuned. Ten days plus days out (the flow could always speed up or slow down around the potential system) is far too long a time period for a reliable forecast.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro with a sharp recurve, gets close to PR though:

[aspen]

All 3 HWRF runs have shown a pretty bad structure for intensification at the end of their runs, with an inner eyewall surrounded by lots of bands and partial eyewalls. HWRF could be sniffing out that future Ernesto might be another Larry or Earl, stuck in an endless EWRC attempt that keeps it from taking advantage of an otherwise favorable environment and results in an extremely broad wind field.

[Teban54]

All 3 HWRF runs have shown a pretty bad structure for intensification at the end of their runs, with an inner eyewall surrounded by lots of bands and partial eyewalls. HWRF could be sniffing out that future Ernesto might be another Larry or Earl, stuck in an endless EWRC attempt that keeps it from taking advantage of an otherwise favorable environment and results in an extremely broad wind field.

Do we know how well HWRF does on forecasting storm structure at 126 hrs, though? I know people here have often praised HWRF for structural predictions in the short term (say within 1-3 days), and that it's one of the best intensity models out there even up to the medium term (somewhat surprisingly)... But I haven't seen much about structure in the medium term, which is even harder to predict than the notoriously challenging intensity forecasts.

So if a storm has already formed and HWRF suggests an EWRC-prone structure in 3 days, that would seem more believable to me, but right now I myself wouldn't place too much weight on this.

[cycloneye]

All 3 HWRF runs have shown a pretty bad structure for intensification at the end of their runs, with an inner eyewall surrounded by lots of bands and partial eyewalls. HWRF could be sniffing out that future Ernesto might be another Larry or Earl, stuck in an endless EWRC attempt that keeps it from taking advantage of an otherwise favorable environment and results in an extremely broad wind field.

Do we know how well HWRF does on forecasting storm structure at 126 hrs, though? I know people here have often praised HWRF for structural predictions in the short term (say within 1-3 days), and that it's one of the best intensity models out there even up to the medium term (somewhat surprisingly)... But I haven't seen much about structure in the medium term, which is even harder to predict than the notoriously challenging intensity forecasts.

So if a storm has already formed and HWRF suggests an EWRC-prone structure in 3 days, that would seem more believable to me, but right now I myself wouldn't place too much weight on this.

The first recon mission from NOAA on Monday morning will be very important with the data that will feed to the models.

[Tekken_Guy]

If the storm recurves at or before 70W, then the US is probably in the clear.

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

a bit too early to say doom off, models are walking this west more and more each run. Monday we can say for sure

[BobHarlem]

18z earlies, east/right shift on all the models except the GFS which is left/west (AVNI on the plot). TVNC/I getting closer to Bermuda on the 18z though.

[hurricanehunter69]

This storm will pass through the Hebert Box. Florida not out of the woods yet. Even gulf is not impossible.

[aspen]

All 3 HWRF runs have shown a pretty bad structure for intensification at the end of their runs, with an inner eyewall surrounded by lots of bands and partial eyewalls. HWRF could be sniffing out that future Ernesto might be another Larry or Earl, stuck in an endless EWRC attempt that keeps it from taking advantage of an otherwise favorable environment and results in an extremely broad wind field.

Do we know how well HWRF does on forecasting storm structure at 126 hrs, though? I know people here have often praised HWRF for structural predictions in the short term (say within 1-3 days), and that it's one of the best intensity models out there even up to the medium term (somewhat surprisingly)... But I haven't seen much about structure in the medium term, which is even harder to predict than the notoriously challenging intensity forecasts.

So if a storm has already formed and HWRF suggests an EWRC-prone structure in 3 days, that would seem more believable to me, but right now I myself wouldn't place too much weight on this.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I think the HWRF did predict Larry’s broad, endless EWRC structure at 3+ days out. So it’s not impossible for it to predict hurricane structures in the 3-5 day range. Although admittedly the fact that we don’t have a closed TC yet makes these predictions even shakier. We’ll have to see what it says in another day or so.

[Tekken_Guy]

a bit too early to say doom off, models are walking this west more and more each run. Monday we can say for sure

Uh, no, models are trending east at this time.

[BobHarlem]

12z Euro Ensembles are a lot more concentrated and much more right of the 0z ones, no US landfalls at all this time. Trend right/east continues risk for Bermuda going up.

[zzzh]

12z Euro Ensembles are a lot more concentrated and much more right of the 0z ones, no US landfalls at all this time. Trend right/east continues risk for Bermuda going up.

https://i.imgur.com/GDCgJ6k.png

I think there is something wrong with the EC ensemble source, that's not 50 members. Here is the correct version

[OuterBanker]

All 3 HWRF runs have shown a pretty bad structure for intensification at the end of their runs, with an inner eyewall surrounded by lots of bands and partial eyewalls. HWRF could be sniffing out that future Ernesto might be another Larry or Earl, stuck in an endless EWRC attempt that keeps it from taking advantage of an otherwise favorable environment and results in an extremely broad wind field.

You're actually quoting the HWRF. The model that took Debby on a trip along the Fl panhandle?

[Woofde]

All 3 HWRF runs have shown a pretty bad structure for intensification at the end of their runs, with an inner eyewall surrounded by lots of bands and partial eyewalls. HWRF could be sniffing out that future Ernesto might be another Larry or Earl, stuck in an endless EWRC attempt that keeps it from taking advantage of an otherwise favorable environment and results in an extremely broad wind field.

You're actually quoting the HWRF. The model that took Debby on a trip along the Fl panhandle?

Just like every model that exists, the HWRF will miss from time to time. It's still a solid model at the end of the day. It has its place, and that's in hurricane structure and intensity, which is exactly how Aspen was using it.

[aspen]

All 3 HWRF runs have shown a pretty bad structure for intensification at the end of their runs, with an inner eyewall surrounded by lots of bands and partial eyewalls. HWRF could be sniffing out that future Ernesto might be another Larry or Earl, stuck in an endless EWRC attempt that keeps it from taking advantage of an otherwise favorable environment and results in an extremely broad wind field.

You're actually quoting the HWRF. The model that took Debby on a trip along the Fl panhandle?

It’s best used for intensity, structure, and evolution assessments (most reliable within a few days). It’s not great with track, although this run is pretty in-line with the other models.