ATL: EIGHT - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Wow, it does not have to be Helene, as the effects are the same.

 https://x.com/NWSWilmingtonNC/status/1835703106681909384

[chaser1]

I'm in a CDL truck training evening class at CFCC here in Wilmington, and our first highway driving is supposed to be tomorrow evening, really hoping they call it off so my first real on the road training isn't taking place in sheets of rain and high winds

Well, as of now we're still expected to be there, none of us have driven around the practice lot or campus more than a half dozen times, so all I can say is I hope they have good insurance.

Totally NOT the way i'd want to break into my first highway go at big rig highway driving. Good luck!!

[chaser1]

Incredibly high quality video from my sister. Wind and rain now, I think I detected one chair might have moved.

https://i.imgur.com/76bBkuA.gif

Wait, is that a UFO towards the top of the video?

[Powellrm]

Apparently, at Carolina beach they did not cancel schools today…major yikes.

I was going to post more pictures of the flooding but don’t feel like figuring it out. One rain gauge displaying 18” of rainfall at Carolina beach. Very disappointing that schools were not cancelled. Lots of emergency personnel out there.

[Nuno]

My sister is vacationing near the coast. Flooded roadways, lost power. Not a lot of wind, but a lot of grief. PTC worked, she knew about it, called it a tropical storm, no surprises. In my opinion that's exactly how it should work.

Apparently, at Carolina beach they did not cancel schools today…major yikes.

I was going to post more pictures of the flooding but don’t feel like figuring it out. One rain gauge displaying 18” of rainfall at Carolina beach. Very disappointing that schools were not cancelled. Lots of emergency personnel out there.

Thats the problem with not upgrading it. Emergency management will not make declarations unless it is actually declared a TS. This easily could have been upgraded, and we can hand wring all we want about the meteorological aspect and it's minutia but local gov't sadly makes different decisions for the local population based on the arbitrary terms "PTC8" vs "Tropical Storm Helene".

[KPILM]

I'm in a CDL truck training evening class at CFCC here in Wilmington, and our first highway driving is supposed to be tomorrow evening, really hoping they call it off so my first real on the road training isn't taking place in sheets of rain and high winds

Well, as of now we're still expected to be there, none of us have driven around the practice lot or campus more than a half dozen times, so all I can say is I hope they have good insurance.

Totally NOT the way i'd want to break into my first highway go at big rig highway driving. Good luck!!

They texted us about an hour ago and cancelled evening classes, so that was a reprieve from white-knuckling, haha. Thanks!

[Woofde]

My sister is vacationing near the coast. Flooded roadways, lost power. Not a lot of wind, but a lot of grief. PTC worked, she knew about it, called it a tropical storm, no surprises. In my opinion that's exactly how it should work.

Apparently, at Carolina beach they did not cancel schools today…major yikes.

I was going to post more pictures of the flooding but don’t feel like figuring it out. One rain gauge displaying 18” of rainfall at Carolina beach. Very disappointing that schools were not cancelled. Lots of emergency personnel out there.

Thats the problem with not upgrading it. Emergency management will not make declarations unless it is actually declared a TS. This easily could have been upgraded, and we can hand wring all we want about the meteorological aspect and it's minutia but local gov't sadly makes different decisions for the local population based on the arbitrary terms "PTC8" vs "Tropical Storm Helene".

Why can't they make declarations? The messaging for this one was very clear regardless of label (see the graphic below). If our officials aren't looking at impacts and need a label to make decisions, we need new competent ones. I grew up in the northeast and they had no issue cancelling for anything from Tropical Storms, Nor'Easters, Subtropical shenanigans, or any other impactful weather event.

[wxman57]

Bottom line is that a system needs a well-defined closed low-level circulation to qualify as a tropical storm. Lacking that, it's just a tropical disturbance, a weak frontal wave that produced gusty wind and heavy rain. It's not a tropical storm.

[Teban54]

Bottom line is that a system needs a well-defined closed low-level circulation to qualify as a tropical storm. Lacking that, it's just a tropical disturbance, a weak frontal wave that produced gusty wind and heavy rain. It's not a tropical storm.

I think Woofde's point isn't about whether Eight is a TC or STC (it's clearly not, at least not today). It's about whether local officials should adopt new criteria for preparations and response that doesn't rely too heavily on the meteorological definition, so that a PTC with effects similar to a TC can get similar levels of response.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Bottom line is that a system needs a well-defined closed low-level circulation to qualify as a tropical storm. Lacking that, it's just a tropical disturbance, a weak frontal wave that produced gusty wind and heavy rain. It's not a tropical storm.

I think Woofde's point isn't about whether Eight is a TC or STC (it's clearly not, at least not today). It's about whether local officials should adopt new criteria for preparations and response that doesn't rely too heavily on the meteorological definition, so that a PTC with effects similar to a TC can get similar levels of response.

Why limit yourself to PTC? A strong frontal system (such as this one) warrants attention regardless of whether it has the potential for tropical development. You see flash flood warnings from non-tropical systems all the time. And snow, and heat, and all sorts of weather. That this may or may not have become tropical shouldn't change the government response.

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like this will join the short but growing list of failed PTCs. And the wait for Helene continues, maybe for another week or more

[wxman57]

Bottom line is that a system needs a well-defined closed low-level circulation to qualify as a tropical storm. Lacking that, it's just a tropical disturbance, a weak frontal wave that produced gusty wind and heavy rain. It's not a tropical storm.

I think Woofde's point isn't about whether Eight is a TC or STC (it's clearly not, at least not today). It's about whether local officials should adopt new criteria for preparations and response that doesn't rely too heavily on the meteorological definition, so that a PTC with effects similar to a TC can get similar levels of response.

Yeah, I agree. Response plans need to be written so that they handle all severe weather events, whether or not a named storm is involved. The NHC should not have to change the criteria for defining a tropical storm so that emergency management can adequately respond.

[NC George]

Pretty strong impacts in the Wilmington area with US Hwy 17 being washed out, among others.

[Sciencerocks]

[al78]

Bottom line is that a system needs a well-defined closed low-level circulation to qualify as a tropical storm. Lacking that, it's just a tropical disturbance, a weak frontal wave that produced gusty wind and heavy rain. It's not a tropical storm.

I think Woofde's point isn't about whether Eight is a TC or STC (it's clearly not, at least not today). It's about whether local officials should adopt new criteria for preparations and response that doesn't rely too heavily on the meteorological definition, so that a PTC with effects similar to a TC can get similar levels of response.

Yeah, I agree. Response plans need to be written so that they handle all severe weather events, whether or not a named storm is involved. The NHC should not have to change the criteria for defining a tropical storm so that emergency management can adequately respond.

Do they not make decisions based on the wind and rain hazard alone? Surely 20 inches of rain is 20 inches of rain, whether it comes from a tropical cyclone or a tropical disturbance it is going to cause flooding regardless, so why not take the same mitigation action in both cases? Seems illogical to me to decide against doing what should be done purely because it doesn't have a tropical cyclone classification.

[Hammy]

Yet another instance in the long history of Atlantic systems that would've been named if they had another 12 hours over water, seems like it was starting to get better organized right as it moved inland

[tolakram]

Wanted to get this loop saved. What a crazy setup, look at the low level west movement streaming into the east coast.

[mitchell]

Thats the problem with not upgrading it. Emergency management will not make declarations unless it is actually declared a TS.

That's worrisome if decisions are being made more on a basis of whether a storm has been named or upgraded, rather than conditions on the ground. Everyone in the emergency management profession in coastal areas would be aware (I would think) that rainfall amounts, storm surge, lightning, and countless other risk factors do not only occur in named storms or ones that have been upgraded to depression, storm, or hurricane status.

The forecasts for 10+ inches of rain in the impacted area were made, and repeated since 3-4 days ago.

[Sciencerocks]

Yet another instance in the long history of Atlantic systems that would've been named if they had another 12 hours over water, seems like it was starting to get better organized right as it moved inland

has everything to do with the fictional forces of land tighting up the wind field at the surface allowing for the llc to become more defined. I believe this was probably well defined enough to be classed as a subtropical storm last night. It is a question of rate of movement as a system slowing down in the last 8 hours would probably still get the benefits of the convergence + fictional effects but would also have more time over warm water.

[canebeard]

Well, as of now we're still expected to be there, none of us have driven around the practice lot or campus more than a half dozen times, so all I can say is I hope they have good insurance.

Totally NOT the way i'd want to break into my first highway go at big rig highway driving. Good luck!!

They texted us about an hour ago and cancelled evening classes, so that was a reprieve from white-knuckling, haha. Thanks!

Being a past student in a similar school in Florida, I was pretty sure your instructors would cancel this first student highway outing; so as not to die of freight themselves; and to not endanger the public safety.