ATL: LESLIE - Remnants - Discussion

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Sciencerocks
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#41 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Oct 02, 2024 10:36 am

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1841490365288706544


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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#42 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 02, 2024 11:35 am

There is a jump on the frames and that is caused as the outage is over, the new frames are in.

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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#43 Postby HurricaneAndre2008 » Wed Oct 02, 2024 11:54 am

cycloneye wrote:There is a jump on the frames and that is caused as the outage is over, the new frames are in.

https://i.imgur.com/iNKCMhJ.gif

Looking like a TS now
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#44 Postby HurricaneAndre2008 » Wed Oct 02, 2024 11:54 am

When will ASCAT be over TD13?
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#45 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 02, 2024 1:45 pm

No upgrade yet.

AL, 13, 2024100218, , BEST, 0, 105N, 293W, 30, 1006, TD
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#46 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Oct 02, 2024 2:32 pm

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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#47 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 02, 2024 3:46 pm

From 5 PM discussion.

The intensity guidance then proceeds to show the
intensity plateauing after 72 hours as the system could encounter
the edge of Hurricane Kirk's large area of ocean upwelling. Both
HAFS-A/B show this potentially limiting the intensity in the longer
term, but the NHC intensity forecast could be conservative if TD13
ends up tracking further south than forecasted.
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#48 Postby msbee » Wed Oct 02, 2024 7:40 pm

Is it forecast to turn?
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#49 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 02, 2024 7:49 pm

msbee wrote: Is it forecast to turn?


Yes, You dont have to worry in St Maarten.
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#50 Postby floridasun » Wed Oct 02, 2024 8:02 pm

looking at ensemble this maybe close call northern leedward islands by geps and gefs
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#51 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 02, 2024 8:05 pm

Breaking News: Best Track upgrades to Tropical Storm Leslie


AL, 13, 2024100300, , BEST, 0, 104N, 298W, 35, 1005, TS
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion: Breaking News: 00z Best Track upgrades to TS Leslie

#52 Postby weeniepatrol » Wed Oct 02, 2024 8:18 pm

uhhhh

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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion: Breaking News: 00z Best Track upgrades to TS Leslie

#53 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Oct 02, 2024 8:28 pm

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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion: Breaking News: 00z Best Track upgrades to TS Leslie

#54 Postby WaveBreaking » Wed Oct 02, 2024 8:32 pm

weeniepatrol wrote:uhhhh

https://i.imgur.com/xgijEqV.png



How did it manage to form a cyan ring while getting sandblasted by Kirk all its life… :eek:
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion: Breaking News: 00z Best Track upgrades to TS Leslie

#55 Postby aspen » Wed Oct 02, 2024 8:32 pm

weeniepatrol wrote:uhhhh

https://i.imgur.com/xgijEqV.png

So that’s why the HWRF/HAFS keep trying to make it a hurricane despite being stuck under Kirk’s outflow for 3 days lol
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion: Breaking News: 00z Best Track upgrades to TS Leslie

#56 Postby Teban54 » Wed Oct 02, 2024 8:35 pm

What is that? Convection firing along a possible developing eyewall of what's officially a tropical depression, at 30W in October, while blasted by outflow from another storm that jumped from Cat 1 to Cat 3 in three hours and became the easternmost MH in MDR in October?

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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion: Breaking News: 00z Best Track upgrades to TS Leslie

#57 Postby zzzh » Wed Oct 02, 2024 8:44 pm

Not quite an eyewall imo
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion: Breaking News: 00z Best Track upgrades to TS Leslie

#58 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Oct 02, 2024 8:46 pm

WaveBreaking wrote:
weeniepatrol wrote:uhhhh

https://i.imgur.com/xgijEqV.png



How did it manage to form a cyan ring while getting sandblasted by Kirk all its life… :eek:


Between Beryl and this system, it seems like a somewhat recurring theme this season is storms that simply refuse to falter due to shear alone
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion: Breaking News: 00z Best Track upgrades to TS Leslie

#59 Postby Hammy » Wed Oct 02, 2024 9:00 pm

WaveBreaking wrote:
weeniepatrol wrote:uhhhh

https://i.imgur.com/xgijEqV.png



How did it manage to form a cyan ring while getting sandblasted by Kirk all its life… :eek:


Looking at satellite at least, it looks like a combination of divergent flow, plenty of moisture, and much of the shear being upper level rather than mid-level
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#60 Postby msbee » Wed Oct 02, 2024 9:13 pm

cycloneye wrote:
msbee wrote: Is it forecast to turn?


Yes, You dont have to worry in St Maarten.


Thanks, Luis. Hope it stays away from everyone.
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