ATL: MILTON - Models

[otowntiger]

Closer look at the 0z GFS.

https://i.imgur.com/qObS9Js.gif

Is there a graphic at that scale that shows the predicted winds?

[weeniepatrol]

uhhh.. WTF is this GFS run

[BobHarlem]

0z CMC, Naples

[SFLcane]

00z CMC also into Naples..

[caneseddy]

Very interesting how the majority of the models have landfall around Wednesday morning and the CMC has been the only one to say Friday landfall. I wonder what the model is seeing that the others aren’t

[jhpigott]

Will the hurricane models start running in the 0z suite?

[SFLcane]

Sure..

[weeniepatrol]

Sure..

https://i.postimg.cc/3NYmQWKq/IMG-9559.gif

Just your usual 40mb run-to-run variance.

Within 3 days btw

Edit: four* days

[StPeteMike]

Looks like the difference is the ridging behind the trough. ICON and Canadian says the ridge builds in pretty quick behind the trough and pushes Milton further south while GFS says it takes a little longer for the ridge to build in.

[MetroMike]

All these wild swings from the GFS today,cannot be trusted at this time.

[Zonacane]

Closer look at the 0z GFS.

https://i.imgur.com/qObS9Js.gif

Just about the worst case for a catastrophic storm surge event in Tampa

[otowntiger]

Sure..

https://i.postimg.cc/3NYmQWKq/IMG-9559.gif

Yeah, GFS has been pretty inconsistent- next run could very well be way different- could be back to a weak TD in a whole new location, who knows?

[Teban54]

I could tell a bonkers run before even seeing the comments or checking the runs, when I saw that 1.5 pages of comments had been made in 1 hour.

[Flwxguy86]

I really hope the GFS is just spitting this out and comes back down to earth tomorrow, Not only is Tampa still cleaning up from Helene, but we are not prepared for this kinda storm, Nobody is but especially Tampa/Pinellas county. I am actually in Pinellas county right at the top of Tampa bay in Oldsmar, This would be a worst case scenario for me personally, All that water would head this direction and also towards safety harbor. Who knows though, We haven't seen a major hurricane, not even really a direct hit since 1921. That streak has to end some day, I just hope it isn't as a cat 4 or 5. We'd probably honestly be pretty screwed with a 3 if I am being completely honest.

[NDG]

I guess no NHC tropical models were run tonight, they should had been coming out by now.

[SFLcane]

[Fancy1002]

https://i.postimg.cc/2SrWq1h8/IMG-1577.jpg

How did you get that so early, I’m still at 48 hours on tropical tidbits for the fast version

[caneseddy]

00z runs tonight:

GFS: Tampa Bay Wednesday morning
Euro: Fort Myers Wednesday morning
CMC: Naples Friday morning
Icon: Naples Wednesday morning

Let’s see what 6z shows. Hard to bet against Icon with its performance so far in the Gulf but we will see. Not buying the GFS bomb that far north yet. The positive in this is that it will be quick mover where by Wednesday night it’s already crossed the state to the Atlantic

[NFLnut]

Don’t think your getting a major in 2-3 days or whatever the gfs is showing there. That looks silly.

Agree!

While not impossible, I don't see an almost-Cat4 hitting Tampa in 96-ish/108 hours! NHC isn't even hinting at a Hurricane and we are within their famous 5 day cone. I think the GFS is smoking crack with these runs.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Don’t think your getting a major in 2-3 days or whatever the gfs is showing there. That looks silly.

Agree!

While not impossible, I don't see an almost-Cat4 hitting Tampa in 96-ish/108 hours! NHC isn't even hinting at a Hurricane and we are within their famous 5 day cone. I think the GFS is smoking crack with these runs.

In an era where RI is becoming more and more common, no point in just ruling these scenarios out before the storm even forms. We even have ensembles backing this up as well. Runs like that one are a reminder to prepare for the worst but hope for the best. Helene was a lesson, use it.