ATL: RAFAEL - Models

[Blown Away]

18z GFS… Significant E bump near SW FL coast…

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS loop, closer to the peninsula for sure:

[gatorcane]

EC-AIFS loop:

[Nimbus]

18Z ICON tracking closer to the west coast of Florida than 12Z similar to the GFS shift.
Friday isn't that far off so this is getting concerning.

[3090]

I’m really having trouble believing the hurricane models intensities in the Gulf of a Cat 4 or 5. I think a weakening Cat 2 or 3 moving north into the Gulf is possible. The environment in the Gulf just doesn’t look as good as it was when Milton formed a month ago. I’m thinking right now a Cat 1 into Cuba weakening to a moderate TS upon hitting the northern Gulf coast. I’m still not buying the stall and drift west to Louisiana.

A drift? Where then do you say it will go?

[3090]

Shear tendency dropping right now.

https://i.imgur.com/75q1nD5.png

And the gap is there for 97 to hit SELA.

[jhpigott]

Are the hurricane models running for PTC18 for the 18z model cycle? Didn't see them up on Tropical Tidbits

[chaser1]

Are the hurricane models running for PTC18 for the 18z model cycle? Didn't see them up on Tropical Tidbits

I was thinking the same thing. Got home from work and went to check the Hurricane regionals first. None were there. Perhaps they'll show up at 0Z?

[Jr0d]

Are the hurricane models running for PTC18 for the 18z model cycle? Didn't see them up on Tropical Tidbits

I was thinking the same thing. Got home from work and went to check the Hurricane regionals first. None were there. Perhaps they'll show up at 0Z?

Check weathernerds. They post as they run....last i checked maybe the trend seemed weaker and slightly further east but just saw a few snips so I may be way off.
https://www.weathernerds.org/models/hwrf01.html

[Jr0d]

GFS is trending for a solid Anti-Cyclone in the N GoM
Chances increasing for a Cat 1 or higher before landfall

I'm not seeing any upper high over the Gulf in the GFS after tomorrow. Just a digging trof and increasing SW shear.

Crosspost from discussion thread

I was thinking sheared TS yesterday, but after seeing the hurricane model runs, I am increasingly concerned about intensity.

It is tough for me to ignore my location bias, but I do not see how the models are taking this so far west after Cuba. Could they be struggling because of the time of the year?

Here is the 200mb wind forecast from the NAM for 00Z Tuesday and 36 hours later, 12Z Wednesday, NAM and EURO There seems to be a ULAC, but with I don't see how it can go past 85 W with that steering pattern...I would think it would be taking the storm North to Northeast by Wednesday morning.

[3090]

GFS is trending for a solid Anti-Cyclone in the N GoM
Chances increasing for a Cat 1 or higher before landfall

I'm not seeing any upper high over the Gulf in the GFS after tomorrow. Just a digging trof and increasing SW shear.

Crosspost from discussion thread
I would say the NHC does an excellent job of a forecast track within 5 days!

I was thinking sheared TS yesterday, but after seeing the hurricane model runs, I am increasingly concerned about intensity.

It is tough for me to ignore my location bias, but I do not see how the models are taking this so far west after Cuba. Could they be struggling because of the time of the year?

Here is the 200mb wind forecast from the NAM for 00Z Tuesday and 36 hours later, 12Z Wednesday, NAM and EURO There seems to be a ULAC, but with I don't see how it can go past 85 W with that steering pattern...I would think it would be taking the storm North to Northeast by Wednesday morning.

https://i.ibb.co/X2KCwDt/nam-uv200-watl-11.png

https://i.ibb.co/6bR0588/nam-uv200-watl-25.png

https://i.ibb.co/gFjqqFz/ecmwf-uv200-watl-27.png

[3090]

I'm not seeing any upper high over the Gulf in the GFS after tomorrow. Just a digging trof and increasing SW shear.

Crosspost from discussion thread

I was thinking sheared TS yesterday, but after seeing the hurricane model runs, I am increasingly concerned about intensity.

It is tough for me to ignore my location bias, but I do not see how the models are taking this so far west after Cuba. Could they be struggling because of the time of the year?

Here is the 200mb wind forecast from the NAM for 00Z Tuesday and 36 hours later, 12Z Wednesday, NAM and EURO There seems to be a ULAC, but with I don't see how it can go past 85 W with that steering pattern...I would think it would be taking the storm North to Northeast by Wednesday morning.

https://i.ibb.co/X2KCwDt/nam-uv200-watl-11.png

https://i.ibb.co/6bR0588/nam-uv200-watl-25.png

https://i.ibb.co/gFjqqFz/ecmwf-uv200-watl-27.png

I would say the NHC does an excellent job of a forecast track within 5 days!

[ronjon]

I think future Rafael will track further east than current NHC forecast. Just seems it being November that climotologically the storm would track closer to 18z GFS and 12z Euro-AI. I know high pressure is supposed to build in aloft to steer the storm more NW per the operational Euro so we'll see which solution pans out. I do not believe the storm will get as strong as the hurricane models are showing. Thinking still CAT 1 or TS in GOM based on environment and globals not doing much with it.

[toad strangler]

Crosspost from discussion thread

I was thinking sheared TS yesterday, but after seeing the hurricane model runs, I am increasingly concerned about intensity.

It is tough for me to ignore my location bias, but I do not see how the models are taking this so far west after Cuba. Could they be struggling because of the time of the year?

Here is the 200mb wind forecast from the NAM for 00Z Tuesday and 36 hours later, 12Z Wednesday, NAM and EURO There seems to be a ULAC, but with I don't see how it can go past 85 W with that steering pattern...I would think it would be taking the storm North to Northeast by Wednesday morning.

https://i.ibb.co/X2KCwDt/nam-uv200-watl-11.png

https://i.ibb.co/6bR0588/nam-uv200-watl-25.png

https://i.ibb.co/gFjqqFz/ecmwf-uv200-watl-27.png

I would say the NHC does an excellent job of a forecast track within 5 days!

Agree. I would be very surprised if 18 deviates from this cone in any significant way.

[Jr0d]

Crosspost from discussion thread

I was thinking sheared TS yesterday, but after seeing the hurricane model runs, I am increasingly concerned about intensity.

It is tough for me to ignore my location bias, but I do not see how the models are taking this so far west after Cuba. Could they be struggling because of the time of the year?

Here is the 200mb wind forecast from the NAM for 00Z Tuesday and 36 hours later, 12Z Wednesday, NAM and EURO There seems to be a ULAC, but with I don't see how it can go past 85 W with that steering pattern...I would think it would be taking the storm North to Northeast by Wednesday morning.

https://i.ibb.co/X2KCwDt/nam-uv200-watl-11.png

https://i.ibb.co/6bR0588/nam-uv200-watl-25.png

https://i.ibb.co/gFjqqFz/ecmwf-uv200-watl-27.png

I would say the NHC does an excellent job of a forecast track within 5 days!

No doubt.

Their 1st advisory has been great this season. However late season storms tend to be more difficult to forecast. If they can more or less nail this one from the 1st advisory again, that will be truly impressive.

That said, I still dont think it gets past 85W as any more than a weakening tropical storm or remnant low.

.

[Tailgater33]

I think the NHC is aware it’s November, they don’t have it hitting Se Louisiana

[kevin]

00z, Nov 4, hurricane model blend

--- Model peak intensity ---
HWRF = 964mb/100kt
HMON 971mb/101kt
HAFS-A= 946mb/105kt
HAFS-B = 953mb/101kt

--- Hurricane model blend ---

It should be noted that there is a higher-than-average uncertainty in this hurricane model blend. PTC18 is forecast to become a nameable system within the coming hours. Afterwards its intensity will gradually increase and the hurricane models are in good agreement that it will reach category 1 intensity within 48 hours. Short-term track is still uncertain with some models showing a landfall over Jamaica. Depending on the exact track and background conditions, the intensity at the Cuba landfall differs strongly. HWRF and HMON show a (high-end) category 1 hurricane landfall, while the HAFS models show RI to a category 3 MH before Cuba. Either way, the models show that the lowest pressure during PTC18s life will most likely be reached before Cuba (at +60/+66 hrs). Afterwards, the models also strongly disagree how long it takes PTC18 to reorganize with the HAFS models showing very quick restrengthening while HWRF/HMON are less aggressive. Weirdly, all models show a brief but very intense period of RI around 96 - 108 hrs and have PTC18 reach its peak strength of 90 - 105 kt during this time period. Models like HWRF and HAFS-B show a very atypical asymmetrical structure during this time period so I don't know how realistic the secondary peak is. Either way, the models then all show very fast weakening of PTC18 before it reaches the US.

Blend
PEAK: 961 mb @ 60 hrs | 108 kt @ 98 hrs
ACE (0 - 126 hrs) = 10.6
hr / pressure (mb) / wind (kt)
00 / 1001 / 31
06 / 999 / 40 - TS
12 / 1000 / 43
18 / 997 / 47
24 / 993 / 48
30 / 988 / 58
36 / 986 / 55
42 / 980 / 70 - C1
48 / 976 / 68
54 / 967 / 75
60 / 961 / 89 - C2
66 / 970 / 75
72 / 972 / 81
78 / 970 / 81
84 / 970 / 82
90 / 975 / 68
96 / 975 / 76
102 / 973 / 83
108 / 971 / 98 - C3
114 / 982 / 74
120 / 992 / 57
126 / 997 / 43

--- Previous blend analyses ---

-

[xironman]

GFS showing 18 keeping its moisture envelope a bit better. I remember that with Milton originally it was going to fall apart because of the dry air but that lessened over time.



I think it is dry air, sure there is shear but it is not super destructive, the worst is 22kt and the storm is moving with it

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
SHEAR (KT) 9 9 7 3 3 4 11 15 22 17 18 19 23 28 46 48 77

[Nimbus]

GFS showing 18 keeping its moisture envelope a bit better. I remember that with Milton originally it was going to fall apart because of the dry air but that lessened over time.

https://i.imgur.com/xvKKLA2.gif

I think it is dry air, sure there is shear but it is not super destructive, the worst is 22kt and the storm is moving with it

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
SHEAR (KT) 9 9 7 3 3 4 11 15 22 17 18 19 23 28 46 48 77

That probably means the troughing or ridge weakness is modeled with less intensity this run.
That would tend to track whatever storm center is there at 60 hours further west into the northern gulf coast.

[Stormlover70]

You meant east right. Look at the latest model tendicices... thinking big bend area..