ATL: SARA - Models

[Hypercane_Kyle]

99L's ultimate strength is tied to how far east/west it consolidates. Seems to me the GFS is mostly an outlier and too far east.

[Jxdama]

99L's ultimate strength is tied to how far east/west it consolidates. Seems to me the GFS is mostly an outlier and too far east.

i agree, i think a few minor tweaks would push it right into central america like the euro/cmc shows. regardless, the GFS is relentless in bombing out, moving thru the channel and impacting florida, we'll see if it's right

[gatorcane]

Yikes GFS ensemble:

[SFLcane]

18 GEFS all into SfL..

[Travorum]

99L's ultimate strength is tied to how far east/west it consolidates. Seems to me the GFS is mostly an outlier and too far east.

Should GFS continue to be an outlier, tomorrow's recon will provide a good litmus test on which model is more aligned with ground truth. The first flight is scheduled to be on station tomorrow at 1900z, when the GFS has 99L at 1005-1004mb just south of Jamaica and the Euro/CMC have it at >1010mb and little further west. Recon finding a deeper and more closed circulation closer to Jamaica could lend some credence to the GFS solution, finding a broader or shallower or more westward circulation could support a weaker solution into Central America.

[toad strangler]

Have a hard time believing a 970 mb cane into Cedar Key during 3rd week of November per 18z GFS. Seems S FL to the Keys would be more likely destination given the time of year.

It’s 2024. Throw climatology out the window. No?

[chaser1]

Unfortunately it seems like no hurricane model runs this cycle for some reason. Darn.

I wasn't sure they would have run an 18z. model run on such a short fuse. No worries, I'll be happy to check their 0Z cycle

[TheAustinMan]

While I can't post a graphic at present since it's only available on paid sites at the moment, the 18z ECMWF has 99L organizing into a tropical depression on about Thursday and keeps it much farther offshore Honduras compared to the 12z rendition. It's a major hurricane in the model Sunday and in the process of recurving northward east of the Yucatan on Monday afternoon on the model. Based on the 947 mb pressure, it's roughly a Category 4 hurricane at that point.

[SconnieCane]

Shooting the Yucatan Channel into the Gulf at 946 mb..starting the turn towards the Florida Peninsula at 174 hrs...949 mb..looks like Big Bend area is target this run.

Cue John Hurt in his cameo in Spaceballs as the alien starts to burst out of his chest..."Oh no, not again!"

[chaser1]

99L's ultimate strength is tied to how far east/west it consolidates. Seems to me the GFS is mostly an outlier and too far east.

Should GFS continue to be an outlier, tomorrow's recon will provide a good litmus test on which model is more aligned with ground truth. The first flight is scheduled to be on station tomorrow at 1900z, when the GFS has 99L at 1005-1004mb just south of Jamaica and the Euro/CMC have it at >1010mb and little further west. Recon finding a deeper and more closed circulation closer to Jamaica could lend some credence to the GFS solution, finding a broader or shallower or more westward circulation could support a weaker solution into Central America.

I have to admit, I think the GFS may be a bit to fast to
consolidate but especially overly fast to reach sub 960 mb. Whether that alone results in a more west motion over time will be interesting to see

[ineedsnow]

While I can't post a graphic at present since it's only available on paid sites at the moment, the 18z ECMWF has 99L organizing into a tropical depression on about Thursday and keeps it much farther offshore Honduras compared to the 12z rendition. It's a major hurricane in the model Sunday and in the process of recurving northward east of the Yucatan on Monday afternoon on the model. Based on the 947 mb pressure, it's roughly a Category 4 hurricane at that point.

Ya 18z is a beast

[SFLcane]

[SFLcane]

And there goes your land interaction.. personally I’d side any day with the Gefs/eps over an experimental model.

[Travorum]

00z SHIPS model, not much change from 18z. Still on a knife’s edge with SHIPS on land interaction:

[cycloneye]

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Evening

As some are referring the GFS as the outlier and this may be true. But that temporary high presseure that will build over Florida, will be key how far west future Sara gets, before it heads back East or ENE. I still feel uncomfortable that it does not get as far north as some models show. No matter how you look at it, this is not good for any of us in Florida.

[SFLcane]

18z ECMWF upgraded today goes to 144 now…

[Jr0d]

Here are the current Ensemble from the EURO and GFS for next Thursday 0Z(Wednesday night for Florida)

It is looking more likely Florida will get a piece if not a lot more of whatever develops.

GEFS:


EURO:

[Travorum]

Take it with a grain of salt as its a private/commercial model and its not clear how well it has verified in the past, but here's the 00z GRAF. It takes 99L further west before stalling but keeps it north of Honduras allowing for intensification; in this regard it seems most in line with ICON and 18z Euro right now. The model doesn't run far enough out but my guess is that going this far west would make land interaction with the Yucatan more likely.

 https://x.com/jnelsonWJCL/status/1856527802801287640

[caneseddy]

00z Icon landfalls a strong TS/Cat 1 into Belize/Mexico border…crossing Yucatán into GOM..run finishes as a TD heading towards Panhandle