ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[skyline385]

 https://x.com/supercane7/status/1807125673229836446

[bohai]

This is the long-term forecast from the AUS-SAT NWS. Interesting about the H shifting eastward and a front coming down.

Upper-level ridging will be centered over the South Central US
Monday, shifting to the east slowly through late week. High
temperatures will remain in the 90s and triple digits this upcoming
week with lows in the 70s to low 80s. Humidity will continue to be
highest in areas along and east of I-35 where additional Heat
Advisories are likely for most days due to high heat indices. Dry
weather will be the normal with only some low end shower and isolated
thunderstorm chances over the coastal plains due to the seabreeze.
The best chances for this will be on Wednesday. A trough may move
into the southern Plains Friday night into Saturday with a front
forecast to approach the area next weekend. There remains a lot of
uncertainty in the details of this system, so have continued with a
mainly dry forecast on Saturday per the NBM.

[CrazyC83]

Some models are showing this falling apart after it passes Jamaica, Has a large storm EVER just died in that area leading into the gulf?

Wind shear is expected to increase significantly in the central Caribbean. Unless it stays very low in latitude, it should hit that wall of shear around 75W.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/MatthewCappucci/status/1807138913967862025

[skyline385]

Beryl is primed and ready to go

[Craters]

Tropical Storm #Beryl is getting a huge boost from an Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) to its north today, with outflow rapidly expanding radially outward into the poleward outflow channel created by the TUTT.

This exceptionally favorable upper-level environment coupled w/ record warm SSTs, very high oceanic heat content, & a developing eyewall (via 12z AMSU pass), all point to an impending period of rapid-very rapid intensification w/ #Beryl.

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1807084722901889041

Ah! So! Here is definition of this Acronym. There are several others....

I recently turned a friend on to this site, told them it tends to become very"technical" when discussing a PTC, and then realized that it is quite a learning curve to figure out what all the acronyms mean.


Are they all listed out and defined somewhere so I can send that link to my friend? TIA

Here's another one for you, Michele: https://stormw.wordpress.com/abbreviations/

[tolakram]

latest


source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[Hurricane2022]

latest
https://i.imgur.com/F9AhPsP.png

source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Here we gooo DMAX!!!

[IsabelaWeather]

Beryl is primed and ready to go

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240629/dad04f8205dc98e0bcefceb4d661a6f3.jpg

Nice core, looks like its directly under the cold cloud tops when you take the microwave position and look at IR

[Hurricane2022]

Habemus Hurricane Beryl!

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 15SE 15SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 49.3W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 48.5W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 10.6N 51.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 11.3N 55.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 12.0N 58.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 13.1N 62.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.3N 66.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

[zzzh]

NHC issuing advisories for the Atlantic on Hurricane Beryl

[wx98]

Pretty remarkable for a June system to intensify to a hurricane in just 24 hours after classification. Would expect this to continue over the next 72 hours as it makes a run to Cat 3. Although I wouldn’t say it’s likely yet, don’t count out a low-end Cat 4.

[Buck]

I’ve seen many Beryls in my day, but this one feels like it could be historic.

[weeniepatrol]

I’ve seen many Beryls in my day, but this one feels like it could be historic.

Already is.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1807152153745674330

#Beryl is now a #hurricane - the farthest east that a hurricane has formed in the tropical Atlantic (<=23.5°N) in June on record, breaking the old record set in 1933.

[BobHarlem]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1807153479330226239




Referring to the 1933 Trinidad Hurricane.

[Category5Kaiju]

I’ve seen many Beryls in my day, but this one feels like it could be historic.

I mean, there's a non-zero possibility that this will be the last Beryl to roam through the Atlantic Ocean.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Is it too early to say that this could be ‘07 Dean’s younger sister?

[CrazyC83]

All systems are a go now.

I see no reason why this can't reach even up to category 4.

[MarioProtVI]

This is a black flag at this point.

[al78]

I was just thinking of the last hurricane Beryl in 2018 which formed in the MDR about a week later than this one and was far less notable. If the MDR is capable of spawning a cat 3 at the end of June or beginning of July well before it normally comes into season, what will it be capable of in late August/September?