ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[BobHarlem]

Milton's Creepy skull form:

[Meteorcane]

Didn't see any comments about this insane dropsonde drop that just came in

https://i.imgur.com/weIuqhr.png

Data is from an hour and a half ago

What is this indicative of, though?

Bumping this from earlier, I'd like to know what that means too? I've just started reading into those charts but the temp doesn't change with height here. Insane winds throughout the column as well?

As a aside, I was reading some of the Wilma thread and noticed many were fearful for Tampa around the day before she exploded. Some users from Tampa, I don't see posting anymore.

This is an instrument (dropsonde) that is dropped from the aircraft that measures temperature (red line) and dewpoint (green line), wind (the barbs on the right side), and pressure as it falls through the atmosphere and transmits the data back. The temperature and humidity can be useful to show saturation (not particularly useful for the eyewall since naturally the whole profile will typically be saturated in heavy rain)... but can be useful for the eye sounding as it can show if there is significant drying and/or warming due to subsidence in the eye.

The wind estimates (which are derived rom GPS) are instantaneous measurements of winds (so technicallymore representative of gusts than the longer-time averaged flight-lvl winds) through the lower atmosphere. They can be useful to see the degree of momentum transfer within the eyewall and are another data point NHC can use (along with the flight-lvl winds and SFMR estimates) to determine what winds to go with for their advisory. But as I mentioned it only measures the instantaneous winds as the sonde descends towards the surface so it may not be representative of the 1 minute sustained winds the NHC uses as their measurement.

Also the ones they drop in the eye are useful for giving a more robust estimate of the central pressure of the storm than the extrapolated measurements they get from the aircraft.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks to be wobbling back to the NHC path and possibly a bit left of path if it continues

[Craters]

We just had an X1.8 earth facing flare with a full halo CME....

For those keeping up with that type of thing

Got a depiction Godess?

An AMAZING one actually!

https://imgur.com/a/lw40jq7

Here's a good overview site for this sort of thing, if you're interested: https://spaceweather.com/. Good aurora info, plus updates on comets when they show up. (A REAL good one next week, for instance.) As you might suspect from the website's name, though, the main emphasis is on space weather, which is essentially solar activity.

[Soluna16]

Pretty solid north wobble right now, looks to be almost inline with the NHC consensus again.

[Bocadude85]

Looks to be wobbling back to the NHC path and possibly a bit left of path if it continues

He needs to cross 86W at 24N to maintain the current NHC track, let’s see what longitude Milton crosses 24N

[Abdullah]

saved loop
https://i.imgur.com/xecDWYh.gif

I think Milton has gotten a bit smaller.

The full Milton
https://i.imgur.com/q2LB7qM.gif

These loops look really nice, where do you get them from?

[Exalt]

Eye is warming.

https://imgur.com/uSvfunX

I have a soft spot for buzzsaws, love a good symmetrical cane..

[PDKlikatino]

Someone tell Milton to stop intensifying!!! Every time he weakens a little bit, he seems to shrink and get even stronger. Is it reasonable to assume he's going to break his previous peak intensity in the next few hours?

[sasha_B]

Someone tell Milton to stop intensifying!!! Every time he weakens a little bit, he seems to shrink and get even stronger. Is it reasonable to assume he's going to break his previous peak intensity in the next few hours?

It's hardly a forgone conclusion, but I don't think it's impossible. At the very least Milton getting back below 905 hPa seems like it's on the table, based on ADT. Will be interesting indeed to see what recon finds at the center.

[grapealcoholic]

Trough interaction beginning. If we were to get a full -80c circle, it would be soon

[HurricaneAndre2008]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.6 / 901.0mb/158.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.4 7.6 7.6

[grapealcoholic]

HAFS-B initialized at 894 and peaking at 883.

[REDHurricane]

Milton's about to show us what he's really got over the next hour or two -- assuming it's somewhere around 901mb right now, if those -80º cloud tops can wrap all the way around the center (a big if) then I feel like sub-890mb is not out of the question

[Exalt]

HAFS-B initialized at 894 and peaking at 883.

With the way it's bombing out, that is horrifying yet completely possible. Dear lord.

[Soluna16]

Hurricane models all seem to be going into the low 880s on the 0z runs yikes

[Highteeld]

Dvorak signature is taking off again. Looked like it was weakening for a few hours there. Not so much now.

[Highteeld]

Clear T 7.5 right now. Would imply 155 knots surface winds.

[Abdullah]

Is the AF300 Mission #18 going to give us the next center fixes? Or will it do dropsonde upper-air level mapping?

[KirbyDude25]

Is the AF300 Mission #18 going to give us the next center fixes? Or will it do dropsonde upper-air level mapping?

Center fixes, I believe it's only NOAA that runs upper-level missions