ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[hurricaneCW]

Looks like a pretty big jump to the NW. That's good because it might not travel over the narrowest, flattest part of PR, and will have less time in the Gulf to organize.

Won't make a difference because it's still so broad and disorganized. If it were a well organized storm then sure.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1819696918101918159

[GCANE]

I still believe once this system gets out into the Gulf ALL earlier intensity forecasts and future track cones go out the window. It sure is moving slow.

The Bermuda high is strong, but is Four going to miss the dip in the jet stream that’s supposed to pick it up and steer it north/NE?

The bad thing about the trof is that it has a Anti-cyclonic Rossby Wave Break to its SE; i.e. in the East GoM.
Debby could significantly strengthen due to this.

[Sciencerocks]

[REDHurricane]

It's moving almost due north now, both GFS/Euro have it entering the Gulf around 23.1ºN, 81ºW so I'll be watching that over the next 6-12 hours

[hurricaneCW]

Shear is so low across the Caribbean & Gulf right now. Scary if that continues this season.

Only thing holding this back is land, SSTs are near record highs

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

AL, 04, 2024080312, , BEST, 0, 223N, 815W, 25, 1009, TD

[Jr0d]

Am I seeing this right?

The depression seems to have found the narrowest and fairly flat portion of Cuba to cross, however this is less of an issue with the depression still having a relatively broad low and circulation. It also seems to be moving more northwest now, but that is difficult to tell because how disorganized the center is.

Hoping it continues to stay ragged and underperforms.

Here in Key West we have sustained winds near 20kts with the sun out, and had gusts near 30kts in the squalls early this morning. It is looking mostly clear on the radar for the next few hours, but I do expect deteriorating conditions by this afternoon as I expect the storm to really start consolidating once it clears Cuba.

Even though we are 'only' under a watch, I do think tropical storm conditions are likely later tonight.

[CronkPSU]

12z Best Track:

AL, 04, 2024080312, , BEST, 0, 223N, 815W, 25, 1009, TD

https://i.imgur.com/TAHvZtw.png

Well obvious from that the turn northward has begun

[boca]

The trough is still pushing slowly south which is now starting to influence the depression with the NW turn.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Starting to have banding setting up, especially to the north of the system.

[hipshot]

12z Best Track:

AL, 04, 2024080312, , BEST, 0, 223N, 815W, 25, 1009, TD

https://i.imgur.com/TAHvZtw.png

Well obvious from that the turn northward has begun

I'll bet we can get a good look from the radar out of Havana, anyone have a source?

[GCANE]

12z Best Track:

AL, 04, 2024080312, , BEST, 0, 223N, 815W, 25, 1009, TD

https://i.imgur.com/TAHvZtw.png

Well obvious from that the turn northward has begun

I'll bet we can get a good look from the radar out of Havana, anyone have a source?

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

[GCANE]

Well obvious from that the turn northward has begun

I'll bet we can get a good look from the radar out of Havana, anyone have a source?

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

Havana doesn't seem to be up.

Here's another station

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

[tropicwatch]

[DunedinDave]

Looks like a due north movement to me but it’s hard to tell.

[xironman]

[quote="cycloneye"]12z Best Track:

AL, 04, 2024080312, , BEST, 0, 223N, 815W, 25, 1009, TD

It needs a shift northwest. The low level spin is very obvious on the visible. Should exit around Matanzas this afternoon.

[NDG]

Got some consolidation to do, MLC is to the SSE of it.

[DunedinDave]

Got some consolidation to do, MLC is to the SSE of it.

https://i.imgur.com/xXkRxNy.gif

If that red x is the center then the storm is on the right side of the NHC forecast. NHC map shows it should be in the Gulf of Batabano.

[aspen]

Got some consolidation to do, MLC is to the SSE of it.

https://i.imgur.com/xXkRxNy.gif

It’s going to be very interesting to see where 04L eventually consolidates. Land interaction with the GAs can cause the center of a disorganized storm to refocus on the coastline (ex: Isaias over Hispaniola), and I think we could see that sometime in the next 12-18 hours, but the question is where. The hurricane models have the center jump north of Cuba and put it over the Keys within 12 hours, but IMO that seems like an extreme jump when the MLC is still on the southern side of Cuba.

Maybe the hurricane models are right and we see both the LLC and MLC get dragged rapidly north. Maybe they’re wrong and we see the LLC get dragged towards the MLC. Hard to say at the moment.