ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

Looks like dry air and shear have totally eroded the western side of Ernesto’s core, just like how the hurricane models had been forecasting for a few days.

[Steejo91]

Have to hand it to the Hurricane Models over the last several days that have been showing the dry air wreaking havoc on the core of Ernesto. Thankfully this saves me money from buying a plane ticket to Bermuda to chase this cane. Dry air has certainly been a key player in disrupting any chances for RI this year as these systems have trekked through otherwise very favorable conditions for rapid intensification.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/DRmetwatch/status/1824449548443426946

[Sciencerocks]

[MGC]

Shear is good news for Bermuda. With a 50 mile eye it will be difficult for Ernesto to miss a visit to the Swizzle Inn on Bermuda.....MGC

[kevin]

First recon pass, 966.9 mb with 9 kt FL, supports 966 mb. Peak FL winds so far 87 kt in the weaker looking western side of the storm.

[Hurricane2022]

Baroclinic support?

[kevin]

969 mb / 14 kt eyedrop supports 967 - 968 mb. 95 kt FL is sufficient to maintain the current 85 kt intensity. Could be nudged down to 80 kt using a blend with the 76 kt SFMR, but I expect them to keep it at 85 kt since such a broad system suffers more significantly from undersampling during recon.

[Teban54]

IR is making a comeback after the disastrous scene this morning. Looks like Ernesto may still try to strengthen a bit more on approach to Bermuda.

[kevin]

Probably the best Ernesto has looked so far, the eye is also becoming more pronounced on VIS. And of course that happens during a period of increased shear compared to the last 48 hrs , this TC really has a mind of its own.

[kevin]

Looks like Ernesto's improved structure is also (finally) translating in terms of a more intense hurricane. Latest recon pass has found 107 kt FL winds in the SE quadrant and also a very large region with 95+ kt FL winds. This would support a 95 kt intensity. Since SFMR is still unexpectedly low, NHC might hold back a bit and go with 90 kt. But he is intensifying.

[aspen]

Looks to be holding steady around 968-970mb based on the last few passes. FL winds have gotten up to 105 kt, but SFMR has yet to exceed 75 kt.

[ElectricStorm]

Looks much better than earlier with convection once again being able to wrap all the way around. Now we'll see if it can actually sustain it this time

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Eye appearing on Bermuda radar:

[cycloneye]

Eye appearing on Bermuda radar:

https://i.imgur.com/TGyllt4.png

Do you have the link to the radar?

[lilbump3000]

https://www.youtube.com/@w.o.f.weathero ... irmation=1

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Eye appearing on Bermuda radar:

https://i.imgur.com/TGyllt4.png

Do you have the link to the radar?

https://www.weather.bm/tools/graphics.a ... 0PPI&user=

[MarioProtVI]

Ernesto looking the best it ever has, would not rule out it trying to become a major briefly at the rate it’s going. Could see NHC going 90 kt at 5 based on continued improvement should it hold. Tonight’s recon will be telling…

[PDKlikatino]

Looks like an eye is finally starting to clear out!

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Looks like an eye is finally starting to clear out!

Uh, so where’s that weakening we were meant to have?