ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jasons2k]

Seems to be undergoing eyewall replacement and if successful would mean a stronger storm less influenced by the shear and a more northerly component. Final landfall will likely come down to some wobbles just before landfall, and I’m concerned a stronger northern side of the storm will act to “tug” Milton a couple times north as he approaches the coast.

Long story short: nobody around Tampa Bay should be sounding an all clear.

[CronkPSU]

Just got an evacuation notice for Seminole Co. holy moly.

WESH says it was an ERROR...it is only for mobile homes and places with special needs

[USTropics]

Looks to be rebuilding the eyewall after the collapse

https://i.imgur.com/O0dAT4W.gif

That is what I was thinking - a new, slightly larger eyewall seems to be developing

What we're seeing right now (going back to the ice skater analogy), Milton is quickly and significantly expanding his wind field. Think ice skater extending their arms outwards, it has no choice but for the inner core to broaden (which we are seeing with recon, the diameter has gone from 6nm to something like ~30nm if the new eyewall is able to take over):

[Joe Snow]

Just got an evacuation notice for Seminole Co. holy moly.

WESH says it was an ERROR...it is only for mobile homes and places with special needs

Just saw that but they should of done that yesterday, everyone is freaking out about the alert. My cell phone is blowing up.

[GCANE]

Looks like Milton finished coffee break for the morning.
Back to the gym for hot-tower eyewall building.

[TampaWxLurker]

When is the NHC going to start doing hourly updates?

[GCANE]

CAPE picking up big time.
5000 in the NW quad

[GCANE]

Still maintaining continuous lightning in the core.

[USTropics]

When is the NHC going to start doing hourly updates?

They start hourly updates when there is a trackable feature on radar, so I would say soon (perhaps after 11am advisory).

[xironman]

Not seeing shear tearing away cirrus. Shear gets to the destructive level around 18z but since the vector is close to the storms movement, a lot of that will be mitigated.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Northern side of this storm is really expanding, as expected. This is no longer a tiny hurricane.

[TonyWeatherMan]

I don’t ever post, heck, I hardly even lurk as much as I would like to but this season being what it has been lured me here.

Look everybody. Since yesterday I’ve seeing nonstop downcasting posts either saying “It’s peaked” or now it’s “The worst looking cat 4 I’ve ever seen”. Neither of these statements hold water. We definitely don’t need to be lulling lurkers like myself into a false sense of security.

NHC and local governments have made it profoundly clear how much respect this storm deserves. I’m just saying we should be more mindful of our wording at such a perilous time. My two cents? Milton has defied literally every expectation set for it. PLEASE stop making him say hold my beer and prove us wrong again. We don’t have much more time. His compact tight core and small size are a big part of why this happened IMO.

But lastly….I have never seen a ‘Cane EWRC a pinhole eye. Ever. So again…let’s stop giving Milton reasons to overachieve. Prays and best wishes everyone stay safe and PLEASE evacuate if you’re in the way.

[Bluehawk]

When is the NHC going to start doing hourly updates?

On their latest advisory, they are saying that their first hourly updates will start at 9 AM EDT.

[Michele B]

Milton is about 25 miles east of forecast track.

No sign shear has any effect.

Eye is 8 nm wide.

Latest eyedrop indicates no forthcoming EWRC.

Well into the Loop Current now.

CAPE in SE section of GoM is slowly increasing.

Ionospheric heating has turned back up. Currently over the Mid East

Interested to see what the NHC does with the track. This radar loop and track overlay speak for themselves. Comfortably east of the forecast track like GCANE mentioned and early to the next forecast point

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

Local mets (Ft.Myers) are saying landfall about Manatee/Sarasota County line.

[NDG]

New 6 hour average heading based off latest recon fix gives me 37 deg.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I am seeing a wobble North, maybe even NNW. The hurricane seems to be rapidly expanding in size. Couple that with an EWRC, and we could see a massive hurricane, with very strong gusts to its north/northwest due to baroclinic forcing.

[kevin]

Clear wobble north on IR as the eye filled in. Average heading of the last few hours still takes it to Sarasota.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I don’t ever post, heck, I hardly even lurk as much as I would like to but this season being what it has been lured me here.

Look everybody. Since yesterday I’ve seeing nonstop downcasting posts either saying “It’s peaked” or now it’s “The worst looking cat 4 I’ve ever seen”. Neither of these statements hold water. We definitely don’t need to be lulling lurkers like myself into a false sense of security.

NHC and local governments have made it profoundly clear how much respect this storm deserves. I’m just saying we should be more mindful of our wording at such a perilous time. My two cents? Milton has defied literally every expectation set for it. PLEASE stop making him say hold my beer and prove us wrong again. We don’t have much more time. His compact tight core and small size are a big part of why this happened IMO.

But lastly….I have never seen a ‘Cane EWRC a pinhole eye. Ever. So again…let’s stop giving Milton reasons to overachieve. Prays and best wishes everyone stay safe and PLEASE evacuate if you’re in the way.

I haven't seen that many posts but I agree with your sentiment. I hope mods are able to deal with such posts like that. This is still a Category 5 in terms of impacts. Winds are only a small fraction of the impacts.

[Soluna16]

Pretty significant wobble N, maybe even NNW.

[underthwx]

National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
825 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 500 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

1. Hurricane Milton continues moving northeast into the eastern
Gulf of Mexico this morning as a potentially catastrophic and
devastating category 5 hurricane. The current forecast track brings
it ashore tonight along the stretch of coastline between Tampa
Bay and Charlotte Harbor, continuing northeast across the state
through Thursday morning before exiting into the Atlantic during
the afternoon. Milton has the potential to be one of the most
destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida.

2. Extremely life-threatening storm surge along the west Florida
coast is expected, with storm surge inundation of up to 10 to 15
feet above normally dry ground. Highest surge values will be
sensitive to Milton`s ultimate track and where it crosses the
coast, and will occur along and to the right of Milton`s track. It
should be noted that locations to the left of Milton`s track will
experience strong offshore flow which will likely result in
blowout tide or negative surge conditions, where water is notably
lower than normal. The bottom line is that anyone located within
an evacuation zone under evacuation orders or who has been ordered
to evacuate otherwise should follow the guidance of local
authorities and leave if told to do so. It`s a decision that could
save your life.

3. Destructive and life-threatening winds are expected along the
coast as well as areas further inland, as interaction between
Milton and a jet streak and a frontal boundary to the north will
lead to a rather large expansion of the storm`s overall wind
field. In particular, hurricane force winds to the north of the
center are likely to expand, exposing areas along and north of the
track that may not experience the catastrophic storm surge threat
to destructive winds with gusts well in excess of 100 mph
possible in some locations.

4. Milton will bring heavy rainfall to the entire area as it moves
across the state, with rainfall totaling 6 to 12 inches likely
with isolated totals up to 18 inches possible. This will present a
significant flash flood threat through Thursday which has
resulted in WPC issuing a High Risk for today and tonight,
indicating the potential for widespread flash flooding posing a
significant life-threatening conditions. Greatest threat is
expected along and to the north of Milton track under where the
heaviest rainfall axis is expected, generally along the I-4
corridor and northward into parts of the Nature Coast.
Additionally, ensuing river and stream flooding is likely to
result in area rivers reaching Moderate and Major to potentially
historic flood stages over the coming days as rainfall drains
through area basins.

5. An increasing tornado threat will accompany Milton`s approach
this afternoon and evening as outer bands overspread southern and
central locations. SPC has highlighted all of the central and
southern locations under a Slight Risk, with an Enhanced Risk
associated with the greatest threat area along and south of the
I-4 corridor.

6. If preparations to protect life and property have not yet been
completed, time is now perilously close to running out and they
should be rushed to completion as quickly as possible, as
conditions will begin deteriorating as early as later this
morning into the afternoon as impacts from Milton begin moving
into the area. It cannot be stressed enough to please follow the
guidance of local authorities and evacuate if told to do so, as
it may ultimately prove to be life-saving.