ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Pipelines182]

So do we have a better idea yet where this is going? Girlfriend's parents live in St Pete Beach. They booked a flight on monday to evacuate tuesday, but all flights got cancelled. They are headed up by Seminole and a few miles inland to stay with a family member. They didn't have a car because it was totaled during Helene. I'm getting very worried for them.

Still looks just south of Tampa. The crazy thing is, Helene might have done more damage to St Pete than Milton does if trends hold. Landfall south of Tampa would cause almost no surge at all in St Pete.

[cheezyWXguy]

So far the EWRC seems to be progressing successfully. Key West radar shows velocities increasing in the outer eyewall and the cdo is retaining its roundness on satellite despite the increase in shear.

[underthwx]

Everyone not in the path of this hurricane please pray for us....our local media is really downplaying this thing I am ready staying at home non evac not on the coast hope we make it ok.
Tim

I assure you that you are in my prayers my friend.....I can't speak to media hype...or whatever misleading info that has been made public....but as for you....stay tuned to the NHC and Storm 2K.....on 2K we all have access to real time information right here.....
.

[NDG]

Not sure if I told you guys my heart hurts for Ana Maria, among the other Islands around Sarasota down to Venice.
But Ana Maria has always been my favorite because it almost sits as if in the middle of the Ocean between the Gulf and Tampa Bay.
Unfortunately I feel that many buildings are going to be wiped off their foundation because of where it sits, especially if the eye of Milton tracks over the Island they will get a surge from both directions. Being that is such a low lying island the storm surge is going to go through the Island without a problem.
I feel bad for one of my cousins and my aunt who live in the Island right on the water. They already had damage to two of their houses that sit on the ground, one of the houses located right on Bean Point he had it for sale on the market before Helene, he had 3' of water in it. Check out how beautiful that house was. I had the pleasure to stay there a couple of times a few years ago.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/865- ... 3687_zpid/

Some of our people have been out there after Helene. There were homes east of Gulf Drive with 5 feet of sand in their living room. The infrastructure is a mess. I have been fishing many a time on that fishing pier so losing it is going to be heartbreaking. One of my customers has a house off Palma Sola Bay and he just took his dog, clothes, papers and bugged out. He knows it's a goner if the surge forecasts are correct. This is going to be a tough time for us long time natives and residents.

This is his new house he built last year, I think it should be safe as long as the surge doesn't get any higher than 10". The contractor dug the pilings it sits on 30' deep.
The view from his third floor was spectacular.

[SVT1118]

So do we have a better idea yet where this is going? Girlfriend's parents live in St Pete Beach. They booked a flight on monday to evacuate tuesday, but all flights got cancelled. They are headed up by Seminole and a few miles inland to stay with a family member. They didn't have a car because it was totaled during Helene. I'm getting very worried for them.

Still looks just south of Tampa. The crazy thing is, Helene might have done more damage to St Pete than Milton does if trends hold. Landfall south of Tampa would cause no surge at all in St Pete.

I can't believe this is happening back to back. We were still going to go to SPB this week, even after Helene. But once I saw this system shaping up I cancelled the trip. SPB was starting to build back and it looks like it was all going to be a wasted effort. This is terrible.

[tolakram]

Everyone not in the path of this hurricane please pray for us....our local media is really downplaying this thing I am ready staying at home non evac not on the coast hope we make it ok.
Tim

I doubt the media is downplaying this. Good luck, stay safe.

[Xyls]

Watching the tornadoes on Evan Fryberger's stream. And these are some big, violent tornadoes. I know the SPC has a 10% hatched risk for some very populated areas of central Florida later today. If these current ones out in the Everglades are any indication we could see some records for intense tornadoes associated with a hurricane later today as one of these was a wedge and looked like violent EF3+ tornado. This may be an underplayed risk today beyond Tampa which may get overlooked.

[jasons2k]

I’m looking at hi-res images from mesoscale floater, and I’m not seeing evidence of any shear yet immediately north and west of the core. The bubbling convection is not getting the tops chopped off. Milton is still in a pocket to keep going for awhile. Northward he goes…

[kevin]

NOAA3 is wobbling in circles to the SW of the storm. Not sure if they're trying to do more measurements there for some reason or if they're having turbulence issues. Meanwhile AF305 is also entering Milton.

[underthwx]

Everyone not in the path of this hurricane please pray for us....our local media is really downplaying this thing I am ready staying at home non evac not on the coast hope we make it ok.
Tim

I assure you that you are in my prayers my friend.....I can't speak to media hype...or whatever misleading info that has been made public...they have a responsibility to pass along to the public...the facts concerning Milton.....but as for you....stay tuned to the NHC and Storm 2K.....on 2K we all have access to real time information right here.....
.

[jlauderdal]

Watching the tornadoes on Evan Fryberger's stream. And these are some big, violent tornadoes. I know the SPC has a 10% hatched risk for some very populated areas of central Florida later today. If these current ones out in the Everglades are any indication we could see some records for intense tornadoes associated with a hurricane later today as one of these was a wedge and looked like violent EF3+ tornado. This may be an underplayed risk today beyond Tampa which may get overlooked.

That tornado is very different than waht we typically see in Florida, if you haven experienced a midwest tornado, thats what they can look like.

[LadyBug72]

Everyone not in the path of this hurricane please pray for us....our local media is really downplaying this thing I am ready staying at home non evac not on the coast hope we make it ok.
Tim

Praying for you and all of Florida!

[loon]

I’m looking at hi-res images from mesoscale floater, and I’m not seeing evidence of any shear yet immediately north and west of the core. The bubbling convection is not getting the tops chopped off. Milton is still in a pocket to keep going for awhile. Northward he goes…

Was just about to comment on the rather northward turn here for the last while on the Floater... large correction behing made right now. Even the convection burst to its NNE isn't getting blown about yet...

[Soluna16]

White line appears to be the heading extrapolated from the last 2 hours.

[toad strangler]

Just finished my shutters in Port St. Lucie. Better safe than sorry! Could see hurricane strength GUSTS here later...

[NDG]

Everyone not in the path of this hurricane please pray for us....our local media is really downplaying this thing I am ready staying at home non evac not on the coast hope we make it ok.
Tim

I doubt the media is downplaying this. Good luck, stay safe.

Unfortunately TV Mets in the Tampa area almost sounded they were saying the all clear for Tampa Bay when the Interpolated Models trended south of Sarasota yesterday. I had to turn off their channel on YouTube.
I know they try to look for any positive news for their audience but at end they show what the official track is and what the official forecasted conditions will be.

[kevin]

Still waiting for recon to confirm, but IR seems to indicate that Milton's has shifted 0.2 - 0.3 degrees NW due to the EWRC. Anyone with a good radar link who can confirm?

13:12z


14:02z

[underthwx]

Everyone not in the path of this hurricane please pray for us....our local media is really downplaying this thing I am ready staying at home non evac not on the coast hope we make it ok.
Tim

I assure you that you are in my prayers my friend.....I can't speak to media hype...or whatever misleading info that has been made public...they have a responsibility to pass along to the public...the facts concerning Milton.....but as for you....stay tuned to the NHC and Storm 2K.....on 2K we all have access to real time information right here.....
.

Somehow...I quoted myself while editing my previous post....im not a very technical type....my apologies

[TonyWeatherMan]

I don’t ever post, heck, I hardly even lurk as much as I would like to but this season being what it has been lured me here.

Look everybody. Since yesterday I’ve seeing nonstop downcasting posts either saying “It’s peaked” or now it’s “The worst looking cat 4 I’ve ever seen”. Neither of these statements hold water. We definitely don’t need to be lulling lurkers like myself into a false sense of security.

NHC and local governments have made it profoundly clear how much respect this storm deserves. I’m just saying we should be more mindful of our wording at such a perilous time. My two cents? Milton has defied literally every expectation set for it. PLEASE stop making him say hold my beer and prove us wrong again. We don’t have much more time. His compact tight core and small size are a big part of why this happened IMO.

But lastly….I have never seen a ‘Cane EWRC a pinhole eye. Ever. So again…let’s stop giving Milton reasons to overachieve. Prays and best wishes everyone stay safe and PLEASE evacuate if you’re in the way.

Tony, I agree with your sentiment. But one correction - many hurricanes with pinhole eyes undergo ERC. Wilma famously went through several, expanding from the smallest eye on record to a colossal truck tire eye by the time it passed over southern florida.

I was not incorrect, you just heard incorrectly. I said EWRC a pinhole eye. As in Milton Pinholed into a Pinhole. Usually, it’s a Pinhole into a giant eye correct.

[GCANE]

PDS Issued

 https://x.com/NWStornado/status/1844019144909627585