ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Not sure if I told you guys my heart hurts for Ana Maria, among the other Islands around Sarasota down to Venice.
But Ana Maria has always been my favorite because it almost sits as if in the middle of the Ocean between the Gulf and Tampa Bay.
Unfortunately I feel that many buildings are going to be wiped off their foundation because of where it sits, especially if the eye of Milton tracks over the Island they will get a surge from both directions. Being that is such a low lying island the storm surge is going to go through the Island without a problem.
I feel bad for one of my cousins and my aunt who live in the Island right on the water. They already had damage to two of their houses that sit on the ground, one of the houses located right on Bean Point he had it for sale on the market before Helene, he had 3' of water in it. Check out how beautiful that house was. I had the pleasure to stay there a couple of times a few years ago.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/865- ... 3687_zpid/

Crazy to me that you are allowed to build houses like that. In Bermuda that would never get approved precisely because what your aunt experienced. American has such unsustainable building codes. They really should demand more resilience.

[NDG]

Still waiting for recon to confirm, but IR seems to indicate that Milton's has shifted 0.2 - 0.3 degrees NW due to the EWRC. Anyone with a good radar link who can confirm?

13:12z
https://i.imgur.com/VZfOqv2.jpeg

14:02z
https://i.imgur.com/BhMHugo.jpeg

I can confirm that it has been moving on a more NNE heading the last couple of hours based on radar.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I’m looking at hi-res images from mesoscale floater, and I’m not seeing evidence of any shear yet immediately north and west of the core. The bubbling convection is not getting the tops chopped off. Milton is still in a pocket to keep going for awhile. Northward he goes…

I think it's a strong possibility that the shear calvary wont make it there in time.

[Teban54]

Just an hour or so ago, msot comments here were about how Milton was deviating south or east of forecast. And now we have people concerned it's wobbling to the north.

[NDG]

Not sure if I told you guys my heart hurts for Ana Maria, among the other Islands around Sarasota down to Venice.
But Ana Maria has always been my favorite because it almost sits as if in the middle of the Ocean between the Gulf and Tampa Bay.
Unfortunately I feel that many buildings are going to be wiped off their foundation because of where it sits, especially if the eye of Milton tracks over the Island they will get a surge from both directions. Being that is such a low lying island the storm surge is going to go through the Island without a problem.
I feel bad for one of my cousins and my aunt who live in the Island right on the water. They already had damage to two of their houses that sit on the ground, one of the houses located right on Bean Point he had it for sale on the market before Helene, he had 3' of water in it. Check out how beautiful that house was. I had the pleasure to stay there a couple of times a few years ago.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/865- ... 3687_zpid/

Crazy to me that you are allowed to build houses like that. In Bermuda that would never get approved precisely because what your aunt experienced. American has such unsustainable building codes. They really should demand more resilience.

The house he has for sale is a house that was built in the 50s, they are grandfathered in, it was just newly renovated, but he should had invested some money in raising it about the ground but the problem would be that it a surge could still damage it because the pilings would not be deep enough.
The new codes for construction are a lot more strict on the coast now.

[Xyls]

Another violent wedge tornado on the ground heading north if this stays on the ground it is heading for the city of Clewiston. I don't know what Florida has in the way of basements this is NOT good...

[NDG]

Just an hour or so ago, msot comments here were about how Milton was deviating south or east of forecast. And now we have people concerned it's wobbling to the north.

Before the more wobble to the north, the heading was still pointing to Tampa Bay area like wxman57 also mentioned.

[TonyWeatherMan]

I hate to say this but….worst fears are coming to fruition here. Milton will likely not lose much strength at all from here going inland. It’s crazy to me seeing people saying it looks “Raggedy” because man….for a storm in such an environment so close to landfall this is definitely one of the better looking ones I’ve seen.

Milton continues to defy all expectations. Old conventional wisdom about Canes says the truly powerful ones aren’t bullied by their environment, they ARE the bully.

[underthwx]

Not sure if I told you guys my heart hurts for Ana Maria, among the other Islands around Sarasota down to Venice.
But Ana Maria has always been my favorite because it almost sits as if in the middle of the Ocean between the Gulf and Tampa Bay.
Unfortunately I feel that many buildings are going to be wiped off their foundation because of where it sits, especially if the eye of Milton tracks over the Island they will get a surge from both directions. Being that is such a low lying island the storm surge is going to go through the Island without a problem.
I feel bad for one of my cousins and my aunt who live in the Island right on the water. They already had damage to two of their houses that sit on the ground, one of the houses located right on Bean Point he had it for sale on the market before Helene, he had 3' of water in it. Check out how beautiful that house was. I had the pleasure to stay there a couple of times a few years ago.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/865- ... 3687_zpid/

Crazy to me that you are allowed to build houses like that. In Bermuda that would never get approved precisely because what your aunt experienced. American has such unsustainable building codes. They really should demand more resilience.

I am assuming that Ana Maria has been totally evacuated...correct?....that area may be subject to 10-15 foot predicted surge...as illustrated by the NHC....please correct me if I am wrong....

[Snowman67]

Can someone please post a link to a site that shows the actual track of Milton with overlayed NHC plot points? Thanks.

[Kazmit]

While Milton was well right of track last night, it seems to have corrected itself to the NHC's track. Perhaps a hair still right, need recon to confirm. If it keeps this heading, it will shortly be left of the forecast track. I never used to be much of a wobble-watcher, but I sure am for this one.

[Powellrm]

Just an hour or so ago, msot comments here were about how Milton was deviating south or east of forecast. And now we have people concerned it's wobbling to the north.

People are going to drive themselves crazy with the wobble watching. Not to diminish anyone’s anxiety or the implications of the track shifting by any means.

Edit: any reduced surge into Tampa is a blessing, but it’s still going to have to go somewhere unfortunately

[skillz305]

We are paying too much attention to wobbles but wobble watching is definitely addicting. Still perfectly in line.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Milton looks perfectly on track... Sarasota/Bradenton landfall, maybe as far north as Anna Maria Island.

[Xyls]

Just an hour or so ago, msot comments here were about how Milton was deviating south or east of forecast. And now we have people concerned it's wobbling to the north.

People are going to drive themselves crazy with the wobble watching. Not to diminish anyone’s anxiety or the implications of the track shifting by any means.

I'm not even watching the wobbles right now. I'm watching these supercells south of Lake Okeechobee and that's what giving me anxiety. If these go off as predicted north of the lake where there is far more population this could be massively life threatening. Very worried for the Sebring and Highlands County areas for tornadoes later today.

[SpaceCowboy]

[imgur]https://imgur.com/a/75y0rvF[/imgur]

From the local broadcast. Things already feel like they’re stirring up here. Gonna be an interesting day.

Thinking about all the fam on the west coast. If you decided to stay your in my thoughts.

I’m a long time viewer and a very new poster so I think I posted the IMGUR link incorrectly - I’m sorry!

[kevin]

I agree that it is now on track. But it was well SE of track before, which means that its current heading is more north than the slope of the forecast line. Not trying to doomcast, but I'm anxious that it'll go even further north soon.

[Mike33534]

[ScottNAtlanta]

This is still a safe space for wobble watchers (anonymous)

[Bluehawk]

Tornado warning for where we live (West Boca), with radar and video-confirmed tornado on mile marker 30 on Alligator Alley. On one of the tornado tracker apps, I can see four active spots west of us, towards the Everglades. What is my next-door neighbor doing? Mowing his yard.