ATL: BERYL - Models

[jaguars_22]

Very funny… now a cold front could protect Texas… a few hours ago it was a high pressure… what month are we truly in lol

[Stratton23]

Well that CMC run is a steaming pile of crap, almost 60 mb too high , very very bad initialization leads to a bad run

[ROCK]

0Z GFS smacks Jam head in this run. Looks more north than the 18Z.

[ROCK]

Well that CMC run is a steaming pile of crap, almost 60 mb too high , very very bad initialization leads to a bad run

Agree…however the CMC has been sniffing more north than any other globals in the past few days.

[txag2005]

Well that CMC run is a steaming pile of crap, almost 60 mb too high , very very bad initialization leads to a bad run

Agree…however the CMC has been sniffing more north than any other globals in the past few days.

I was just about to post that the CMC is tracking a little south compared to 12z/0z from last night. It may not make a difference in the end, especially if this run is bad, but that stands out compared to everything else seeming to shift north today.

[HurricaneBrain]

GFS with a decent shift up the Texas coastline into Corpus. I’m not buying the degradation into a depression/open wave after it crosses the Yucatán. This run has Beryl as a cat 1 approaching Jamaica and we have pretty fair agreement that won’t be the case. I see a stronger storm crossing the Yucatán with degradation to a cat 1 as she enters the BOC/Gulf.

[ColdMiser123]

Significant shift north into Texas on the UKMET

HURRICANE BERYL ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 63.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.07.2024 0 13.6N 63.8W 965 95
1200UTC 02.07.2024 12 15.2N 67.7W 977 78
0000UTC 03.07.2024 24 16.3N 71.6W 985 69
1200UTC 03.07.2024 36 17.0N 75.3W 995 51
0000UTC 04.07.2024 48 18.2N 78.8W 1000 47
1200UTC 04.07.2024 60 19.2N 82.7W 1002 42
0000UTC 05.07.2024 72 20.0N 86.0W 1002 40
1200UTC 05.07.2024 84 21.3N 89.0W 1005 39
0000UTC 06.07.2024 96 22.2N 91.6W 1003 35
1200UTC 06.07.2024 108 24.2N 93.8W 1002 38
0000UTC 07.07.2024 120 25.5N 95.6W 998 36
1200UTC 07.07.2024 132 26.3N 96.5W 994 49
0000UTC 08.07.2024 144 27.2N 97.0W 994 51
1200UTC 08.07.2024 156 28.9N 97.3W 995 38
0000UTC 09.07.2024 168 29.7N 98.3W 998 30

[txag2005]

GFS comes ashore around Corpus Christi.

CMC goes into northern Mexico, bucking the north shift trend as it's 0z run last night was South Texas and 12z looked to be extreme northern Mexico near the US border. Then again, there may be issues with this run, so who knows.

[hurricane2025]

CMC usually does this when it’s way wrong

[captainbarbossa19]

Significant shift north into Texas on the UKMET

HURRICANE BERYL ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 63.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.07.2024 0 13.6N 63.8W 965 95
1200UTC 02.07.2024 12 15.2N 67.7W 977 78
0000UTC 03.07.2024 24 16.3N 71.6W 985 69
1200UTC 03.07.2024 36 17.0N 75.3W 995 51
0000UTC 04.07.2024 48 18.2N 78.8W 1000 47
1200UTC 04.07.2024 60 19.2N 82.7W 1002 42
0000UTC 05.07.2024 72 20.0N 86.0W 1002 40
1200UTC 05.07.2024 84 21.3N 89.0W 1005 39
0000UTC 06.07.2024 96 22.2N 91.6W 1003 35
1200UTC 06.07.2024 108 24.2N 93.8W 1002 38
0000UTC 07.07.2024 120 25.5N 95.6W 998 36
1200UTC 07.07.2024 132 26.3N 96.5W 994 49
0000UTC 08.07.2024 144 27.2N 97.0W 994 51
1200UTC 08.07.2024 156 28.9N 97.3W 995 38
0000UTC 09.07.2024 168 29.7N 98.3W 998 30

I believe this is the first run of the UKMET showing Texas impacts. The Euro and UKMET often work in tandem.

[Stratton23]

Current pressure of the hurricane is around 931-933 mb
New Euro run initializez it at 985 mb, wow the globals are doing absolutely awful right now with intensity

[LarryWx]

Significant shift north into Texas on the UKMET

HURRICANE BERYL ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 63.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.07.2024 0 13.6N 63.8W 965 95
1200UTC 02.07.2024 12 15.2N 67.7W 977 78
0000UTC 03.07.2024 24 16.3N 71.6W 985 69
1200UTC 03.07.2024 36 17.0N 75.3W 995 51
0000UTC 04.07.2024 48 18.2N 78.8W 1000 47
1200UTC 04.07.2024 60 19.2N 82.7W 1002 42
0000UTC 05.07.2024 72 20.0N 86.0W 1002 40
1200UTC 05.07.2024 84 21.3N 89.0W 1005 39
0000UTC 06.07.2024 96 22.2N 91.6W 1003 35
1200UTC 06.07.2024 108 24.2N 93.8W 1002 38
0000UTC 07.07.2024 120 25.5N 95.6W 998 36
1200UTC 07.07.2024 132 26.3N 96.5W 994 49
0000UTC 08.07.2024 144 27.2N 97.0W 994 51
1200UTC 08.07.2024 156 28.9N 97.3W 995 38
0000UTC 09.07.2024 168 29.7N 98.3W 998 30

I believe this is the first run of the UKMET showing Texas impacts. The Euro and UKMET often work in tandem.

It’s also now skirting S coast of Jamaica, about the worst possible track for them. Would be worst hit there since Dean of 2007.

[IcyTundra]

0Z Euro is further north than the 12Z. Makes landfall in Tampico next Tuesday due to weak steering once Beryl reaches the Gulf.

[Edwards Limestone]

[Nimbus]

GFS with a decent shift up the Texas coastline into Corpus. I’m not buying the degradation into a depression/open wave after it crosses the Yucatán. This run has Beryl as a cat 1 approaching Jamaica and we have pretty fair agreement that won’t be the case. I see a stronger storm crossing the Yucatán with degradation to a cat 1 as she enters the BOC/Gulf.

00Z HWRF shows shear near Jamaica dropping the intensity but still crosses Yucatan near Cozumel with reintensification down to the 970's and probably lower as it tracks towards Texas coast.

Just one ruin though and the high cirrus clouds are shearing pretty severely near Jamaica currently.

[SconnieCane]

Recent HAFS-A run basically completely obliterates the hurricane due to shear around the time it gets close to Jamaica...best case scenario for them and the Yucatan. However, the models have been waffling a lot on the amount of disruption this shear will do.

[tolakram]

I don't know what to expect from any of the older lower resolution globals at this point. Even the Euro init was too high pressure so are these even useful other than for upper air environment. And for upper air, can they model a moderate size cat 5 modifying the upper air pattern? /shrug

[Javlin]

There is wind shear out there but when you look at this 5 day loop it looks like beryl keeps moving/making it's own environment?Today will tell the story maybe?

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... _loop.html

Shear Tendency

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... _loop.html

[kevin]

06z models

HWRF: weakens to 955mb/115kt before grazing Jamaica, 980mb/62kt Yucatan landfall, 985mb/60kt at the end of the run nearing the Mexico/US border.
HMON: weakens to 963mb/100kt before passing south of Jamaica, 982mb/60kt Yucatan landfall, 973mb/85kt landfall in northern Mexico.
HAFS-A: weakens to 975mb/94kt before making landfall in southern Jamaica, 982mb/59kt Yucatan landfall, 971mb/75kt at the end of the run nearing southern Texas.
HAFS-B: weakens to 951mb/125kt before grazing Jamaica, 976mb/66kt Yucatan landfall, 970mb/75kt landfall in northern Mexico.

Blend of these 4 runs: weakening to 960mb/110kt before grazing Jamaica, 980mb/60kt Yucatan landfall, 975mb/75kt while making landfall somewhere near the Mexico/US border.

[Pas_Bon]

Very funny… now a cold front could protect Texas… a few hours ago it was a high pressure… what month are we truly in lol

I'm in Galveston County, Tx. We will either get hurricane conditions or snow.

I'm kidding.