ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

Looks like an eye is finally starting to clear out!

Uh, so where’s that weakening we were meant to have?

It’ll probably happen tomorrow. All the hurricane models show shear getting even worse and devastating whatever internal structure Ernesto has managed to pull together, with a chance for some re-organization on Sunday before extratropical transition begins on Monday.

[kevin]

Wouldn't be surprised if Ernesto is 90 - 95 kt right now. The upcoming recon mission (should arrive in about 4 hours) probably has the best shot to capture Ernesto's peak intensity (at least in terms of wind speed). Kinda weird to see Ernesto looking so healthy right now. Unfortunate for Bermuda though, would've much preferred if it overperformed early-on and then weakened.

[WeatherBoy2000]

 https://x.com/DCAreaWx/status/1824522728520429692

[Sciencerocks]

[Hammy]

Seems like Ernesto, like Debby, is underperforming the intensity forecasts, which (while a bit off topic) makes me wonder if we're starting to see a trend--storms that peak in the tropics outperform the models (Alberto and Beryl, where Chris was largely expected not to form at all) and storms that peak in the subtropics underperform somewhat (Beryl's Gulf of Mexico intensity/model forecasts were also higher than the actual landfall intensity) and struggle to put a tighter core together

[Kazmit]

Bermuda weather service is already reporting tropical storm force conditions.

[Ubuntwo]

Seems like Ernesto, like Debby, is underperforming the intensity forecasts, which (while a bit off topic) makes me wonder if we're starting to see a trend--storms that peak in the tropics outperform the models (Alberto and Beryl, where Chris was largely expected not to form at all) and storms that peak in the subtropics underperform somewhat (Beryl's Gulf of Mexico intensity/model forecasts were also higher than the actual landfall intensity) and struggle to put a tighter core together

Per UAlbany verification reports, Debby was forecast quite well intensity-wise and only the official forecast had a (very minor) high bias at all lead times. NHC was using their own judgement with the 80kt forecast, the hurricane models were lingering around 70kt peak at that time.


I digress. I think there is some merit that we're moving away from the subtropics-heavy past half decade+.

[Hurrilurker]

Conditions already getting pretty rough in Bermuda. (Webcam, it's currently cutting in and out, maybe from the storm, maybe traffic too high)

https://www.portbermudawebcam.com

[hipshot]

Conditions already getting pretty rough in Bermuda. (Webcam, it's currently cutting in and out, maybe from the storm, maybe traffic too high)

https://www.portbermudawebcam.com

How far out is Ernesto from Bermuda? It is looking rough for sure.

[LarryWx]

Conditions already getting pretty rough in Bermuda. (Webcam, it's currently cutting in and out, maybe from the storm, maybe traffic too high)

https://www.portbermudawebcam.com

How far out is Ernesto from Bermuda? It is looking rough for sure.

Center is 110 miles away

[Nimbus]

Bermuda weather service is already reporting tropical storm force conditions.

Ernesto is passing to the east of Bermuda so that should drop the max winds.
Lots of rain though and power outages start occuring with even tropical storm strength winds.

[weeniepatrol]

Holy outflow

[aspen]

967.0 extrap from AF301. Looks to have remained steady since last flight.

[IcyTundra]

Bermuda weather service is already reporting tropical storm force conditions.

Ernesto is passing to the east of Bermuda so that should drop the max winds.
Lots of rain though and power outages start occuring with even tropical storm strength winds.

NHC's forecast has Ernesto passing to the west of Bermuda.

[Nimbus]

Bermuda weather service is already reporting tropical storm force conditions.

Ernesto is passing to the east of Bermuda so that should drop the max winds.
Lots of rain though and power outages start occuring with even tropical storm strength winds.

NHC's forecast has Ernesto passing to the west of Bermuda.

[hipshot]

Ernesto is passing to the east of Bermuda so that should drop the max winds.
Lots of rain though and power outages start occuring with even tropical storm strength winds.

NHC's forecast has Ernesto passing to the west of Bermuda.

https://i.imgur.com/lBYBxLI.jpeg

Ernesto is so big, I don't think it matters that much

[Nimbus]

NHC's forecast has Ernesto passing to the west of Bermuda.

https://i.imgur.com/lBYBxLI.jpeg

Ernesto is so big, I don't think it matters that much

Probably some 70 knot winds on approach and if Ernesto slows down peak intensity doesn't matter much.

[weeniepatrol]

Bell hasn't rung and we still tacked on yet another hurricane. This one is a very large cat 2 peak.

[Hurricane Mike]

11pm video on Ernesto
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q2Y_9DNyjkQ

[Kazmit]

That northern eyewall is imminent. Looks real nasty.